저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 미국 펀더멘털은 견고하므로 시장 변동성은 크지만 과도한 비관보다 장기적으로 미국 자산 비중 축소는 시기상조라는 입장. 시장 상황: 전날 다우 800포인트 급락, 미국 GDP 4.2%·내구재 주문 증가 등 펀더멘털은 양호. 아시아 증시(닛케이 -4%, 선전 -6%, 상하이 -5%, 코스피 7년래 저점권) 급락. 시장 전환 논리: 과거 중앙은행 유동성 주입에 의존하던 장세에서 펀더멘털 중심 장세로 엔진이 바뀌는 과도기라 단기 변동성이 커진다는 진단. 올해 첫 9개월간 미국은 신흥국 지수를 20%p 이상 상회했고, 하락장에서도 기술적 지표가 강해 낙폭이 상대적으로 작다고 설명. 무역전쟁: 미중 정상회담(G20, 아르헨티나) 개최 가능성 언급. 무역전쟁 가능성은 약 25%로 보며, 발생 시 경제와 기업 실적에 악재. 가장 유력한 시나리오는 중국이 한국·멕시코·캐나다처럼 양보하며 긴장을 완화하는 것. 중국의 합작법인 요건·지식재산권 관련 검증 가능한 양보를 기대. 투자 조언: 고객에게는 변동성 감내 수준을 먼저 점검하라고 권고. 가장 큰 실수는 바닥에서 매도하는 것. 미국 자산을 빼서 신흥국으로 재배분하라는 주장은 시기상조이므로 따르지 말 것. 출연자 전망: 미국 펀더멘털 우위 지속, 단기 변동성은 불가피하나 장기적으로 긍정적 전환 기대.
다듬은 글
on the left of your screen this is yesterday the market plunging 800 points most of the action came during this hour and it got uglier and uglier but on the right hand side of the screen what do you see gross domestic product for the most recent quarter me recent print 4.2 percent it's not a bad number the labor market is near full employment look at durable goods these are big-ticket items that last longer than three to five years the orders for these are up is it doom or is it boom if you don't know what to believe we do not blame you but for clarity let's bring in Wall Street's most closely followed economist Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed el-erian Mohammed the markets look like they are decoupling from a solid economy why actually their weak coupling and let me explain Liz for a long time the markets were dependent on artificial injections of liquidity by central banks around the world we are now transitioning regime that's good in the long term but is turbulent in the short term we are going towards a fundamentally driven economy and as you pointed out the u.s.
fundamentals are fine why is it so bumpy first it's never easy to switch engines and we are switching engines and secondly we are doing this in the midst of concerns about the rest of the world they're not doing as well as we are and about trade policies so it's not a surprise to me that this is so volatile but ultimately its fundamentals that matter and our fundamentals are solid ok but do you foresee more volatility and more herky-jerky movement like the likes of what we've seen and on our screen right now Asia looked really ugly the Asia took its cue from what happened yesterday in the markets the Nikkei lost about 4% you had the Shenzhen in China down 6% the Shanghai down 5% the Cosby in South Korea was also looking very bad I think that was a seven-year low that the Cosby endured so tell me at what point do we see this plateau so first it's interesting because we outperform the rest of the world on the way up for the first nine months we were up more than 20 percentage points than the emerging market index and guess what on the way down we're not doing as badly as they are that makes sense because our technicals are much stronger looking forward yes unfortunately it will be volatile the image I use liz is you're on a plane that's changing switching engines from an artificial engine to a genuine engine is that a good thing yes over the long term but in but in the short term you better have your seatbelt on because that is a fundamental change in drivers and it's going to be very volatile I don't want to be on any plane that has an artificial engine oh hey honey okay Mohammed the trade war there is word that the president is considering meeting with Xi Jingping at the g20 in Argentina it hasn't been solidified but we are in the midst of a trade war with China there is concern that this will hike prices because we're slapping tariffs on things and there is a tit-for-tat war how do you see that working in to both equities and actual goods that people buy let's not forget earnings I'm sorry yeah I think there's a 25% probability in my mind of a trade war that would be bad for the economy bad for earnings the more likely outcome is that China will understand what Korea Mexico Canada have understood what Europe is in the process of understanding which is in a trade war with the US the best outcome for you is make concessions defuse tensions and the hope is that this meeting takes place next month between the two presidents of China in the u.s.
at the g20 and the hope is that the Chinese come with verifiable concessions on - in two areas one to join venture requirements and to intellectual property rights yeah yeah you can't force you can't force American companies to have a partner who then burrows or steals that intellectual property Mohammad let's just say the head of Allianz our couple he calls up and says Monsieur el-erian I've got very wealthy clients who are on the phone with me asking where should they put their money what are you saying the first thing I say is they have to have clear understanding of the appetite for volatility because we've entered a higher volatility regime which another way of saying they should know what mistake that kind of thought to make because the worse investing mistake is when you sell at the bottom look at the range today imagine that you had sold when we went down almost 700 points I mean you know you don't want to be forced into selling the second thing I would say don't listen to those who tell you fade the US you know there's a view out there that this is the time to reallocate from the US to the rest of the world know that time may come but it's not now don't listen to those who say fade the US okay I'm taking that to the bank we'll see Muhammad great to see you thank you good luck with your New York Jets on Sunday and with your thank you go ahead with my whoo your brows yeah thank you can never you're amazing Browns I should say that's right that's right my winning Browns will have it good to see you thank you so much
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