저자: 미상 · 외국인
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ROCE(자본사용이익률)와 ROIC의 차이 및 활용법을 설명하는 교육 영상 Terry Smith의 사례: ROCE 20% 기업을 4배 PBR에 매수하고 2배에 매도하면 연 18% 주가수익률, ROCE 10% 기업을 2배 PBR에 매수하고 4배에 매도하면 연 12% 수익률. 장기 투자에서는 기업의 자본수익률이 주가 수익률을 좌우한다는 결론. Charlie Munger 인용: 장기적으로 주가 수익률은 기업의 사업 수익률을 넘기 어렵고, 높은 ROCE 기업은 다소 비싸도 좋은 결과를 낸다. ROCE는 EBIT ÷ (총자산-유동부채), ROIC는 세후영업이익 ÷ 투하자본으로 계산. ROCE는 세전·단기부채 차감, ROIC는 세후·부채와 자본 합산 기준이라는 차이가 있다. 두 지표 모두 동일 업종 내에서 비교해야 한다(은행 6% vs 마이크로소프트 32% 비교는 부적절). 경기순환 영향: 마이크론의 ROCE는 2018년 44%에서 2020년 6.8%로 급락. 구글은 2020년 ROCE 16.7%에서 2021년 28.2%로 상승(순이익 400억→760억 달러). 향후 전망: 메타의 메타버스 대규모 투자가 향후 ROCE·ROIC를 낮출 것으로 언급. 알리바바의 ROCE는 2014년 40% 이상에서 10% 미만으로 하락했으며, 경쟁 심화(JD, 핀둬둬, 텐센트)와 중국 정부의 공동부유 기금 출연이 원인으로 제시됨. 결론: ROCE 등 지표는 과거 성과를 보여주므로 기업의 상황을 함께 분석해야 한다. 본 영상에서 특정 종목에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
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Hello everyone welcome to Lunch Investing, today I wanna talk about Return On Capital Employed and let's start by watching this video from Terry Smith where he explains Return on Capital Employed, "you're going to have to make a decision between investing in just one of two companies for your investment career pretty simple investment career it's going to be 40 years long you can either buy company A or Company B company A makes a 20% return on Capital, Company B makes a 10 return on Capital just to save us a a lot of sort of strenuous arithmetic neither of them pays a dividend they both invest all of their profits back into the business at the same rate of return.
Okay who wants to own A this is show hands, B anybody anyone want B no good you've been listening oh there's a man would be over there we've got a man would be well done sir yeah not even my regular straight man good now I haven't I of course as ever with any question I ever pose it's always completely unfair because I'm not giving you enough information to answer the question you need to know what value you buy and sell it don't you, so here's what happens with these two shares not unreasonably a the 20% returner uh is price the shares are priced at four times its Book value whereas B the 10% returner is only trading at two times Book value when you buy them okay who wants A anyone want to join this gentleman on B?
I can't see any oh a couple of B's over there well done well done no good okay still I've got enough information how about when you come to sell them okay when you come to sell them it's all gone horribly wrong if you bought A on four times book the ratings halved to two times book and that's a bit of bad luck isn't it really it happens I suppose B you've done very well it's gone from two times book to four times book the rating is doubled in the time that you sell it Okay who wants A now?
who wants B now? there's your answer if that was the the portfolio the choice facing you a with A 20% return on Capital bought on four times book was sold on two times book would give you a share price return of 18% per annum and compound annual growth B with a 10 return even though you doubled the rating on which you uh on which you bought it when you sold it would only get to a 12 %annual return in terms of share price.
if you are going to be a long-term investor and I hope you'll realize by now we are on your behalf whether or not you are investing in a good company that makes high returns and can reinvest in its business at something like those High returns is the single biggest determinant of the outcome. and Charlie Munger talks about Returns on Capital as well, he says quote "over the long term it is hard for a stock to earn much better return than the business which underlies it earns.
If a business earns 6% on Capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years you're not going to make much difference than a 6% return even if you originally buy it at a huge discount conversely if a business owns 18 on Capital over 20 or 30 years even if we pay an expensive looking price you will end up with a fine result." now that quote explains why I have a position in Microsoft at a higher valuation and why I don't have a position in at&t despite it looking so cheap but what is return on Capital employed and how is it different from return on invested capital, to find out let's dive in.
Return On Capital Employed is earnings before interest and taxes divided by Capital employed which is total assets minus current liabilities which is the debt the company needs to pay within the next 12 months whereas return on invested capital is net operating profit after tax divided by total invested capital and the invested Capital refers to the combined value of equity and debt Capital raised by a firm inclusive of capital leases.
Now both of these ratios are used to determine how effective the company is at using their capital, higher the return, the better. The main differences are Return On Capital Employed uses earnings before interest and tax whereas return invested Capital uses earnings after tax and return on Capital employed disregards the capital that needs to be paid back within the next 12 months whereas return on Invested Capital doesn't.
But in both cases it is important to compare the numbers within sectors. Comparing Bank of America's six percent return on Capital employed to Microsoft's 32 percent wouldn't be fair to Bank of America another important thing to remember is that the return on Capital employed can be affected by cyclicality as you can see here in 2018 where the chip sector was booming micron's return on Capital employed was at 44 percent and two years later in 2020 it was 6.8 percent and here we have the return and invested capital and return on Capital employed of Google.
Now the graphs might be distracting because one is starting from zero and the other is not but the results are pretty similar throughout the years in 2021 Google's return on Capital employed was 28.2 percent and return invested Capital was 25.5 percent that was a huge jump from 2020 where the numbers were 16.7 percent and 15.2 percent and the reason is that Google made a huge jump on the net income in 2021.
As you can see their net income went from 40 billion in 2020 to 76 billion in 2021 actually that is mostly the reason the stock is doing poorly lately other than general macroeconomic concerns in the market, because they are comparables from last year here was damn impressive and obviously this Return On Capital Employed numbers reflect on the company's past performance for example in Meta's case they are now throwing tens of billions of dollars on the metaverse and that will be the thing that will affect the Return on Capital Employed and return on invested capital in the coming years and finally we have Alibaba here as you can see in 2014 they returned on Capital employed was over 40 percent and now it is under 10 percent but we all know Alibaba is known for investing in many areas and getting high returns, so maybe they have lost their edge in the last few years or something else has been happening and that is why these ratios are good to use but never paint the full picture and you should always dig deeper in the company's that you are investing in.
In the example of Alibaba, their competition like JD, Pinduoduo and Tencent are forcing them to lower their margins to keep their market share and the Chinese government is forcing them to contribute to their common prosperity fund, which all lowers Alibaba's Returns On Capital Employed. So it is always important to know the situation the company is in before jumping to conclusions on the company based on their Return On Capital Employed numbers, so that was it for today I hope you liked it please subscribe if you did, other than that I'll see you in the next one.
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