저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 비트코인은 인플레이션 헤지가 아니며 투기 광풍이 꺼지면 붕괴할 수 있고, 중국 디지털 위안은 비트코인보다 안정적인 대안이 될 수 있다는 주장. [비트코인 - 인플레이션 헤지 부정] 달러 인플레이션은 확실하지만 비트코인은 실물 연계성이 없어 헤지가 아니라고 주장. 금은 실물 상품으로 물가 상승과 함께 가격이 오르는 반면, 비트코인은 투기 수요에만 의존. [비트코인 - 홍보 구조와 투기성] 마이클 세일러(마이크로스트래티지)와 일론 머스크 등 소수 인사만 매수하며 계속 홍보해야 매도자가 나갈 수 있다고 봄. 실사용처나 가격 기준(금·주택·원유 대비 적정 비트코인 수량)이 없다고 비판. [비트코인 - 붕괴 가능성] 10년 역사 동안 70~90% 이상 폭락을 십여 차례 겪었다고 언급. 과거에는 회복했지만 어느 시점엔 마지막 폭락이 될 수 있고, 회복을 믿고 물타기하는 투자자는 전액 손실 위험. [디지털 위안] 중국 디지털 위안은 1:1 대체 구조로 통화량이 늘지 않아 안정적이며, 고인플레이션 국가 주민의 대안이 될 수 있다고 봄. 미국이 디지털 달러가 없으면 달러 기축 지위를 약화시킬 위협이 될 수 있음. 감시·통제 도구로서 우려도 표명. [자산별 방향 예측 요약] 비트코인: 장기적으로 붕괴 가능성 강조, 1~3개월 명시적 방향 예측은 없음. 달러 인플레이션: 확실하다고 언급(환율 직접 예측은 없음).
다듬은 글
so you you know i know that you keep up on this stuff but we've watched musk and michael saylor and everybody's saying that bitcoin is going to continue to go up as the dollar inflates now this is really your strike zone you know the obviously you know they're kind of using this again like the dollar for sure is going to inflate i think we all agree on that at least you and i do um now you know why are some of these big names jumping in now you know we're seeing obviously michael strategy michael saylor we see uh musk with tesla and you know yeah remember there's that's hardly anybody yeah there's michael saylor yeah there's elon musk but what percent of you know the s p 500 you know ceos are into bitcoin i mean maybe it's just those two guys i mean you have a little bit uh um with square and twitter jack dorsey's controlling both companies so i can throw him in there but you know square is utilizing bitcoin to some extent so i mean there's a reason that they might be talking about it but you're talking about a very small but highly vocal minority so when you say everybody's talking about it they're not i mean a lot of people are talking about it but they're not buying it the only ones that are buying it are you know the elon musks and the michael sailors but of course once these guys buy it they can't stop talking about it because they have to keep talking about it because they got to talk it up they've got to get more people to buy because there there is no actual use case for bitcoin there's no real market for it like there is for gold the only market is people who think the price is going to go up and the only way the price will go up is if more people buy and the only way that people who already own it can get out of it is if they have new buyers to sell it to so that's why michael saylor has to constantly pound the table he does any interview i mean no matter who requests him he will do any podcast no matter how small he is 24 7 uh bitcoin promoter i mean who the hell is running micro strategy i mean maybe he's doing this whole thing as a distraction because maybe his software company is failing and so he turned it into a bitcoin etf and all he does is tout bitcoin that's his basic job now is to try to pump this thing up but once you get beyond these big pumpers you know it's just a distraction for most companies i mean they look at it but they've got nothing to do with it and to answer your question about uh will it be an inflation hedge no i don't think it's an inflation edge at all i mean i think people are marketing it as a hedge against inflation but the reason gold is a hedge against inflation or anything like real estate or something like that is that those are real things and so when when you print more paper right now the price of all the things that you buy with paper goes up right and and commodities are usually some of the most you know the first reactors you know you print more money and now food gets more expensive or energy gets more expensive but when you have gold you're owning one of those commodities that is going to go up in price with inflation you know as you print more money you need more money to buy gold you need more money to buy a house need more money to buy oil or wheat or copper or anything so gold is an inflation hedge because it gets you out of paper into something real that has some kind of relationship to all the other commodities or other assets uh but bitcoin isn't real it has no relationship to anything there is no historic you know uh metric that says how many bitcoins should it take to buy a house how many bitcoins should it take uh you know to buy an ounce of gold or a barrel of oil i mean there's no relationship but you could go back over history and say hey how much should the average house cost in terms of gold how many ounces of gold should it take to buy a house you know how much gold do you need to buy oil or buy wheat or to buy copper i mean you can go back for hundreds of years or more and you can kind of look at this and say okay well if paper is going to collapse and i got to get out of paper and i want to store my purchasing power to buy the things that i need in the future well i'll buy gold because gold will hold on to its purchasing power and then i can use my gold to buy a house or to buy the things that i need because if i'm just holding on to dollars paper i may not be able to buy anything because the paper can lose so much value but i think people who think bitcoin is going to behave like gold are wrong i mean first of all it's not behaving anything like gold now it just goes straight up gold doesn't do that accidentally bitcoin is just you know marches to its own drum it's a pure speculative media and we could have a huge outbreak of inflation where gold goes to five or ten thousand and in that environment bitcoin could go to approach zero i mean it's got no relationship to anything other than its own speculative mania and as soon as the buying dries up this whole thing is going to collapse regardless of what's happening to inflation the dollar gold or anything else so peter so uh we just got done hammering bitcoin and uh clearly uh i'm very clear on how you feel about it so uh let's talk about a potential crash because a lot of people are saying the crash is impossible and you know i know you study this yeah i mean i i really love your videos and and obviously you're an economist so you look at things very differently what do you say to those people well first of all clearly a bitcoin crash is not only impossible or not impossible it's highly probable because bitcoin has already crashed many many times in its 10-year existence i mean you look at how many times the price of bitcoin has collapsed by 70 80 90 or more i mean it's probably at least a dozen maybe more i'm not really sure so it has a history of crashing so i don't know why anybody in bitcoin would say it can't crash it's just that up until now every time it's crashed it's come back right so a lot of people are very complacent they recognize that bitcoin can crash at any moment because obviously it's done it so many times in the past but what they also expect to happen is that after it crashes it comes back and makes a new high because that's what it's done every time but just because it's done that in the past there is no guarantee that it's going to do that in the future one of these days bitcoin is going to crash and it ain't going to come back except you don't know which crash is the last and which crash is just another one in the cycle and nobody will know for sure until probably many years into the future looking back at the whole thing and that is the big problem for these bitcoin huddlers right the guys that are holding on and never sell because they're so confident that every crash will recover what happens when you have the last crash and it never recovers they just hold and hope indefinitely and then at some point they keep throwing more good money after bad expecting bitcoin to recover and it just keeps making new lows until they've lost all of their money so i think a lot of people are going to be completely wiped out with bitcoin because they're just going to make the false assumption that just because bitcoin has recovered from prior crashes it's going to recover from every crash because at some point it's going to crash for the last time and it's just going to keep on falling right so let's talk a little bit about you know the governments right because they've been kind of sitting back and watching this and i know i i think you probably saw that china created its own digital currency and just came out this week and you know that they now have a cyber is it yuan is that how they say it yuan i believe yeah the yuan yeah so they now have a cyber yuan and and uh you know and the fed is all over this issue um what do you see coming down the road you know as some of these governments try to you know get back some of this control yeah well certainly a fiat a digital sovereign fiat currency is much different much different than bitcoin right so the digital yuan will basically be one for one at all times with the paper you want and in fact the chinese government has said that they're not going to just simply issue uh the digital lawn in addition to the paper wand they're going to destroy a paper yuan every time they issue one in digital form so it's not a net increase in inflation right the money supply is not going to expand as they create digital yuan they're simply going to replace some of the paper money supply with the digital money supply and so basically the chinese consumers will have a choice they can carry around paper in their wallet or they can carry the digital yuan in in their smartphones right so one or the other now i have a feeling that eventually over time they will phase out completely the paper because if the chinese government wants to have complete control over the population and know everything that they do what better way to force all your transactions online where the chinese government knows everything you buy right that way if you buy something that they don't like you know they can arrest you right so uh it's it's it's a very oppressive tool and i i i don't like this at all and i don't like the us government having this either and so but i think we're going to move in that direction uh but i do think that a digital yuan will be very attractive for people around the world to own because it'll be much easier like if you wanted to buy paper you want right now what are you gonna do go to a bank i mean how many u.s banks can you go into and buy you on i mean probably none right but if you could just go online and buy yourself some digital one at the prevailing exchange rate i think that could be a real alternative much better than bitcoin because the digital yuan would be very stable the water is a very stable currency if you look at it you know it's pretty you know it doesn't vary very much day to day it's a lot of stability there i think long term it's a much better store value than the dollar but i think it can really elevate the yuan to be a more international currency to the extent that people anywhere in the world can decide they want to save chinese yuan instead of their local currency i mean i think it's a much better alternative for people in high inflation countries uh that want to get out of their own fiat currency right now maybe they would go to bitcoin which is extremely volatile and extremely expensive the yuan would be far more stable and much cheaper to transact it so i think it could ultimately be a big threat not only to bitcoin but also to the us dollar to the extent that we don't have a digital dollar and they've got a digital yuan and more and more people want to own that instead of the dollar then again it helps diminish the dollar's roll you
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