저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 유동성 공급은 인플레이션과 구조적 부채 위기를 키우고 있으며, 금과 원자재 관련주가 장기적으로 유리하다. 연준·중앙은행 정책: 연준과 각국 중앙은행이 자산을 매입하고 정부부채를 monetize하며 자산가격을 떠받치고 있다. 이는 위기 시점을 미루어 나중에 더 큰 위기를 만든다고 주장. 금리·인플레이션: 중앙은행이 통화 약세를 선호해 금리를 낮게 유지하고 있으나, 소비자물가가 본격 상승하면 금리는 결국 크게 오를 것. 부채가 많은 국가일수록 금리 인상이 어려워 인플레이션에 취약하다. 자본 배분: 유동성이 실물경제보다 주식·채권으로 흘러 월가로 자본이 쏠리고 있으며, 저축을 장려하지 않는 정책이 실질 성장을 해친다고 봄. 주식 시장: 과대평가된 주식은 피해야 하지만 세계 곳곳에 저평가 종목이 있어 배당수익률이 좋은 기업을 고르면 된다는 입장. 광산주는 금 가격 상승 대비 생산원가 격차로 현금흐름이 크게 개선될 것. 금·원자재: 금은 아직 싸다. 통화가 재화폐화(remonetization)되면 금 가격이 현재보다 크게 올라야 한다. 목표치로 1만~2만 달러를 언급했으나 시점에 따라 달라지며 금은 화폐가치 하락을 보여주는 지표일 뿐이라고 설명. 미국 달러 기축통화 지위 약화 흐름도 언급. 호주·중국: 호주는 금 재화폐화와 원자재 수요 증가의 최대 수혜국. 중국 소비가 늘면 원자재 수요가 급증하고, 미·중 교역은 줄고 중국·호주 교역은 늘 것. 리스크: 통화량 확대가 계속되면 금 가격 상승은 불가피하나 재화폐화 시점과 속도에 따라 전망이 크게 달라질 수 있음.
다듬은 글
the fed has been pumping liquidity in like you wouldn't believe there's any tomorrow right and they've been doing it for a long long time this isn't just uh the virus related is it there's a there's a structural question as to whether the fed is actually just blowing the bubble higher yeah well creating uh providing liquidity is a nice way of saying it what they're doing is they're creating inflation they're just inflating they're monetizing government debt and they're buying assets with the money that they create out of thin air and the goal is to is to prop up those asset prices but also to enable massive us government spending in fact the u.s government is spending more money that the fed prints than it collects in taxes and so we're trying to keep this whole pyramid from collapsing uh but eventually uh you know it's it's gonna happen and the fact that they delay the day of reckoning with this policy just means that when that day arrives we have a lot more to reckon with and so it's a much bigger crisis than would have been the case you know had we faced the music years ago and of course it's not just the fed but central banks around the world are following here in our here in australia the rba took their rates to 0.1 uh last week and announced a quantitative easing program we've got the same going on of course in japan and in the eurozone and in the uk so everybody's just going down the same path right but i think they're following the fed's lead because everybody is afraid of having normal interest rates because nobody wants their currency to appreciate which you know seems counterintuitive because a strong currency is a good thing it means that your wages have more value your savings have more value you can buy more stuff for less money you have a rising standard of living but you know modern-day central bankers for some reason have no common sense and they think that weakness is strength uh but eventually when consumer prices really start to rise uh the public around the world is going to be you know protesting the the rise in the cost of living and so interest rates are going to eventually rise and they're probably going to rise much higher than they ever would have gone had the central banks not gotten so far behind the curve but the countries that have the most amount of debts are going to be the ones that are least likely or able to raise rates and so inflation is going to just ravage those economies and if i think about uh that uh liquidity that's been created a lot of it's slowed back in to the stock markets and into bond purchases and those sorts of things so it's not necessarily hitting the real economy directly well it's not only not hitting the economy it's draining the economy of capital the reason we don't have real economic growth is because capital is being diverted from main street to wall street so if we want real economic growth we need more savings so that we can have more legitimate capital investment but we're not going to get more savings until we have higher interest rates but the federal reserve is actually discouraging people from saving as our central banks around the world and they're encouraging reckless debt which just fuels acid bubbles and consumption all of which undermines real economic growth and uh interestingly here the uh reserve bank governor several times said people have to move into the market take market risk if they want any sort of returns i know and but but first of all you're distorting the markets by causing all this money uh to artificially bid up prices but in the end the losses are going to be horrific to say that well people have no choice but to take risk i think they do have a choice i i don't think they have to buy overpriced stocks now fortunately if you look around the world there are stocks that are not overpriced i mean i find that there is still a lot of value in the markets if you spend the time to look for it so you can buy companies at reasonable or actually cheap prices now and get good dividend yields uh but also you know i think gold and silver are still very cheap relative to the amount of fiat currency that's been created and i think there's a lot of opportunities in the mining sector i think a lot of these stocks are going to be raising dividends significantly over the years i think their cash flows are going to improve dramatically as the price of gold rises much faster than the cost of producing it and you know australia will be a main beneficiary of the remonetization of gold because there's a lot of gold in the ground to be mined and other resources i think you're going to see a boom in natural resources all sorts of minerals that australia has in abundance are going to be in demand and so the economy is going to pick up but i particularly think that the chinese are going to be even better customers in the future than they were in the past i mean once they stop wasting their money on u.s treasuries and u.s mortgages and the chinese consumers actually start to spend more of what they produce as opposed to loaning it to americans you're going to see major demand for raw materials in china and i think trade is going to increase dramatically between australia and china you know as trade is diminished with the united states so i think both australia and china will trade less with the united states but they'll end up trading more with each other let me just come back to gold for a second because obviously a number of central banks around the world have been acquiring gold and in fact you know many other people even in some asian countries particularly um what do you think is is there a sort of a drift away from the us dollar well absolutely i mean right now it's a drift but it's going to gather momentum i mean that smart central banks are buying but what i think we are headed for is a remonetization of gold uh you know the us took the world off the gold standard with bretton woods but then we broke our commitment to the world in 1971 by defaulting on gold backing the u.s dollar never would have been accepted as the world reserve currency but for its convertibility into gold that's what made the dollar as good as gold so i think the next step now that we have so massively abused the privilege that the world has given us i think the next step is for the world to go off the dollar standard and back to the gold standard which is the standard it was on prior to brent woods because currencies need to be backed by something so when currencies were backed by gold they were backed by something real when currencies that were backed by the dollar that was backed by gold they were still backed by something real through the dollar the world was still on the gold standard but now you have currencies backed by dollars that are backed by nothing so if you back your currency with something that's backed by nothing then you've got no backing to your currency and this is the problem with the modern monetary system is there's no real anchor there's no real value to the money and so it can just be created at will and you have the potential for a loss of confidence which is where we're headed so i think the world remonetizes gold and in order to do that the price of gold is going to have to rise substantially from its current levels otherwise the only way it's possible is if the price of everything else collapses and i think that's less likely than the price of gold rising to where it would need to be given the current level of of prices for other other assets and consumer goods right and you i think have expressed the view that it could be five thousand dollars well no i think it'd be a lot higher than that it more like ten to 20 000 and and of course it's a moving target because it depends on when the remonetization occurs because between now and then a lot more fiat currency can be created and so really what gold is doing it gold's not going up it's just letting you know how much value all these fiat currencies are losing and so the more they print right the more unit of each currency would then be required to buy an ounce of gold because the global supply of gold doesn't really change very much i mean it grows slightly on a year-over-year basis but you know money supply can just grow exponentially so if they just keep printing more money well that doesn't mean there's any more gold so now all that gold just has to you know go to more and more money and so the price of gold just has to go up for the market to clear thank you
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