저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 주식시장과 경제 전반이 거품 상태이며 이번 하락은 조정이 아니라 약세장(베어마켓)의 시작이고 곧 더 큰 경기침체가 온다고 주장한다. 쉬프 주장: 2008년보다 큰 거품이며, 연준이 제로금리를 장기간 유지한 것과 이제 금리를 올리는 것 모두 잘못이다. 금리 인상 시 막대한 부채(개인·기업·정부)를 감당할 수 없게 되어 붕괴가 온다. 경기 전망: 경기침체는 2008년보다 더 고통스럽고 깊을 것이며, 실업 증가와 물가 상승이 동시에 나타나는 스태그플레이션 형태가 될 것이라고 봤다. 자동차·주택건설 업종이 이미 침체 신호를 보내고 있다고 언급했다. 달러·관세: 달러 하락 시 생활비가 오르고, 관세가 이미 존재하는 인플레이션 압력을 더 키운다고 주장했다. 트럼프 비판: 트럼프가 연준을 비난하는 것은 부적절하며, 재정적자를 키우는 감세·지출 확대가 금리 상승기에 최악의 선택이라고 비판했다. 앤디 브레너(Andy Brenner, 나트 얼라이언스 고정수익 담당)와의 대립: 브레너는 베어마켓에는 반대하지만 10~15% 조정은 올 것으로 봤고, 중간선거가 이를 완화할 수 있다고 보았다. 경기침체는 임박하지 않았다고 했으며, 해외 신흥국·유럽·중국 증시 하락은 우려했다. 쉬프는 해외 시장은 연준 정책 기대 때문에 하락한 것이므로 연준이 방향을 바꾸면 매수 기회라고 보았다. 미국 주식 전망: 쉬프는 주식 시장 하락이 계속될 것으로 보았으나 구체적 목표가나 종목 언급은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Dow Jones Industrials down about 299 points right now okay you've heard of girls gone wild how about fed gone crazy President Trump said it he's taking aim at the Federal Reserve putting the blame for the markets plunge that we saw yesterday of 831 points on the Dow squarely at the feet of the central bank all right a live check of the December Fed Funds futures which indicate the odds of a rate hike this is for December so they're not far at all from where they've been the past month right now they're at 71 and a half percent chance of a rate hike past couple of weeks they've been around 80 79 now if that fourth hike of the year comes to pass our stockholders doomed or is it too late to save investors either way joining me now Andy Brenner ahead of fixed income at gnat Alliance who says the Fed is doing what it thinks is necessary to keep our economy afloat and Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff who says the bear market has already begun Peter President Trump called it a correction blamed the Fed is it a correction or a bear market and should he be blaming the Fed well all bear markets start off as Corrections I think this one is probably a bear market it's long overdue but you know Donald Trump said that the Fed has gone crazy he's wrong they didn't just go crazy they've been crazy for a long time it was crazy to lower interest rates down to zero it was even crazier to leave them there for as long as they did the only same thing they've done is to raise them back up but what is crazy is for the Fed to believe that they could raise interest rates without pricking their own bubble which is exactly what they've done this is a bigger bubble than the one that blew up in 2008 and the crisis that is going to ensue is going to be far larger you know you mentioned earlier in the show that hey in the past people were able to pay higher interest rates that was true because we didn't have all this debt thanks to the Fed and cheap money we have more debt than ever before individuals corporations the government is loaded up with debt and as interest rates go up that debt is unserviceable Andy Brenner let's specifically tackle what the president said he said the Fed is Loco in fact he said the Fed is too stringent he now suddenly doesn't want the Fed to tighten rates although in 2016 during his campaign he said this is all political Janet Yellen who was the Fed chair she's keeping rates super low to make President Obama look good and make the stock market look good total reversal here feds going crazy and then even said I'm not gonna fire chair Powell I'm just disappointed well I mean the fact that even said that that that really kind of people looked a scant slightly but you tell me specifically on this issue of the president blaming the Fed for yesterday's correction where do you stand first of all the president can't fire Paul he's probably one of the few people in his administration that he can't I thought he could I thought federal reserve access that the president can remove governors for cause well then that's new to me because as far as I know his term I think what it does okay okay go ahead Andy all right as far as as far as rates you know Peter somewhat right in that the feds been raising rates and you know as far as as far as other things I think the the Fed has never seen a balance sheet unwind and raising the rates together and I think that's causing the risk premia in the in the markets to rise and I think that's hurting equities I disagree with Peter on on a bear market but I do think a correction 10 to 12 to 15 percent it's coming it is in the cards I think the the midterms will will kind of reduce that and I think as we get towards your end but the president is clearly trying to get a scapegoat here and the scapegoats the Fed you know the president knew that that equity markets are high he's a markets guy himself he's been trading markets back and forth over his over his 40-year career so I think I think he's he's right in some respects and wrong in others and criticizing the Fed Peter of the president also I believe brought this up he said it's hurting me personally I owe 300 million to deutsche bank of debt with interest rate that's hooked to the Fed policy I'm paying a high interest rate so he was complaining almost you know making it like he's feeling to quote another president I feel your pain but tell me where this all goes and you really believe that this is a longer-term issue and the start of a bear market after what has been the second longest expansion in history yeah well more important that a bear mark it's a recession I mean this is a bubble not just in the stock market but the entire economy so the Fed has distorted more than just markets and the problem is this recession is going to be far more painful and far deeper than the one that we had a know a two no.9 because it's also going to be accompanied by rising consumer prices I think as Americans lose their jobs they're gonna see the cost of living going up rather dramatically and so this is going to make it particularly a painful but you know one of the things I thought was funny that Trump said is that he was criticizing the Fed for raising rates too quickly because he said that he would rather have time to pay off debt first and he was not referring to his own debt but to the national debt but the problem is Trump is exploding the national debt knowing that the Federal Reserve was gonna raise interest rates he signed on to tax cuts and spending increases that is the worst thing to do when interest rates are going up you don't want to go deeper into debt I really want to try to pay down debt but the only way to pay down the theater is to run a surplus you voted for President Trump not that I need to remind you because we talk all the time but we alternative go ahead any one thing I don't see a recession on the horizon I mean with GDP growth 4% and unemployment low I'm willing to give you a correction but that's as far as I'm willing to give you interest rates still are historically low and yeah there's a lot of leverage in the system and I can see a lot of bad things happening and I'm more concerned about what's happening overseas emerging markets are down 25% European markets are down 15% Chinese markets are down 27% I mean there are a lot of bad things happening I think we're there like the the least dirty shirt around and I think that's yeah I think we're gonna be okay but yeah I'll give you I'll give you a correction at that part I'm going to give you those yeah those markets are only down because everybody thinks the Fed is going to keep hiking rates and shrinking its balance sheet you should be buying those markets the Fed is eventually gonna do it about-face but if you don't think a recession is coming look at the auto sector look at the homebuilders I mean they're already flashing recession look at the financials this is one of the longest economic expansions ever it is required the greatest amount of money stimulus to produce it and it's such a gigantic bubble if this whole thing is built on a mountain of debt right as interest rates go up the thing collapses and as the dollar goes down the cost of living is going to go up way do you see how expensive things are gonna get in the United States especially with these tariffs okay they're just gonna add to the inflationary pressures it already exists sorry to try and think that we're gonna avoid a recession I'm looking now we're going back down we're down now three hundred and twenty-one points so let's see if we can make a run for the Green Line at least a little bit closer I want to thank both of you Andy Brenner Peter Schiff
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