저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
제임스 로저스는 현재 시장이 거품 말기에 가깝고 곧 큰 조정과 경제 위기가 올 수 있다고 본다. 금과 은은 여전히 보유·추가 매수 대상이지만 지금은 조정을 기다리는 중이며, 은이 최고가 대비 약 45% 하락한 상태라 저가에 사고 싶다고 말한다. 원자재(특히 농산물)가 현재 가장 싼 자산군이라고 보고 농산물 매수를 이어가고 있다. 채권은 거품 상태이고, 여러 도시의 부동산도 거품이며, 주식은 다수 국가에서 사상 최고치 근처라고 평가한다. 다만 미국 외 일부 국가 주식은 매수 중이라고 밝힌다. 전기차 확산으로 구리 수요가 늘고, 태양광 등에 은이 많이 쓰여 원자재에 낙관적이라는 입장이다. 비트코인에 대해서는 직접 사고판 적이 없으며, 많은 코인이 사라진 것을 지적하며 회의적이다. 성공한 코인 투자자를 알고 있으나 본인은 해당하지 않는다고 말한다. 비트코인이 실제 화폐로 성공하면 정부가 통제권을 잃지 않으려고 금지할 것이고, 결국 디지털 화폐는 정부 통제 아래 놓일 것이라고 본다. 게임스톱식 숏스퀴즈는 조작 성격이 강하고 해당 기업 가치는 낮으며, 과열된 개인 투자자 유입은 거품의 전형적인 신호라고 평가한다. 결국 거품이 꺼지며 많은 사람이 큰 손실을 본다는 것이 결론이다.
다듬은 글
it's been around for hundreds of years it's a highly respected and necessary part of the financial markets to have liquidity and to have credibility so you know the people you know as well as i do everybody needs to sell newspapers everybody needs to get eyeballs and so they they write good stories uh i'm not sure it was it was a mob more than uh the little man uh taking down some some evil plutocrat it was a mob that got together and the the hedge funds i'm still surprised that they sold so much sure i mean i've seen short squeezes all my life and everybody always the first thing i look at is how many shorts are there because then i'd if i they're too many shorts i'm not going to sell something short because i know i'm liable to a squeeze and i i'm still you know i i don't know them so i don't know i don't know how they made such a i got into such a position but then smart guys said let's do a short squeeze they've been short squeezes for hundreds of years and they did it and they were successful for a while now the government is looking at the government doesn't have to get in it's self-regulating enough people have lost money by now that you don't have to worry about new controls new regulations it'll take care of itself silver's better silver's still cheaper i mean i own both i've i've i owned both and i will be buying more of both but not now i'm waiting for the correction if there's a correction but i will buy silver and i'll buy more silver it was still silver's down 45 from its all-time high gold is near its all-time high stocks in many countries are near their all-time high you know that the world is moving more and more towards electric cars whether we like it or not and electric cars use for instance five times as much copper as they use in a regular car so they're going to be more demand and silver of course you is used a lot in many of the new applications solar energy uses silver so i'm optimistic about many commodities going forward i'm still buying agriculture i i see the cheapest area of the cheapest asset class in the world i mean bonds are in a bubble property in many cities is in a bubble stocks are near all-time highs so i commodities are still the cheapest asset class i know so i certainly would like to buy silver under 10 but i don't think that's going to happen in my lifetime again no i i don't have a price for gold or silver right now i let the market usually tell me what to do when i like despair when i see despair of people giving up on something that i will probably buy more silver more gold but there's certainly not despair in either of those markets right now i have never bought or sold any crypto i wish i'd bought the right one the right ones you know i mean many of them have disappeared and gone to zero we all read about the success stories we don't read about the hundreds or probably thousands by now that have disappeared and gone to zero and yeah i know people who are doing extremely well and making a lot of money and having a lot of fun i'm not one of them i will see how it ends the more people who join in the bigger the price is going to be the higher the price is going to be it's a very simple equation uh how it's all going to end i have a different view but in the meantime i'm not going to rain on their parade i'm not even at the parade so more power to them as long as they get out in time i'm not sure that that bitcoin has understood the test of time with a step test of hard times we we will see my view as as i think you remember is that if bitcoin becomes successful as money which the advocates say then the government's going to outlaw because they don't want to lose the monopoly they don't want the competition they don't they want the control money is going to be on the computer it already is in china you can't take a taxi in china with money with renminbi with any you can't buy try to buy an ice cream with chinese money so it's already happening in many countries that china is certainly ahead of the us but every the us is studying figuring out what to do with compute how to do computer money and all money is going to be on the computer but i would suspect it's going to be government money they don't want to lose control they love it first of all they don't have to print it because money costs a lot of money you have to transport it print it guard it uh account for it if it's all on the computer it's very very simple and they control they know it they know everything you do and they love that i mean i hate it of course but they call you up and say we've been feeding your babies too much milk this month calm down you know they'll know everything we all do which they love wait selling short is manipulation since when the manipulators were the mob the mom said let's sweet let's have a short squeeze that's manipulation it's pretty clear and simple it's legal they didn't do anything that i know of they didn't do anything illegal uh but to put the manipulation where the guys having the short squeeze all getting on the internet and saying buy and buy and buy i mean the hedge fund guys are clearly smart except for the fact that they over extended themselves i mean this company from what i can see was a dead company i mean the fact that the stock went to three hundred dollars for a company which is basically out of business because some people got together and manipulated the stock and squeezed it why is that why does that make the hedge funds evil the hedge fund guys were smart and did their homework and knew what they were doing except they got overextended of course the mob i mean the mob is going to lose a lot of money in this that company's not worth fifty dollars much less three hundred dollars it was it was eight dollars before it's gonna go back and probably lower i'm still buying shares in some country not in the us that you can see the bubble forming i've been to this movie before this is not my first rodeo i know how it's where you see new players come in the whole thing with bitcoin is another sign of that i hold the short squeeze we just had massive numbers of new people coming into markets it's all happened before it all plays out more or less the same way in the end and in the end of course it pops and a lot of people lose a lot of money
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