저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
요약 결론: 피터 쉬프는 달러 체제가 인플레이션과 함께 2008년보다 훨씬 큰 위기로 붕괴할 것이며, 연준은 이를 막을 수단이 없다고 주장한다. 과거 경고 이력: 쉬프는 주택 버블과 금융위기를 오래전부터 경고해 왔으나 벤 버냉키, 재닛 옐런 등 연준은 이를 일축했다고 회상한다. 서브프라임 붕괴 후에도 '봉쇄되어 있다'는 낙관이 이어졌고, 실제 위기는 2008년 리먼 파산 등 대형 붕괴 후에야 인정됐다. 현재 인플레이션 판단: 정부의 CPI는 실제 물가 상승을 축소해 보여주며, 이미 가격 급등이 광범위하게 나타나고 있다고 본다. 연준은 이를 '일시적'이라고 말하지만 쉬프는 동의하지 않는다. 위기 전망: 이번 위기는 2008년보다 훨씬 크고 경제 전반에 더 큰 영향을 줄 것이라고 주장한다. 이번에는 구제금융(bailout)이 불가능한데, 문제의 핵심이 달러 자체의 붕괴이기 때문이다. 돈을 더 찍어도 달러 붕괴만 가속한다. 연준 도구 논쟁: 연준 이사 브레이너드(Brainard)가 '도구상자에 수단이 있어 인플레이션을 낮출 수 있다'고 말한 데 대해 쉬프는 반박한다. 폴 볼커도 금리를 20%까지 올려야 했으며, 현재 연준은 선제적 대응을 하지 않겠다고 밝혀 '인플레이션 지니'가 병에서 나온 뒤 대응하는 셈이 된다. 금리 딜레마: 금리가 사실상 0인 상태에서 5~6% 이상 인플레이션을 잡으려면 금리를 한 번에 크게 올려야 하지만, 누적된 부채 때문에 경제가 붕괴하지 않고는 불가능하다고 본다. 결론적 평가: 연준의 인플레이션 대응은 허세(bluff)에 불과하며, 연준이 '싸울 수 없다'는 사실을 인정하지도 못하는 상황이 문제를 더 빨리 키운다고 주장한다. 종목/자산별 언급: 쉬프는 개별 종목 매수·매도 추천을 하지 않았고, 달러·인플레이션·연준 정책 중심 논의에 집중했다. 리스크: 달러 붕괴, 인플레이션 폭등, 부채 위기, 연준 정책 실패가 핵심 리스크로 제시된다. 출연자 전망: 극단적 비관론(달러 붕괴·2008보다 큰 위기)을 장기적 관점에서 제시하며, 1~3개월 단기 가격 방향 예측은 명시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
peter schiff was right again and that's the next guest on right now peter schiff uh thanks for joining us today on usa watchdog you've been warning about now the inflation what's going on yeah well first of all the problem with the next peter schiff was right video is they don't have all the footage of everybody laughing at me as i make these predictions because all those major new news networks that used to have me on to make fun of me don't have me on anymore and and so i we don't have the material to or whoever you know that the peter ship was right video was actually produced independently i forget the guy's name in fact he ended up removing the video so the original one that had the millions of views and that was a lot of views back in 2009 because youtube was pretty new i mean now there's lots of videos that have all these views but that back then it was actually one of the most viewed youtube videos um but the guy eventually took it down but there are still a few copies of it out there we i made a copy of it and put it up on my youtube channel but yeah that material just doesn't exist anymore because all these networks stopped inviting me on but of course i have been making these forecasts on my own uh for a number of years so there's plenty of plenty of video evidence uh you know of of me making these predictions but you know the the federal reserve that was very dismissive of my warnings and of course i wasn't the only person out there there were other people that were warning about the housing bubble and what was going to happen to the economy to the financial system when that bubble inevitably popped but the federal reserve was telling everybody not to listen to guys like me in particular even janet yellen she gave a speech in which she basically dismissed all the warnings about the potential problems in the housing market and the mortgage market so everybody ben bernanke janet yellen uh was telling everybody don't worry uh and even after this was the the the most ridiculous part even after the subprime market blew up and you had some major bankruptcies and you saw the collapse of those securities even after that happened you had ben bernanke assuring everybody that there was nothing to worry about that what happened in subprime was contained it was isolated to a small part of the mortgage market that it wasn't going to spill over into the overall mortgage market and it certainly wasn't going to hurt the economy nobody had to worry and of course then i was saying look everything i've been worrying about all the warnings in the last few years you can now see that i was right look at what's happening in subprime but even after that happened people still wouldn't admit that what i was saying all those years were right they had to wait for the complete implosion uh you know in the summer of 2008 with the bankruptcy of lehman brothers bear stearns and all these banks imploding and the stock market melting down it actually took the crisis to to vindicate me but the same thing is happening now because the inflation crisis and the dollar crisis that will ensue this is a much bigger economic event that will have a far greater impact on the economy than the 2008 financial crisis i've been warning about the consequences of all this money printing for years and years and years and now finally you're really starting to see that i mean the government has been able to kind of bury uh the amount of inflation they've been creating you know because of the cpi because the cpi doesn't really capture the degree to which prices are going up and so you know it creates a false sense of confidence that we haven't had inflation when we have but now prices are rising so rapidly that even the government's doctored cpi number uh can't hide it and so it's obvious uh what's going on we're getting these huge price increases across the board and what is the federal reserve doing now they're doing exactly what they did in 2000 2007 after subprime blew up they're telling everybody not to worry that what they're seeing is transitory right so these big price increases they're just going to magically go away that somehow they're all related just to the economy getting started and so it's just this good economy that is temporarily pushing our prices but there's nothing to worry about because they're just going to magically come back down and we're still going to be at 2 inflation and so we can keep the printing presses going pedal the metal we're going to have these huge deficits we're going to print all this money and there's nothing to worry about well you better worry because again this crisis is much worse will be much worse than 0-8 and unlike 0-8 nobody's getting a bailout because the reason the federal reserve was able to bail everybody out in 2008-2009 was because they could print the money to fund the bailouts but this next crisis it's the dollar that is going to be in crisis the dollar is going to be crashing and they can't bail anybody out from a dollar crash because all they can do is print more dollars which will just accelerate the collapse of the dollar uh i had uh what's the name larro or gov fed governor brainerd a beautiful woman uh but she was on uh just recently uh saying that uh oh we have the tools in the toolbox and we can guide inflation lower and this is what to your point they're telling us not to worry now can we can the fed guide inflation lower with the tools in their toolbox no you you think if paul volcker had those tools don't you think he would have used them you know paul voger did wasn't able to guide inflation lower interest rates went up to 20 percent that's what brought him places down you know you can't guide it lower they don't have the tools they're they're just bluffing i mean maybe they have the tools but it's impossible for them to use the tools because you know if they wait until inflation really gets out of control before trying to fight it which is what they've stated that the fed is saying we are not going to err on the side of caution which is what you normally do as a central banker because there's an old adage uh never let the inflation genie out of the bottle so if it's there there's a possibility that the genie might get out well you act preemptively but what the fed has said now is we're not going to do that we're not going to do anything about the inflation genie until it's out of the bottle and it's obviously out right and so the problem is you can't just get it back in because let's say they don't do anything about inflation until the cpi is five percent or six percent and it'll probably end up being much higher than that but let's say they wait until five or six percent inflation and now they're like okay we're going to reign it back in again well if interest rates are still at zero how do you stop five percent inflation i mean you got to get interest rates above five percent so you got to go from zero to like six percent you know without passing go you got to go straight there well how are they going to do that i mean i don't even think they can get to one percent without completely imploding the entire economy the problem is we have so much debt because of all the stimulus of the past the fed has loaded the country up with debt that they can't afford to fight inflation without collapsing that entire house of cards they spent the last 20 years erecting so this is all a bluff what see the one thing the fed can't do is fight inflation but the other thing they can't do is admit that they can't fight inflation because that will create the problem even faster so the whole thing is a bluff
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