저자: 스탠리드러켄밀러 · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 약세장이 아직 끝나지 않았으며 연착륙 가능성은 매우 낮다고 본다. 인플레이션과 연준: 연준이 인플레이션 대응이 늦었다고 평가하며, 2022년 3월까지 채권을 매입하고 11월까지 피벗을 하지 않은 것이 매우 큰 비용을 초래했다고 본다. 인플레이션이 5%를 넘은 뒤 연착륙한 역사는 거의 없다고 강조한다. 시장 전망: 약세장 6개월 차이며 상당한 하락 여력이 남아 있다고 본다. 주식 밸류에이션은 일부 개선됐으나 자산 거품 붕괴가 진행 중이며, 일부 우량 기업도 펀더멘털 변화 없이 60~70% 디레이팅됐다. 단기 매매자는 첫 번째 하락 구간이 끝났을 수 있으나 베어마켓이 더 진행될 가능성이 매우 높다고 본다. 경기 지표: 주택·트럭킹·소매 등 선행 산업 주가를 경기 신호로 활용한다. 홈빌더는 고점 대비 50% 하락, 트럭킹 관련 주는 40% 하락, 소매 업종도 약세로 경기 침체의 조기 신호로 본다. 다만 이들 지표는 6~12개월 선행하므로 즉각적 회복은 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 채권 시장: 중앙은행의 QE로 장기금리 신호 기능이 약화됐다고 평가하며, 과거처럼 채권 가격으로 경기를 판단하기 어렵다고 말한다. 포지셔닝: 최근 6~8개월간 단기 채권 매도, 주식 숏, 일부 원자재(특히 석유, 금) 보유로 수익을 냈다고 밝힌다. 현재는 운용이 매우 어렵다고 진단한다. 리스크: 연준이 금리를 CPI 이상으로 올리지 못할 가능성, 자산 거품 붕괴에 따른 대규모 부실 가능성이 주요 위험 요인이다.
다듬은 글
thanks John um it was nice of you to cite a period that's actually turned out the way I've said because in my career I've said many things that didn't turn out so you're your selective picking was uh quite nice look um I I did say all that and I I would just say that a number of things happened since then uh some which didn't surprise me some which did um a the inflation was actually a little higher than I thought it would be although I thought it was going to be above six percent which at this time seemed quite radical um be the bubble has really burst with a Vengeance a lot more than you can see in the s p a lot of very good companies um have been derated 60 70 percent without a whole lot of change in fundamentals so valuations have improved relative they were and then see I'd say the biggest surprise since I talked last spring was how slow the Fed was to recognize the problem I thought they were slow not recognizing it less in April 21 but they were still buying Bonds in March of 22 and they were still not even pivoting verbally until November I think that period was incredibly costly because a lot of assets uh a lot of assets were purchased during that period that I think a lot of people moving out the risk Curve will lose a lot of money on I would just say where are we now it's hard to believe given the extent of the monetary policy the last 10 or 11 years I think globally we had 30 trillion of QE even as late as I think a year ago there was 18 trillion of debt that was still negative yielding when the world was about to experience eight percent inflation it's pretty it's pretty extraordinary so it's hard for me to believe you could have Unwound all that that created in terms of a misallocation of resources in six months so my best guess and um this business is about guessing there are no certainties is that we're six months into a bear Market that has some room to run for those tactically trading it's possible the first leg of that has ended um but I think it's highly highly probable that the bear Market has a ways to run is it going to be a soft Landing or a hard Landing well the answer is I don't know but the probabilities of it being a soft Landing are pretty remote John historically I think we've only pulled off two or three in history the one I lived through and remember so well was 94.95 one but we've never had a soft Landing after inflation's gotten above four and a half percent and the situation we face now is extraordinary where the FED um where are we these days I guess we're at 75 basis points I can't keep up but even the projections of two percent you're so far behind the inflation rate and there's so much wood to chop and there's been such a broad asset bubble going into it um it's very hard for me to say that the probabilities favor a soft Landing indeed I think they aggressively point to a hard Landing anything's possible as I said earlier I've been wrong plenty of times in my career but betting on a soft Landing to me is a real is a real long shot so you think once inflation goes above five percent it's very hard to tame us in a way that's elegant well that's what history says it's there there's an interesting historical fact which in fact I think is going to be violated but two undefeated records are number one once inflation gets above five percent it's never come down unless fed funds have gotten above the CPI well since the CPI is eight that would call for a Fed funds rate of above eight frankly I don't think we'll get there because the extent of the asset bubble and the Damage that would be done think about the fact that we have virtually no bankruptcies and look at this probably the most disruptive period um since the 1890s I don't need to tell a founder of stripe that but if you look across the landscape there should have been many many many bankruptcies which have been buried by QE so if in fact fed funds ever got to eight percent which by the way I don't think is going to happen the destruction would be quite material the other the other statistical fact is once once inflation's got above five percent to use your word it's never been tamed without a recession so if you're predicting a soft Landing you're going against Decades of History Could Happen anything's possible but I don't think it's probable yeah I think those um historical examples are quite sobering was it you said that once inflation goes about five percent it has never come back down without the FED funds rate going above the CPI yes is currently eight year over year um I actually think we are going to violate history and it is going to come down I don't know how far but without that happening the second one n it's a guess it's not a fact as we talk about what's going on in the market uh uh or sorry in the economy and not the market you know one thing I find really interesting about your style is people like to try out the phrase you know the stock market is not the economy but uh you have you know been on the record a number of times talking about how you use the stock market as a signal for what's going on in the market uh in the economy and so you know you have this distributed team if you look at all the you know stock analysts out there uh covering all these different stocks and all these different uh sectors they're kind of like the you know engineer in the cockpit of the train and you know when the uh you know dial starts flashing and you know it's a sign that you can investigate more so I'd love to talk about this approach where you are using movements and stock prices to decide or to to know that something's going on there maybe I should go investigating yeah uh one of the ironies in my style maybe it's because I was a Dropout um of a PhD program in economics at University of Michigan is that I don't use what traditional economists use to predict the economy which is things like employment and a bunch of macro top-down statistics in fact I started my career as a bank in a chemical analyst and over time I learned that the inside of the stock market had a very very present message about future economic activity and for whatever reason stocks tend to lead the Fundamentals by somewhere between 6 and 12 months and you can even go beyond that and look at industries that lead the economy and industries that lag the economy the obvious one that everyone knows about is housing has traditionally been looked at as the leading in this industry retail has a slightly capital goods lag and what we've done historically is actually even though you referred to me as a macro investor and many people have is we do the macro by a comp compilation of listening to companies and doing a Bottoms Up analysis of companies that lead the economy and come and I'm sorry industries that lead the economy and industries that lag the economy and if the leading Industries are turning up or turning down that's a signal and that's worked beautifully historically the other signal which I have found quite prescient from markets is the bond market um unfortunately the last 10 or 11 years the bond market has not signaled anything because the central banks took it upon themselves to manipulate bond prices which to me is the 10-year treasury has sort of been the most important price in the world and they took that price out of the equations Sigler I remember last summer when certain forecasters had a different forecast of my own kept talking about well the bond market is saying this the bond market is saying that when the 10-year dropped all the way from 170 to 115 which by the way I did not anticipate but the bond market wasn't saying anything what was going on is central banks were buying trillions of dollars and manipulating the price of bonds so there was no signal I don't think you get that tainting if you look inside the stock market you could get it in the stock market as whole but if you do this approach where you look at Industries and you which lead which lag and you put the puzzle together it's been pressing over time and it's certainly allowed us to consistently the last 20 or 30 years outperform the FED in terms of economic forecasts I find that really interesting uh you know equities acting as kind of this synthesized predictors for certain industries and so say If you think about understanding what's going on in housing again the economy now plus kind of concretely what will you be looking at is a publicly traded REITs is it uh you know the stocks of construction companies what does that process look like for you well there there's you don't need to get real fancy here you can just do the home builders themselves and uh with suppose a good fundamentals they've all declined 50 from the high another industry that's been incredibly impression has been Trucking um and they're down 40 percent from the high despite the fact that they're all reporting record earnings um an industry that is not that much of a leader but it's more of a leader than a laggard is the retail industry and there's been a lot in the news lately whether it's Walmart or other companies um retail that one's a little tainted you just can't take these things blindly John that one's a little tainted now because in covid retail went to 100 of the wallet from about 85 percent because we weren't going outside and traveling going to football games but even taking that into account um retail appears to be much weaker than it should be given what the so-called GDP numbers are printing so right now there's a there's a signal albeit early that there may be trouble ahead yeah so you look at Trucking stocks being um uh you know down 50 and you say hmm okay this probably doesn't you know does not bode well for Trucking volumes it kind of has to be okay yeah and if it was just trucks fine but it's not just trucks it's housing it's retail it's all over the place and by the way you can't get too carried away and say that means we're out of a recession tomorrow morning a lot of these things have longer lead times like six months to a year yes one thing you're also getting on here kind of when you reference that you used to be able to look at the bond markers and kind of now you can't is it seems um very true that the investors who perform really well over uh multiple decades have to shift stylistically over time and become new kinds of investors I kind of love the stories of uh you know the value investors back in the day where if you look at what Ben Graham was actually doing you're hunting for companies where the uh you know Book value is greater than the market cap of the company it was a famous you know case of Northern pipeline where they're trading at 65 a share and they just had 95 a share of stuff and railroad bonds or whatever on their boundaries and he bought a bunch of their stock and then just yelled at them and complained until they finally dividended hours 95 a share of their assets but that doesn't work anymore obviously you know markets have gotten a lot more efficient and you can't just buy companies that own more assets than their market cap so value investing has to change and similarly you're describing here especially you know the relationships with bonds relationships with currencies have to chain them so I'm curious can you talk a bit more about how you stylistically have had to change the the tools in your toolkit that's really an excellent question and um it's very Pro it's it's right on point because when I got in the business um you could almost guarantee if a company reported lousy earnings opened down that day and closed up big that stock market was going to be higher six months from then and vice versa you could almost always guarantee if the economy looked great and Bonds were rallying that meant the economy was not going to look so great we used to call it price action versus news and it used to be an incredible indicator of security prices partly because of the efficiency partly because I think the growth of hedge funds we all learned these rules and partly because of Central Bank manipulation price versus news is a very weakened tool versus 20 years ago much to my chagrin because I always found it a great warning signal and now is a lot of times it may be warning of nothing or warning of something that doesn't exist so that's been one thing I've had to adopt to I mean frankly when I started in the business I'm showing my age here which was the mid 70s I started in equities and I also learned particularly in Bear markets that I had to morph into bonds into Commodities into foreign currencies things like tha of faiast models so how are you positioning the funds given that you know maybe you don't feel so good about going long equities but your normal bonds tool kiss is not working uh quite well is that you know is the golf thing top of mind because uh you know it's actually hard to you know to do too much uh or uh how you position things well currently I'm very challenged um we were lucky enough to have made some money uh up until now the last six or eight months primarily by having a a let me call it a matrix of short fixed income short stocks and not doing a whole lot in currencies and owning some of the key Commodities particularly oil and mistakenly uh gold but copper
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