저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 B Joy(버크셔 계열 비유 종목) 초기 투자 후 추가 매수 기회를 놓친 것을 '역대 최악의 결정'으로 회고했다는 일화를 소개. 300주 $115 매수 후 2년 뒤 주가 30배 상승, 추가 1500주 미매수가 기회비용으로 이어졌다는 설명. 내레이터는 집중투자(포트폴리오 60% 단일종목) 시 수익이 극대화된다는 가정 시나리오를 제시하며 본인 포트폴리오도 상위 3종목 78% 집중이라고 밝힘. 과거 사례 중심이며 특정 자산의 향후 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Charlie tell them about the one you missed well I have two Investments that come to mind when I was young and poor I spent $1,000 once buying an oil worldy that paid me 100,000 a year for a great many years but I only did that once in a lifetime and a later occasion I bought a few shares of B Joy which went up 30 times rather quickly and but I turned down five times as much as I bought it was the dumbest decision of my whole life so if any of you have many any dumb decisions look up here and feel good about yourselves if there is one thing I want you to remember from this video it's this Charlie manger made 30 times his money on his worst investment decision how is that possible and what can we learn from it stay with me until the end of this video to find out this is lunch missing Charlie manger explains the B Joy story in further details in the 20 meeting now let's hear it from him before we go on to my comments good morning gentlemen my name is Jay Parker I'm from Washington State and this question regards uh mistakes so that being the case it should probably be directed to Mr manga Mr manga I know you're fond of uh evoking humility to promote rational thought so my question is what's the most recent business mistake that you've made Mr Monga and why did it occur I'm going to take notes on this one the mistakes that have been most extreme in berkshire's history are mistakes of omission uh they don't show up in our figures uh they show up in opportunity cost in other words we we have opportunities we almost do it in retrospect we can tell that we were very much mistaken not to do it in terms of the shareholders those are the ones in our history that have really cost the most and very few managements do much thinking or talking about opportunity costs but Warren we have blown billions and billions and billions I might as well say it right right and we keep doing it some might say we're getting better at it I don't like mentioning the specific companies because the you know we we may in due course want to buy do so at our price but uh practically everywhere in in life and in corporate life too what really costs in comparison with what easily might have been are the blown opportunities I mean just it's an awesome amount of money when I was somewhat younger I was offered 300 shares of B oil an idiot could have told it was no possibil of losing money and a large possibility of making money I bought it the guy called me back 3 days later and offered me500 more shares but this time I had to sell something to buy the damn B oil that mistake if you traced it through was cost me $200 million and I it was all because I I had to go to a slight inconvenience and sell something Berkshire does that kind of thing too we never get over it yeah I might add that when we speak of Errors of of omission of which we've had plenty and some very big ones uh we don't mean not buying some stock where we a friend runs it or we know the name and it went from one to 100 that doesn't mean anything it's only we only regard errors as being things that are within our circle of competence so if somebody knows how to make money in cocoa beans or they know how money make money in a software company or anything and and we miss that that is not an error as far as we're concerned what's an error is when it's something we understand and we stand there and stare at it and we don't do anything or worse yet what really gets me is when we do something very small with it we do an an ey dropper worth of it when we could do it very big U Charlie refers that elegantly when I do that sort of thing is when I'm sucking my thumb uh and and they're really I mean we have we have we have been thumb suckers uh at times with businesses that we understood well and uh it may have been because we started buying and the price moved up a little and and uh we waited around hoping we would get more at the price we originally started there could be a lot of things uh but th those are those are huge mistakes conventional accounting of course does not pick those up at all but but uh they're in our scorebook Charlie manger is widely regarded as one of the smartest and most successful investors of all time and I fully agree with that but even he admits that he made some dumb mistakes in his investing career and the biggest one of them was his investment in B Joy let me tell you what happened in 1977 Charlie manger bought 300 shares of B joyal at $115 per share he spent $34,500 on this investment a few months later he got offered another, 1500 sh shares at the same price of $115 per share but this time he didn't have enough cash to buy them he would have to sell some of his other stocks or borrow money to do so he decided to pass on this opportunity he thought it was inconvenient to liquidate his other assets or take on Dept he didn't want to mess with his portfolio he didn't know that he was making the dumbest decision of his life according to his own NS two years later in 1979 shell bought B Jo for $3,665 per share that is 30 times more than what manger had paid for his 300 shares just 2 years ago he made a 30 beggar in Just 2 years that is an incredible return by any standard but he could have made much more if he had bought the additional 1500 shares he would have owned 1,800 shares of B Joy which would have been worth $6.6 million after sh's acquisition that is a huge difference and that is why T manger calls this his dumbest decision because he missed out on a once in a lifetime opportunity because he let his fear and inertia get in the way of his judgment because he didn't bet big on His Highest conviction idea so what can can we learn from this story I think the main lesson is this the difference between betting big on the companies that you have the most conviction in and spreading your money across many stocks can be enormous let me show you an example let's say we have a portfolio of $100,000 and you run that portfolio 10 x 10 meaning 10% allocations for 10 stocks and for clarification this is not the structure of my portfolio I have over 50% conviction on my biggest position and my top three positions make up 78% of the total portfolio currently but to make it easier let's say a 10x10 portfolio and one of the 10% investment is the initial investment of B joy and on average the stock market returns like 8 to 10% so to make it easier let's say the other stocks return 20% in the two years following the initial investment to B Joy here's what would happen in this scenario your initial investment of $10,000 in B joyal would become $300,000 in 2 years that is a 30 B just like charer your nine other stocks will each grow from $10,000 to $14,400 in 2 years your total portfolio will be worth $48,000 in 2 years which is amazing but what if if you had followed Charlie mang's example and invested 60% of your portfolio in b joyal instead of 10% this scenario assumes that you bought the additional 1500 shares so if 300 shares is 10% of the portfolio 1800 shares would be 60% here's what would happen in this scenario your initial investment of $60,000 in B joyal will become $1.8 million in 2 years your other four stocks will each grow from $10,000 to $14,400 in 2 years just like the first scenario so your total portfolio will be worth 1,848 th000 in 2 years which is just mind-blowing as you can see the difference between the two scenarios is huge by betting big on B Royal you would have made more than four times more money in Just 2 years you would have turned $100,000 into almost $2 million that is the power of conviction that is the power of betting big on your best ideas so as you can see the difference between betting big on the companies that you have the most conviction in and spreading your money across many stocks can be enormous but I also want to say that you should do what works for you you should be invested in the things that allow you to sleep well at night if you don't feel comfortable with having 60% of your portfolio allocated in a single company you may not have been able to sit on this position until shell bought it for 30 times your cost however according to Charlie manger the money he made on B Joel went into his investment in burshire rway and in the 2001 meeting he said that it has cost him $200 million to that day if you trace that even further to today the total cost is at billions of dollars this shows that even the best investors can make mistakes and miss out on opportunities but it also shows that they can learn from their mistakes and move on to the next big thing that is what I try to do with my own portfolio I have over 50% conviction on my biggest position and my top three positions make up 78% of the total portfolio as I said earlier I have done extensive research and Analysis on these companies and I have strong reasons to believe that they will deliver exceptional returns in the long term so I hope you enjoyed this video and learned something new if you like 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