저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국의 재정적자·무역적자 확대와 머니프린팅으로 달러가 약세로 갈 것이며, 이는 원자재·유가 상승과 신흥국 증시 강세로 이어진다는 주장. 달러 약세 전망: 바이든 행정부 출범과 민주당의 상원 장악으로 재정지출이 트럼프 때보다 더 커질 것이며 연준의 화폐 발행이 늘어 달러 공급이 급증한다고 봄. 따라서 달러는 상승하기 어렵다고 주장. 금리와 원자재: 30년물 국채금리가 2%에 근접했고, 연준이 이를 인위적으로 억제하기 위해 국채 매입을 확대할 것이라고 전망. 구리·곡물 등 원자재가 5년 만의 고점을 기록하며 인플레이션 신호라고 설명. 유가 전망: 유가가 배럴당 53달러를 넘었고 추가 상승을 예상. 미국 셰일 투자 위축과 바이든 행정부의 규제 강화로 국내 생산 비용이 올라 무역적자가 더 커질 것이라 주장. 배럴 100달러 재도달 가능성 언급. 재정·정책: 바이든의 4,000억 달러 청정에너지 부양책은 시작에 불과하며 더 커질 것이라는 견해. 미국은 기존 약속도 감당하기 어려울 만큼 재정이 취약하다고 평가. 신흥국: 달러 약세는 달러 표시 부채 부담을 줄여 신흥국에 최대 호재. 신흥국 통화 강세로 해외 자금 유입이 예상되며, 신흥국 중앙은행들도 이번에는 통화 강세를 막지 않을 것이라고 전망.
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right you know we have record trade deficits we have record budget deficits and none of those are going to get better uh now that biden is coming in and in fact we just had the special elections uh in january and now the democrats have the senate so you have a democratic congress a democratic president uh you know these guys are going to spend even more than trump did and trump was a record spender and record borrower a cheerleader for money printing and you know certainly you're going to have an even bigger cheerleader now that biden's there i mean this whole team it's all about mmt and you know free this and free that and so i don't see how the dollar is going to rise in this environment you know look at look at what's happening at commodity prices across the board you have commodities hitting five year highs you know from the industrial metals like copper to the grains corn wheat soybeans i mean everything is going up and it's not because we have this booming economy you know we still have covid this is all inflation it is money printing that is driving the increase in prices i don't see how the dollar can thrive in an environment like that and look at what's happening to interest rates the the 30-year treasury is knocking on the door of 2 and if the fed lets it get through two percent it can make a b line for three or four and the the over leveraged economy can't handle that higher rate even though historically it's still low so the fed is going to have to print as much money as necessary to artificially suppress long-term interest rates which means massive creation of dollars to buy more treasuries how do you get a stronger dollar when the supply of dollars is going to go through the roof i mean it's basic supply and demand if you get a lot more dollars those dollars don't become more valuable they become less valuable i'm with you okay so there's a bunch of stuff in there i want to unpack and beginning yeah with the runoff in georgia democrats taking the senate biden is now going to get approval likely for his 400 billion dollar clean energy stimulus right supposed to be distributed over the next 10 years do you think that's the the whole the whole picture though i was talking to eb tucker yesterday i mentioned the 400 billion dollar promise towards clean energy and he's like that's just the appetizer get ready you know it's going to be way bigger than that yeah look you know what these guys don't realize though is that we're broke i mean we can't even afford to make good on the promises that we've already made let alone the new ones that the democrats have you know already bribed the electorate with and you know look at what's happening oil prices you know oil prices went above 53 a barrel uh yesterday um who knows where they're gonna be uh you know uh you know soon but i think the prices are headed much higher for oil uh people are gonna be very surprised i think by the oil price but you know the the big difference you know we had a hundred dollar barrel oil years ago but that's when the u.s fracking boom was really going and so we were producing a lot of our own oil and so we didn't have to import as much but i think that the next time oil hits a hundred dollars a barrel which could happen to this year we're going to be importing record amounts i mean our industry is a shadow of what it was the last time oil was at 100 and it's not coming back it's not like all of a sudden oil prices are going to go up and then we're going to start drilling again you know a lot of money was lost by investors the last time because that oil was very expensive to get out of the ground and and so i don't think the investment community is going to you know step up again uh given how much they've already lost plus i think that it's very likely that the biden administration is going to further increase the cost of domestic production with more regulation uh you know so they don't like drilling they don't like expiration they don't like fracking anyway and so it's going to get more expensive and so our record trade deficits and in the trade deficit is at a record high despite donald trump's promises when he campaigned he is leaving the office with the trade deficit much higher than when he took office i mean it's record in in goods it's all-time record highs and i think it's going to soar when we have to pay for a hundred dollar oil to import and so that's just gonna put more downward pressure on the dollar as it puts upward pressure on trade deficits and interest rates right how much uh will do you think how much will the oil price be impacted peter when we're allowed to travel again like do you think there's a lot of pent up demand right now recreational business travel it's just you know we can't we can't go anywhere right but that demand it hasn't left i mean i'm happy to stay at home a lot of people aren't you know yeah i mean obviously as more people travel the you know demand for for energy will will pick up and and i think people will return to traveling i think it may be a more gradual return than people expect but remember there's also been a big reduction in supply and so you have two sides of the equation to determine price you know and so if supply has gone down more than demand prices can still go up and i think that's what's going to happen and of course if the dollar continues to fall which is what i believe will happen that increases demand for oil outside the united states not necessarily for travel but for other things and it certainly is possible that the rest of the world could start traveling long before americans do okay so i know another trade you're watching and participating in is the emerging markets trade talk to me about the relationship between a falling dollar and the emerging markets trade peter yeah a weak dollar is the best thing that could happen to the emerging markets because it was a strong dollar that uh was so detrimental so it it's it's the strong dollar that was hurting emerging markets because a lot of the emerging market companies have us dollar genomic debt and as the dollar strengthens that made it harder to service the debt certainly harder to repay it uh it would put downward pressure on their currencies which might put upward pressure on domestic inflation rates which might force central banks to have to raise rates even if the economy was weak in order to uh you know support their currency and fight inflation so the strong dollar was a major headwind uh the weak dollar is a reversal of all that it becomes a huge tailwind for uh the emerging markets because now all of their dollar denominated debt becomes easier to service and cheaper to repay yeah and they if commodities go up and if they're exporting commodities then their terms of trade improves and of course as their currencies start to rise now emerging markets look more attractive to global investors who want to participate in those strengthening currencies and so the money flows into those markets and why i think the emerging markets are going to be particularly strong this time is because if you go back to the last time there was a lot of money flowing into the emerging markets when there was a weak dollar uh a lot of these emerging market uh governments and central banks were worried that their currencies were getting too strong and you know they had the currency war everybody was worried that they would somehow lose a competitive edge in exporting to the us and so they were trying to fight uh the rising currencies i don't think they're going to do that this time i i think these emerging markets are going to be happy to see the us dollar decline
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