저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 구글(알파벳) 매수와 기존 포트폴리오를 분석하며 진행자는 구글에 대해 여전히 강세 입장이다. 애크먼 포트폴리오: 넷플릭스는 2022년 초 매수 후 이탈했으나 이후 반등해 그의 판단이 결과적으로 아쉬웠다. 금리 베팅으로 수익을 냈고 2020년 숏으로 큰 수익을 낸 바 있다. 2023년 1분기 구글 지분을 약 10억 달러어치 추가 매수했다. 구글 분석: 매출은 전년 대비 약 10% 성장했으나 순이익은 약 16% 감소해 마진이 축소됐다. 클라우드(GCP)는 아직 적자지만 매출이 2년간 두 배로 늘었고 마진이 개선 중이다. 2021년 잉여현금흐름 670억 달러, 2022년 600억 달러로 추정하며 주가 90~110 구간에서 FCF 수익률은 약 5%(SBC 반영 시 3.6%) 수준이다. 향후 SBC 감소와 FCF 증가를 기대한다. 진행자 매매: 구글을 105 부근에서 매수해 약 15% 비중까지 늘렸고 최저 83.64에 물타기했다. 평균 105 부근에서 전량 매도 후 리서치 모션(RIM) 비중을 약 70%까지 늘렸다. 애크먼 주요 보유: 1위 기업(우량 배당주)은 2018년 이후 주가가 200달러 이상으로 130% 이상 상승, 치폴레(2016년 매수, 5배 수익), QSR(2020년 저점 매수, 70% 이상 수익), 힐튼, Uber, 캐나다 퍼시픽 철도가 주요 보유 종목이다. 진행자 평가: 애크먼의 투자 스타일(해자가 깊은 기업을 시장이 외면할 때 매수, 장기 보유)은 높이 평가하지만 외식업은 역량 범위 밖이라 평가하기 어렵다고 밝힘. 유명 투자자 13F: 버핏은 애플 일부 매도/추가, BAC 추가, 옥시덴털 매수, HP 15% 증가. 마이클 버리는 JD·알리바바 비중 확대(포트폴리오의 약 20%). 테리 스미스는 아이덱스 일부 매도. 모니시 파브라이는 마이크론 일부 정리. 가이 스피어는 변동 없음.
다듬은 글
Bill Eckman made a very smart move last quarter he bought Google Shares after losing big on Netflix and he was rewarded handsomely in this video we will explore his Google investment and what I think about the company I also invested in Google when it was trading around 90 and sold it near 110 to buy more research I am still very bullish on Google and I will share my reasons of why we will also take a look at Blackman's portfolio overall and then I will show a couple of my favorite super investors like monish babri and Guy Speer are doing with their money now that the 13th season is over according to his latest 13 of filing Blackman's hedge fund revealed a new stake in Google he bought more than 10 million shares worth over 1 billion dollars bill Eggman unlike many other super investors runs a very concentrated portfolio where his top three Holdings laws Chipotle and restaurant Brands make up 52 percent of his portfolio and his investment in Google is now combined 10 between the two tickers of course that is among the US Holdings according to google they arrested summer management is around 18 million dollars and around 10 million of it is in U.S stocks lately you might have heard eggman's name with Netflix where he bought the stock after its initial decline where it went from almost 700 to me 300 early 2022 but after his initial purchase he has closed the position the very next quarter where Netflix had another root fall down and went down more to less than 200 which meant more than 70 decline from the initial 700 range that was quite right Netflix after that recovered and made eggman's trades look even worse that was a recent interview with Blackman from the markets Insider and I will leave a link in the description if you want to read more of it in the interview he said that often Netflix announced they will have a basic plan with ads they were no longer confident in estimating Netflix's future cash flows so it was economically rational thing to sell it another important thing for Eggman in the last year was their interest rate edges they made a lot of money from that Ekman is actually pretty good at macro events he even had a 100x from his shorts in 2020 and the funny thing is he actually went on TV back then and said hell is coming why leave a short on the markets now let's focus back on in the first quarter this year when Eggman invested in Google was actually down more than 40 percent from its previous eyes now before we get deeper into Google let's watch this video from Charlie manger back in the 2019 meeting Larry talked about Google in an answer Warren and I are a little older than some people and they enter everybody and we're not the most flexible probably in the whole world and of course if something is Extreme as this internet development happens and you don't catch it away other people are going to blow by you and I don't mind not having caught Amazon early the guy is kind of a miracle worker it's very peculiar I I give myself a pass on that but I feel like a horse's ass for not identifying Google better I think Warren feels the same way yeah we should be screwed up he's saying we blew it and we did have some insights into that because we were using them at Geico and we were seeing the results produced and we saw that we were paying ten dollars a click or whatever it might have been for something that at a marginal cost to them of exactly zero and and we saw it was working for us so we can see in our own operations oh well that Google advertising was working and we just sat there sucking our thumbs you know so we're ashamed we're trying to atone maybe Apple was atonement he says sucking her thumbs I'm just glad he didn't use some other example I believe Margaret previously said that Google's mode was the widest he had ever seen so when a company like that goes on a 40 sale my interest levels suddenly go way up Google is one of the most interesting companies out there they are battling with Microsoft and open area collaboration to be the best AI company and it's not just Bart against being Orchard GPT they are working on lots of other things including text free image and even text video which is pretty interesting also they are implementing AI more into cloud and workspace as the time goes on Google might have the best balance sheet out there and looking at their revenues and net income their revenues growing on 10 percent year over year but their net income fell around 16 so their margins have shrunk but let me remind you that gcp the Google Cloud platform is still operating at a loss gcp's Revenue has doubled in the last two years and their margins are going in the right direction while still being negative and their competitors Azure and Amazon web services both have net margins of around 30 so gcp not having that actually creates a 10 billion dollars ring in their bottom line according to my calculations Google had 67 billion free cash flow in 2021 and 60 billion in 2022.
no matter how we look at it they are crushing it on all cylinders so it's 90 range their market cap was 1.14 trillion dollars their price for free cash flow using 60 billion as their free cash flow was 19. so the infinity cash flow yield was a little over five percent but of course you might say they also had 19 million dollars as stock based compensation which I totally agree that it's a lot and they definitely should bring the headcount down like Zuckerberg did with meta but even accounted for the USBC their yield would be 3.6 percent but when I look at the state of the company going forward I would expect their stock based comp to go down or stay segment for the next few years and they'll free cash flow to increase now these are my bullish thesis for Google I can't say for a fact that these are the exact reasons Ekman bought in but I would assume there are lots of overlap I personally started buying Google when I saw it hit 105 range I built up around 15 allocation with Google while continuously averaging down my lowest buy was at 83 dollars and 64 cents I closed my position on an average price around 105 dollars which was my initial entry point but it wasn't because I didn't like Google at those prices I certainly did however I thought that the upside for me with research was so much more than it was with Google so I decided to relocate the capital with raysash I did the same with Amazon and meta actually research is now making up almost 70 percent of my portfolio and that decision paid me nicely now other than the interest rate bets and the Google investment if you look at Blackman's portfolio as I said before it is very concentrated his top position is lost with almost 20 allocation he initially bought a huge stake in 2018 then he bought some more during the 2020 crash I would assume his average cost is around 90 range and the stock is now sitting at a little over 200 that's more than a 130 percent gain in five short years and that is excluding the dividends and lows is actually dividend Aristocrats and I would assume his yield on cost is over four percent so that has been an incredible investment for him his second installing is Chipotle with a 17 allocation he invested in Chipotle in 2016 after the company had a Health crisis and it was an incredible time to invest in Chipotle the stock price was around 400 when Ekman invested in and now it is over two thousand dollars and that means five times your money in just seven short years his third company is qsr the restaurant Prince International Leon Burger King Popeyes Tim Hortons and so forth Eckman invested in the most volatile times in 2020 crash he could have paid anywhere between 38 dollars to 58 dollars so assuming a 45 average cost he is now up more than 70 percent in three years which is incredibly good and that is also excluding dividends qsr is another dividend stock with a current yield of almost 3 percent Ekman sealed on cost would be closer to five percent which is pretty nice his other companies are Hilton Hotels with 12 percent allocation however use which is a rate by the way with another 12 percent allocation again and Canadian Pacific the railroad company with 11.5 percent allocation and then obviously Google with around 10 percent combined in the two tickers in the end I can't really say that I personally like Blackman a lot but I really like his investment style he identifies companies with durable and deep modes and then markets hate them it might be Chipotle self-concerned or jtp here with Google he savings are and then holds on to those companies also he is really talented investing in restaurants which I admire because restaurants are almost completely out of my circle of competence I owned Starbucks for a while but then I sold out because my conviction with them in the long run was very weak not that I thought they were too bad I just simply couldn't feel safe with their mod and before closing let's look at some of my favorite investors 13 F's we already covered Blackman looking at Buffett he didn't do much he bought some Apple Bank of America sold some Chevron and bought more accidental and he increased HP by 15 I covered HP and Occidental in my channel before and I definitely suggest checking them out if you aren't yet lilu streamed Micron by 40 and bought more Bank of America like Warren Buffett Michael body is always a treat to follow he increased JD and Alibaba they now make up 20 of the portfolio assuming he hasn't sold any and he bought lots of other things I'm not gonna actually name them you can stop the video and check it out but I would suggest to be very very careful cloning Michael birdie Because by the time we hear about the companies he has invested in he might actually have sold out looking at Terry Smith he didn't do much he trimmed idex and stay louder a little and I am very curious what he will do with Esther loader in the coming months monish babri also trained some Micron and he looks to be out of bam and that probably went in bien also for some reason he still has a very little Heritage in there as well finally guys spear literally didn't do anything as manga would say he sat on his ass which is my favorite way of investing so that was it for today I hope you liked it if you did please leave a like comment and subscribe other than that I'll see you in the next one
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