Joel Greenblatt's Long Term Stocks Guide..

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결론: 영상은 그린블랫의 가치투자 원칙과 마법공식을 소개하며, 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 직접적 예측은 없다. 주제 1 - 주식의 본질: 주식은 사업의 소유 지분이며, 복잡한 비율 자체가 아니라 사업 가치를 평가해 사는 것이다. 장기 보유(10년) 관점이 필요하다고 강조. 주제 2 - 가치 평가 방법: 집을 사는 비유로 설명. 임대수익률(예: 연 7~9%)과 유사 자산 대비 상대적 저평가 여부를 함께 본다. 절대적·상대적 가치 지표를 병행해야 하며, 상대적으로만 싼 것은 함정일 수 있다(닷컴버블 당시 상대적으로 싼 인터넷주 사례). 주제 3 - 공매도 견해: 그린블랫은 시장이 장기간 비이성적일 수 있어 주식을 공매도하지 않는다고 밝힘(최대 수익 2배, 최악 파산인 구조에 대한 비판). 주제 4 - 백테스트 결과: 1992~2012년 미국 상위 2만 개 기업을 가치지표로 순위화한 결과, 가장 저평가된 상위 1% 그룹의 연평균 1년 후 수익률은 약 38%, 가장 고평가 그룹은 낮았다. 단, 단기 구간에서는 잘 맞지 않는다는 한계도 인정. 주제 5 - 마법공식: 이익수익률(Earnings Yield)과 투하자본이익률(ROIC) 두 변수를 사용해 두 지표가 모두 높은 기업을 선호. 이익수익률은 높은데 ROIC가 낮으면 사업 미래에 대한 경고 신호로 볼 수 있다는 설명. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 2008년 이후 모든 기업이 상대적으로 싸 보였다는 장기적 관찰만 언급.

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01. Jo greenat gutam Capital managed to have annualized returns of over 40% for two decades in this video we will be looking at what Joel greenblat looks for when he invests in a business he is also a known writer he wrote the little book that beats the market and you can be a stock market genius even if you are not too smart I have read them both and I can't recommend them enough I don't follow the magic formula investing method but it opens your brain when it comes to the world of value also green blad has a lot of humor in his books so it makes those even better reads he reminds me of Peter Lynch in many ways green blat had a talk at Google and we will now cover a clip from his talk if you want to watch the whole video I will leave a link in the description stocks are not pieces of paper that uh bounce up and down you put uh complicated ratios on like sharp ratios or Cino ratios stocks or ownership shares of businesses that you are valuing and if some in client tried to buy at a discount that right there is the first thing investors need to understand you are not just buying a piece of paper you are becoming a a small owner of a business Buffett says that if you are not willing to hold a stock for 10 years don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes value investing is a whole other business than trading so if you believe what Ben Graham said that this horizontal line is fair value and this wavy line around that horizontal line are stock prices and you have a disciplined process to buy perhaps more than your fair share when they're below the line and if someone cined sell or short more than your fair share when they're above the line the market is throwing us pitches all of the time there is one thing I don't agree with here and that is I never short a stock simply because the markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent and why would you go for a deal where your max return is a double and your worst return is bankruptcy uh the reason people don't outperform the market there are behavioral problem there are Agency problems but it's not because we're not getting those uh opportunities uh I will show you uh briefly let me tell you how we value stocks uh it's not very tough and I think most of you will understand it uh and I think the best example that resonates seems to resonate with most people is uh thinking about buying a house and to keep the number simple let's say that someone is asking a million dollars for the house they want to sell and your job is to figure out whether that's a good deal or not so there's certain questions you would ask for first one of the first questions I'd ask is well how much rents could I get for that thing okay so in other words if I rented out that million house how much rent would I collect if I uh were going to collect 70 880 $90,000 a year 78 9% yield on that house that's one way I might go about valuing it and what's the next question you would ask I'm pretty sure I know what it would be uh what are the other houses on the Block going for in the block next door in the town next door how does this compare how relatively cheap is this relative to all my current choices so that's what we do we look at how relatively cheap is this business relative to other similar businesses relative to a whole universe of choices that I have we do that the house is a great example and all of these questions are on point definitely checklist worthy questions we also go back in history look at how this company or uh this house has traditionally been valued versus other ones in the neighborhood or versus uh other communities and how is it being valued now so measures of absolute relative value absolutely cheap you know on a rental basis absolutely cheap or relatively cheap on all different kinds of measures that that make sense to you now we you wouldn't use any of these measures all by themselves if you just use relative cheapness uh if some of you remember the internet bubble and you bought the cheapest internet stock that wasn't cheap it was just cheap relative to all the other crazy priced stocks at the time this is a great example and also works both ways green blads here talks about about the time of the internet bubble where every internet company was very expensive but there are also times like post 2008 where every company seems relatively cheap I believe that in a situation like that instead of buying AT&T at onetime earnings it would be much better time to buy Costco at single Digital earnings of course these are just examples that I made up to make my point I don't expect either of those companies to go down as low but we use we use our measures of absolute relative values checks and balances against each other to try to zero in onfair value so when you do this uh just want to show you a simple chart uh this is actually a study we did of our valuation methodology very very similar to the way I just said we value uh a house this is how we we looked at the 200,000 largest companies in the US over a 20-year period this was 1992 to 2012 and we ranked them on a daily basis from 1 to 2000 based on their discount to our assessment of value using these metrics the x-axis here you probably can't see it uh is just valuation percentile all this means is if you're in the bottom leftand corner and you're in the first percentile you're the 20 companies at any particular time out of those 2,000 that measure cheapest according to our measures of absolute relative value uh go to the 99th percentile uh you would be the 20 companies that measure most expensive out of those 2,000 the y axis is uh the year forward return on average during those 20 years what this chart simply says is on average stocks that fell in our first percentile the cheapest 20 uh averaged a one-year forward return during those 20 years of 38% stocks that ranked in our second percentile averaged a one-ear forward return of about 37% and then we dropped down to this best fit line which we always say we don't mind missing when we're making extra money and then as we measure something more expensive the year forward return drops and if you were sitting in my class at Columbia and I said hey does anyone see a long short strategy you might pursue if you could predict ahead of time which stocks would do best second best third best in order and you did not say I guess I'd buy these guys up here in the upper leand corner and short these guys in the bottom right hand corner if you didn't say that I'd probably throw you out a class because it's very straightforward that's what you should do and by the way that's what we do now this chart is great the best companies to buy according to his valuation metrics are the best performers you can see them on the left side of the chart and the worst companies according to his metrics return the lowest the important thing to understand is that stocks are ownership shares of businesses okay now uh by the way that beautiful chart I showed you with the 90% fit you know why isn't everyone do this uh well unfortunately it doesn't look like that when you're living through that that's an average over 20 years if I showed you a snippet of three or four years uh the fit would be nice it might be 0556 something like that but uh it's uh not going to be very Cooperative right if what we did worked every day and every month and every year uh everyone would do it it would stop working but but it uh it it doesn't unfortunately now when we talk about D green blad the first thing that comes to mind is the magic formula and the magic formula basically has two variables the earning sealed and the return on Capital earning sealed is basically how much the company is making divided by what you are paying for it the return on invested capital is net operating profit after tax divided by invested Capital basically to find out if they are making profitable Investments for both the earnings yield and the return on Capital the higher the better so if a company has a 20% earnings yield meaning a p of five and a high return on Capital let's say 25% that company would probably get a great score on the magic formula the best thing I love about this is it shows how easy it is to eliminate bad companies when you are looking for new ideas and it also shows the strengths and weaknesses of a company you might like for example if a company you are planning to invest in has a high earnings yield meaning things are going good right now but a low return on investment that might warn you about the future of that business and you might want to dig deeper and try to figure out that reason the return on investment is low so the magic formula Ro just makes the investment process much simpler in my opinion so that was it for today if you like this video please leave a like And subscribe and if you have any questions or thoughts you can let me know in the comment section take care bye