저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 세계를 직접 여행하며 현지 변화를 포착해 투자해 왔고, 현재 미국의 막대한 부채와 달러 약세 가능성, 금융위기 가능성을 경고한다. - 여행 경험: 보츠와나와 중국에서 현지 변화를 직접 보고 투자를 시작했으며, 이란과 차드 등 가보지 못한 나라에 대한 관심을 밝혔다. - 개인사: 앨라배마 작은 마을 출신으로 어릴 때 전화번호가 5번이었다고 회상하며, 월가 진출 과정과 조지 소로스 퀀텀펀드 근무 경험을 언급했다. - 1987년 블랙먼데이: 포트폴리오 보험 등으로 과열된 시장을 보고 공매도로 대비했고, 10월 19일 대폭락으로 큰 수익을 냈다고 설명했다. 과열 시장은 역사적으로 반복된다고 경고했다. - 투자 교훈: 공매도로 6개월 만에 3배 수익을 냈지만 이후 시장이 예상과 달리 움직여 전액 손실을 본 경험을 공유하며, 옳은 판단도 큰 손실이 날 수 있으니 신중하라고 조언했다. - 미국 부채 경고: 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이며, 역사적으로 부채가 커진 국가는 통화가 약세로 가고 외환통제 등으로 쇠퇴한다고 주장했다. 파운드화가 기축통화 지위를 잃은 사례를 근거로 들었다. - 비트코인: 많은 암호화폐가 0으로 사라진 점을 들어 회의적 입장을 보였다. 우크라이나 평화 등 비관론이 걷히면 큰 랠리가 나올 수 있다는 가능성은 언급했으나 예측은 아니라고 선을 그었다. - 중국과 지정학: 트럼프 행정부 등 정치인들이 외국을 탓하는 프로파간다를 비판하고, 미중 관계 악화를 우려했다. 기존 강대국과 신흥 강국의 충돌이 역사적으로 전쟁으로 이어졌다고 설명했다. - 결론적 시각: 투자자는 정치적 선전과 과열을 경계하고, 장기적으로 부채·통화·지정학 리스크를 주시해야 한다는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
um I certainly for one thing I found that we're all the same no matter where I went people would say where did you come from I said we came from there and they would say oh gosh those are dangerous people but then they'd say where are you going I said we're going to oh they're worse those are very danger we all are afraid of each other and politicians love to Stir It Up they love to stir up that other people are different and therefore bad but now we're all the same we all want the same things out of life and if we can all just sing and dance together the world will be a much much better place is there anywhere that um you wish that you had gotten to travel um if you look back on that time anywhere or yeah is there a place that you haven't gone that you wish you could have gone during your travels well I wish I had traveled had had the opportunity to travel more in Iran they would not let me I saw a little bit of Iran but not not what I wanted to uh for some reason I have in my mind that I want to go to Chad in the middle of Africa if you asked me a while so I don't know but I know it's one of the few countries in Africa that I haven't traveled through but uh other than those I'm sure that many places in fact I will answer to you uh and tell you Julia in any place I haven't been is where I want to go uh and some of them I want to go again but no I still have this uh urge to see the world um what I also liked in your books is um during your travels it almost like opened you up to investment opportunities you told the story about going through Botswana um and eventually investing there so how did um that experience or those experiences how did that help you as an investor or shape you as an investor well you're given the nature of my background if I go somewhere and I see something happening I don't just wave and say oh isn't that interesting I then pursue it when I see a positive change taking place when I cross the board I've driven all through Africa and I got there Botswana and I crossed the border and I said whatever this is it's different this is a very different place you know everything was efficient worked properly and quickly no black market Etc so I knew immediately I was in a different place the roads were different the signs everything was different I got to the Capitol and I asked if there was a stock market there was I went down and I started investing because I could see that this was a unique country and a unique experience and it was different from other places yeah but that happened whenever I saw something different happening positive I got involved by just to go back before I had noticed when I drove through China in years previous oh my gosh everything I had been told about China is wrong all that American propaganda about what evil vicious bloodthirsty dangerous people the Chinese are was wrong I could see that they were ambitious hard-working educate disciplined and so I started investing in China because I could see from close to the ground that things were different yeah it's a it's a such an interesting perspective too and especially being on the ground and just the way you view the world um I want to talk a bit about your earlier years you mentioned growing up in a small town in Alabama I heard you say your number was five like someone would just dial five and they could get you on the phone that's incredible so let's go back to you there were no dolls there was no dogs you you picked up the phone and you waited and eventually a lady would come and she would say number please in other words what no what number do you want and I would tell her the number that I was calling and then she would connect me to that number and then I could we could speak the people and I could speak there were also something when we first well the first kid uh we it was a party line so that more than one house shared the same numbers and if and people could listen in if I call Joe people down the road could listen to what Joe and I were talking about uh it was an often occurrence in those days but we did eventually we got off the party line and our phone number was was five just one five business school or medical school I went to Wall Street as soon as I could yeah yeah you were working with George Soros um as part of the quantum fund um talk to me about your time there and what did you learn from your experience of working with George Soros well I mean hey that was over 40 years ago you might as well ask me about my first wife I mean that was a long long time ago I've had no contact with him since uh what I learned I guess whether we work hard and you do what you're supposed to you might become successful I loved what I was doing and I that's that's what I wanted to do in life at the time and I spent all my time all my as much as I could anyway trying to find Investments and did so and we had some success yeah well okay you mentioned it was a long time ago but there's one day that I'm sure you will not forget because it was on your birthday and that was October 19th 1987.
um that was before I was born but I was hoping maybe just for folks listening um a lot of my viewers and listeners weren't around then can you take us back to that time period because you you saw that one coming well yes I mean sometimes I do get it right but I I was selling short uh in 1987 because I thought I could see that we were going to have a big collapse in the in the stock market um and I was selling short and then lo and behold October 19th which was my birthday is my birthday came along and we had the biggest collapse in the stock market we'd ever had in history the history of the Stock Exchange what a birthday present what a fantastic birthday present uh who knew it was going to happen on my birthday but it was quite a quite a good day for me yeah what was what what was what was kind of um what was it that kind of tipped you off or made you kind of sense out what were you seeing or what was kind of happening at that at that time oh guys it's a long time ago but mainly there was a huge amount of speculation everybody was talking about how things were going to be good forever there was something called portfolio insurance that was concocted at the time and people assumed they could never lose money because they would ensure their portfolios well portfolio insurance if things went bad it would get worse because both folio and shows was essentially selling uh selling protection and if they did get bad you'd have to sell more and didn't they so I I assumed that it would be quite a bad day if and when people started having problems and lo and behold I mean I mean it's not the first time I've seen a a market get overheated uh you know I do have more experience now and overheated markets have happened throughout history all over the world they're happening again and they're always going to happen so just be careful yeah um you know I guess for folks also listening and watching uh Jim you've been a bit of a sage a bit of a soothsayer I would say you got 1987 right you you got the financial crisis right you're short Fannie Mae um that's something you wrote about in the books um I think even the banks um you also got the Commodities bull market right and I guess like what I want to know is how you you tend to look at things differently which I think is really neat can you kind of talk to us about the way you look at things or your process or just like a bit more about like the lens in which you look at the world or investing well you're first of all I want you to not make any mistakes uh you will I'll tell you about my first wife what a mistake that was what what a foolish mistake that was we all learned yeah well hopefully we all learn I certainly learned from from that experience I guess part answer your question is that I I having Grown Up In the Backwoods of Alabama where nobody had any money I remember when I went to Wall Street I would hear people say the strangest things it was almost like money could just grow on trees like money was easy to get well now back where I grew up money wasn't easy to get not moving away from it they started looking for other currencies to use instead and they some people start using the new currency whatever it happens to be you know when the pound sterling was the world's Reserve currency people's gradually and slowly started moving to the U.S dollar and using the US dollar and fewer and fewer people use the pound sterling I mean I don't think many people now talk about the pound sterling as a medium of exchange someday but not many um and next thing you know it is the dollar and nobody uses Sterling anymore Sterling gets a little pound sterling get it's lesson that's valuable often countries have to impose exchange controls when things like this happen and it gets to be ugly I mean that many many people left the United Kingdom as things got worse and worse and unfortunately nobody wants to leave I mean few people want to leave the US now but I'm afraid that if things do get worse and the value of the money goes down in the US imposes exchange controls which nearly always has happened in history more and more people will not want to go to the U.S and some will even leave how about some of your um prescriptions for the U.S is there anything that you think the U.S or America that America could do um to make something oh yeah these are simple these are simple lessons his history show you you got to cut your deficit spending and you've got to cut your debt with a nap not an ax with a chainsaw I mean you have to take drastic action because things are so bad now I'll repeat we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world now what has ever been as deep in death and history is very very clear when this happens countries the currency goes into Decline and eventually the country goes into the cloud I mean it's been happening for hundreds of years yeah how about um I want to bring this up with you how about how about Bitcoin well I thought Bitcoin is there a lot of people trading cryptocurrencies and having a lot of fun so I'm making money I've been many cryptocurrencies which have already disappeared and gone to zero as I'm sure you know so it's not that much fun and games as people of Hope but you've been so much pessimism around right now usually when there's huge specimens if something happens to break the pessimism and we have a big rally I don't know and this is not a prediction but let's say there was peace in Ukraine well that would cause a lot of pessimism to disappear Mark gets all over the world would have a big rally and that would in my view probably be the last route and it could be a very very big rally because there's so much money around uh but that is my view and when there's a people get very very optimistic a way to make money is to sell short uh not always but there's well there is always something that's getting overpriced but it's not always that you have the whole Market getting overpriced and that may happen again and when it does I urge people to learn about selling short um I guess in in that vein too like in your own experience like what what were some of the things that you learned about short selling do you have any like takeaways especially for the younger investors out there watching and listening well one of my great early early successes on Wall Street was I uh was pessimistic I bought puts which is another way to settle sure and within six months I had tripled my money when everybody around me was going broke and I said oh this is easy I'm a genius I'm going to be so rich so I reverse my position the day the market hit bottom which made me think I was even smarter I waited for the market to Rally I did so I sold shorts six stocks and three months later I lost everything everything and which it leads me to the lesson that people need to know is markets can do strange things uh I was right about everything all six of those companies eventually went bankrupt so what I lost everything first even though I was right about those companies and you have to know that the market will do things that none of us can believe and so when you fell short you better be careful of the market and other people yeah but even if you're right you can lose a lot of money yeah the painful lessons because yeah you're right because it's like it can be almost infinite losses I suppose if it rips higher um when you're not almost it can be and when I've lost it so be careful be careful those are um certainly good lessons I want to go back to um China because you've been invested there for for a long time and you've been going to China for decades now um and there's a lot of conversation these days about China and geopolitical tensions there what do you make of it um and I guess like to ask you what do you think is next for China well it certainly agrees me to see what's this what Washington is doing Mr Trump especially with one you know whatever politicians in any country throughout history have had problems they blame the foreigners it's always easy to blame the forest because they have different skin different language different foods different everything so everybody loves to blame the farmers all over the world throughout history whoever the foreigners are you blame the forest when their problems so Trump started doing him unfortunately it has continued and these things do have a way of building up I mean China and America have some fantastic 20 or 30 years where we were both making a lot of money together I would love to see that again Chinese don't particularly dislike Americans and Americans don't well they do now because the propaganda has been so vicious on both sides especially our side uh unfortunately throughout history whenever there's been a dominant power that's either stagnant or in Decline and a rising power they have often clashed uh and that has sometime led to war it agrees me a lot because there's no reason for us to dislike each other or to fight with each other some of the stuff I see the propaganda I see on both sides it's just appalling to me but propaganda has always been appalling throughout history all over the world it's amazing what governments can say and do and people start to believe it you know one of the first probably the original guy who understood propaganda was named gurgles he was a Nazi and he kept saying you know if we say the same thing enough times everybody will believe it unfortunately he was right and governments have learned that they just keep you if you keep saying the same thing eventually everybody believes it no matter how absurd it might be do you worry that there'll be a conflict well until you haven't read enough history to know that we've had Wars since the beginning of time
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