저자: 스탠리드러켄밀러 · 외국인
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2022년 10월 인터뷰에서 드러켄밀러는 1999~2000년 닷컴 버블 당시 인터넷주 공매도 실패와 큰 손실, 이후 기술주 매도 후 2000년 3월 고점 직전 재매수 실패와 은퇴 경험을 회고한다. 현재 시장에 대해서는 경기 둔화 신호가 명확해지고 있으나 채권은 예전만큼 안전자산 역할을 하지 못한다고 진단한다. 공매도 포지션은 줄였고, 큰 반등 위험 때문에 적극적으로 베어 포지션을 잡지 않으며 '팻 피치(좋은 기회)'를 기다리는 중이라고 밝힌다. 달러에 대해서는 미국이 먼저 긴축을 시작해 약 14조 달러 자금이 유입됐지만, 앞으로 6개월 내 달러 숏 포지션을 잡을 가능성이 높다고 본다. 에너지는 ESG 전환으로 향후 5~10년 숏 우위 가능성을 언급했다. 암호화폐에 대해서는 나스닥과 상관관계가 강하며 블록체인은 5~10년 내 경제의 실질적 동력이 될 것으로 보지만 확신 있는 베팅은 피한다고 말한다. 비트코인은 인플레이션 강세장에서 금보다 유리하고, 디플레이션성 약세 국면(스태그플레이션 포함)에서는 금이 유리하다는 견해를 밝힌다. 금리와 주식에 대해서는 과거 역사적으로 유가·금리·달러 상승이 다음 해 기업이익 감소(약 35%)를 시사한다는 회귀 분석을 소개하며, 당시 2022년 가을 기준 주식 반등에 대한 경계감을 드러낸다. 예측 중 대상 자산 관련 명시적 1~3개월 방향 발언은 제한적이다. 달러는 6개월 내 숏 가능성, 에너지는 장기 숏 견해, 비트코인·금은 조건부 견해로 정리된다. 출연자 소속은 영상 제목·채널(Horizons Finance) 정보에 기반해 확인되지 않아 추정하지 않는다.
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yeah the the long version is very simple it actually started quite a while before I um I didn't do it in the beginning but sometime I believe in like March of 99 I got the brilliant idea to short like 10 internet stocks which were up like seven or eight folded Soros and I think I put 200 million into the quantum fund short and within about four weeks the 200 million investment was a 600 million dollar loss I didn't just mistake that I lost eight times I'm sorry four times um well three times my investment so because the 200 million went to 800 million then I covered it so I was very bruised I was down mid-teens I'd never been down double digits before and I was I was exhausted and then I kind of backed off and for a few months I realized Greenspan was doing this huge easing program because of the Asian financial crisis but there was no crisis in the United States but we're pumping all this money in and I could see the the tech Revolution and I said oh my god I've got to go along so one of the things I did was hired two two people in their 20s who were sort of Gunslingers because I knew gets back to Bitcoin now I knew the younger people knew the new companies like Veritas and verisign and that kind of stuff I didn't know how to spell them so we then I'm down like 16 or something we pivot into this stuff in the summer and by the end of the year we're up 42 percent net uh we have this massive year I go into George in January and I said this is crazy we're in a bubble I'm selling all the technology stocks so I sell them this is January and then the two Gunslingers are still there they have little small accounts so I can size them up when they're hot or cold per our conversation and then as you just said they're making like eight percent a day and it's driving me out of my mind because I'm out of the market so we're now getting into March and there's a little devil here going March of 2000 the little devil here is going do it do it and the little devil here is saying don't do it don't do it and I think I missed the top by an hour and you said I bought a few things I didn't buy a few things I put like I think 6 billion and which turned into a massive loss two or three billion um I knew like a five days after I did it but the whole exit it was messy so now I'm down like 18 again and I had just been down 18 percent the year before and I'm literally like an emotional mess and to your point I know I'm an emotional mess so I go into Soros and I say I'm quitting um I need a break I'm exhausted I write a letter to the cane investors I had I had you know two Farms going and I said I'm I'm going on sabbatical I might come back I might not right now I'm a mess if I want your money here's the number just call we'll send you all your money back I did cheat a little I said if you take your money out I might not let you back in but you're free to take it all out okay so I go to Africa with my kids I don't allow myself to see a TV or read a financial newspaper so I don't know where anything is so it's a true break which is something I'd advise young traders to do if you take a break take a break don't sit there and like trade your own account and mess around so I come back on Labor Day because my kids are going back to school and I'm sure my wife doesn't want me around the house so I open up a newspaper and I can't believe it the NASDAQ has recovered like 70 or 80 percent of their losses the s p is almost back to the high but oil is up interest rates are up and the dollar is up by the way that might sound a little familiar and this has always been terrible for corporate earnings looking forward so I mentioned this to my good friend Ed Hyman I go what's going on and uh I said oil is up interest rates are up and the Dollar's up why why is the market up in the meantime I'm calling all my ex clients who are small businessmen I didn't have big fancy clients and they're all telling their business is terrible okay so Ed sends back a regression thing two days later showing that if you have oil interest rates he plugged in the percentages and the dollar up this amount earnings the next year forward based on history go down 35 percent the returning's estimate of the Wall Street guys is up 18.
so I then got the idea and I'm down and one of my trading rules is you don't trade a lot when you're down but I've had a break my mind is fresh I just love this idea so I put 350 percent tenure equivalent of the fund into um treasuries betting that green Spano is a tightening director will reverse and we'll go into a recession and to make a long story short I make 40 in the fourth quarter even though I had given up on the year and decided I was finally going to have it down year that's the end of the story if a company reported lousy earnings opened down that day and closed up big that stock market was going to be higher six months from then and vice versa you could almost always guarantee if the economy looked great and Bonds were rallying that meant the economy was not going to look so great we used to call it price action versus news and it used to be an incredible indicator of security prices partly because of the efficiency partly because I think the growth of hedge funds we all learned these rules and partly because of Central Bank manipulation price versus news is a very weakened tool versus 20 years ago much to my chagrin because I always found it a great warning signal and now a lot of times it may be warning of nothing or warning of something that doesn't exist so that's been um one thing I've had to adopt to I mean frankly when I started in the business I'm showing my age here which was the mid 70s I started in equities I also learned particularly in Bear markets that I had to morph into bonds into Commodities into foreign currencies things like that a ake so for the golfers out there going into the situation we're describing I feel like I'm about to play a round of golf without a driver and without a 60 degree wedge because bonds which have been my go-to asset in terms of of a recessionary bear Market atmosphere they may work but there's a good reason to believe things may be different this time est models so how are you positioning the fund given that you know maybe you don't feel so good about going long equities but your normal Bond toolkit is not working uh quite well is that you know is the golf thing top of mind because uh you know it's actually hard to you know to do too much uh or uh how are you positioning things well currently I'm very challenged um we were lucky enough to have made some money uh up until now the last six or eight months primarily by having a a let me call it a matrix of short fixed income short stocks and not doing a whole lot in currencies and owning some of the key Commodities particularly oil and mistakenly uh gold but copper um things are a lot harder now because we're now getting definitive signals that the economy may be weakening particularly at the front end and while I'm not comfortable owning bonds I'm much less comfortable being short fixed income to the to the degree I was three to six months ago when it looked like a much better risk reward and even stocks so many companies have been derated by 60 or 70 percent and I've lived through enough bear markets that if you get aggressive uh in a bear Market on the short side you can get your head ripped off in rallies So currently I'm I'm coming in every day and I'm looking at my screen but I'm pretty much taking a break I'm waiting for a fat pitch I'm not shooting at any pins to use a golfing analogy my anticipation is I will be going back to the short Equity position at some point if the market affords me if not hopefully I'll just sidestep a decline that's not the worst thing in the world but the fixed income Market has become much more complicated and I'm lucky enough since I plan a lot of asset classes to have the luxury of not playing in one and I don't think I'm going to be playing much in that one going forward the currency Market is incredibly interesting to me I haven't been doing much there and I'm not currently positioned aggressively there but I will be surprised if sometime in the next six months I'm not short the dollar 14 trillion dollars has come in here because we were the first to tighten there's a story about American exceptionalism I'm not sure we're so exceptional anymore and if we are I'm not sure I'm excited about what we're exceptional in so foreign exchange looks interesting we still own energy and other Commodities um Ukraine sort of gave that trade an extended life although I must say the energy because of the transition to ESG we look to be short energy for five or ten years so that could last a while we talk about this stuff because we move between all these different asset classes and um one thing that makes me think of is um crypto obviously you've done kind of a little bit in crypto before I remember you saying that it's just hard to guess the size of position that is interesting to you in crypto one thing I was wondering are you seeing crypto start to affect other asset classes and other currencies um I don't know whether I'm seeing it but I expect it to you can't take you can't build over 2 trillion in wealth in purchasing power and then take a trillion of it out and not matter John I also have high frequency signals and there certainly seems to be a strong correlation between crypto and the NASDAQ I don't think it takes a genius to figure out why so I'm looking as an indicator that way crypto um you know everything that that Charlie Munger says about it I'm sympathetic too everything that says Bill Miller says about it and so it's sympathetic too so I think that's a movie that has yet to be played out and one that I don't want to bet on conviction but I will be very surprised if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy say five years from now to ten years from now and not a major disrupter with with companies that will um have been founded between now and then that'll do very well but there will also challenge things like our financial companies and do a lot of disruption so I find crypto interesting my 69th birthday is in a couple weeks I'm probably too old um to compete in an election with the young people in this space but I'm certainly monitoring it and Dee I was going to ask that do you think younger Stan would be kind of diving into crypto more energetic energetically I think a younger stand would be diving into everything more under generally than I'm talking to um it's age is a funny thing I don't um I feel my predictive power and forecasting power is as good as it's ever been the last three to five years I'm certainly not making 30 net returns per year like when I had clients so I think it's two things yes um I think younger people understand new asset classes better but B I'm just not playing anything as aggressively as I used to um that's interesting but uh one of their crypto related question as I think about um Bitcoin the closest analog is clearly gold and you know people talk about digital Gold by which I mean if you want to remove yourself from cash if you want to be independent from inflation your government in whichever country uh uh you're in traditionally gold will be the asset that you would kind of pull back into nowadays that can be Bitcoin and so you would expect their sickler cows you to be similar and yes Bitcoin is highly cyclical gold is counter cyclical historically why is that I'm not sure why other than NASDAQ type risk play takers are the ones that send to play in Bitcoin and curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want the world to fall apart playing gold but there's no question and this I've watched and it's going on long enough now that I believe it that if you believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward if it's in a bull face you want to own Bitcoin but if it's in a bear phase for other assets you want to own gold and I think I just articulated the reason but sometimes John I don't care um this is going long on enough that I'm starting to believe what I'm observing and for sure if I think we're going to have an inflationary bull market um I'd want to own Bitcoin more than gold and if I thought we're going to have a bear Market you know stagflation type thing I'd want to own gold doesn't mean I'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point and is that because of some fundamentals of the underlying assets or just based on what you've observed in their behaviors to date five percent what I've observed but I would also say it's the type of investor um over-the-counter um Fang type investors if they believe inflation and they tend to be younger they want to play Bitcoin uh old curmudgeons that secretly want the world to fall apart they don't own Bitcoin they own gold so but that's kind of cheating because
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