저자: TomLee · 외국인
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미국 증시가 연초 강세를 보이며 올해 20% 상승 가능성을 언급하고, 소형주 상승 여력도 제시. 금리 인하 기대와 인플레이션 재가속이 주요 리스크로 언급됨. 비트코인은 현물 ETF 수요와 반감기 공급 감소를 근거로 12~18개월 내 15만 달러 가능성 제시. 단기적으로는 신고가 후 조정 가능성 언급.
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the stock market seems a lot stronger this year than last year um we've had four consecutive months of gains which Mark Newton our head of technical strategy says is is very rare we already had a pretty nice January a very strong February I I to me if the market gains 20% this year uh which would match what it did in 2023 it wouldn't surprise me but I think the the character would be very different that it would be a lot more sectors participating and you know in some ways I think if if if we are up 20% this year I think small caps could be up a lot more as much as 50% so we're not going to have a down year that you're taking off the table or what is it that would have to happen to throw this you know your your somewhat bullish or pretty bullish uh forecast in Jeopardy what would have to happen I think two things would probably derail an equity move of 20% this year you know something even pushing the markets down one would be if inflation uh reasserts itself in a way that the FED has to reverse its action and become quite hawkish again uh I think that would terrify markets uh the second is if monetary policy so restrictive now that we slip into a recession I I don't think we're losing that much economic momentum but but either would would be negative for stocks okay and so it broadens out do you have a a feel for for interest rates is that how much how important is that to you because we got a jobs number tomorrow that could move uh that could move rates and in the prospects for cuts later this year you probably would be bu more bullish if you could say we're going to have four Cuts this year wouldn't you uh yes I mean I to me more Cuts would be easier for markets to sort of feel comfortable because it would also have as you're pointing out downward pressure on interest rates I've been pretty surprised that interest rates have moved up this year and the stock market has been able to sort of look past that because I I think they're viewing it as rates are rising for the right reasons but yeah I you know a better scenario is of course inflation's falling visibly enough for the FED to begin cut cutting with confidence when you uh when Bitcoin was 4,000 came down from 20,000 and uh you used to come on and say yeah by the end of the year it's going back to 20,000 I I don't know how you how you you feel confident doing those things now you've done it again really and with the I don't know what did you say by the end of next year what what where could it be in your in your view well I I think that in the you know sometime in the next 12 18 months you know Bitcoin can be over 150,000 um but that's because you know the the backdrop for Bitcoin is so much more favorable today we we've got more visible demand from the spot ETF and we know the supply Dynamic is improving with the having coming up which is less than a month away it does help that the FED is becoming uh dovish I mean that's easier monetary policy and I think from a regulatory perspective we had so many hammers dropped in the last 12 months really 18 months that unless it's going to be worse over the next two years you know bitcoin's already faced sort of the peak of regular backlash and it it got through the old highs we we had um a true Bitcoin Bull on earlier saying that in previous instances where it it has reached a new high that it doubles fairly quickly after that I mean he said 18 days uh the minute it hit new high it sold off 10 uh almost $10,000 to 59 but it's back to 67 today um how long before it doubles again I mean could you see that in in the near term another doubling uh I mean near term it's it's hard to know near term joob I know our digital strategist Sean frell said that it's typical to consolidate after making a new high so he thinks for the next nine or 10 days we're going to be maybe chopping around here but we we saw with the the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows like you know Black Rock seeing almost 800 million in inflows so I think as long as there's strong spot demand and there aren't eager sellers uh you do have a market that's out of balance that there's too much demand for Bitcoin not enough Supply created through the block reward right and as a measure of of risk on I I guess the NASDAQ sometimes even tracks Bitcoin doesn't it uh yes it's a a study we did several years ago showed that the best years for Bitcoin occurred when the S&P and the NASDAQ had their best year so I think it does con sort of confirm the idea that Bitcoin is is a risk on asset today so as long as Bitcoin does well it's it's actually bullish for stocks did you notice the other day the The Wall Street Journal in the headline it it was describing the move in in Bitcoin and it said a a new high for the currency I had never seen that in uh in the Wall Street Journal before usually I don't know what I don't know what you call it I still don't know what to call it really but uh front page it said currency is it a currency yeah I mean that's a uh I I miss that that's a great term it's certainly better than someone calling it sardine cans are tulip bubbles just to put a fine point on this issue about the correlation with the markets and how do you you so you're saying it's correlated to the markets uh and we have a market that's that's doing quite well and as we said we appears the economy is doing quite well the idea that it would do very well in a bad economy which is what a lot of people have have been trying to suggest I think on this broadcast earlier today is that right or wrong uh you know I I think Bitcoin is a a hedge against uh unsound money and and that's why when Joe you know talked about it as a currency that's how many people do view it because uh you know Bitcoin has its own unit value and it's measured against dollars and I think it's the same way people measure uh gold against dollar so I think if there is an event and we've seen it in Turkey or Venezuela that when those currencies collapse Bitcoin has been a way for people to preserve well so I I don't want to see that test sort of put in the US but I think that's one reason people own Bitcoin
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