저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
요약 보기
드러켄밀러는 인플레이션이 5%를 넘으면 리세션 없이 내려온 적이 없다며 2023년 경기침체 가능성을 강하게 가정한다고 밝힌다. 다만 시기는 확신하지 못한다고 한다. 초과저축 1.5~2조 달러와 자산 버블, 우크라이나 사태, 중국 제로 코로나 정책을 근거로 경계감을 드러낸다. 연준 조치의 영향에 대해서도 열린 태도를 보인다. 암호화폐에 대해서는 블록체인이 5~10년 내 경제의 실질적 힘이 될 것으로 보며, 나스닥과의 높은 상관관계를 지표로 본다. 다만 베팅할 확신은 없다고 선을 긋는다. 금과 비트코인의 관계에 대해서는 무책임한 통화정책과 인플레이션이 예상되는 강세장에서는 비트코인이, 스태그플레이션 성격의 약세장에서는 금이 낫다고 본다. 이는 관찰에 기반한 가정이라고 설명한다. 금은 역사적으로 경기순응적이지 않은 경향이 있으나 그 이유는 확실치 않다고 말한다. 투자자 성향 차이(젊은 기술 투자자 대 비관론자)를 해석 요인으로 든다. 본인이 기술 투자자라면 블록체인의 잠재적 파괴력을 깊이 연구할 것이라고 말한다. 투자 원칙으로는 현재가 아니라 12~18개월 후의 세계를 상상해 주가를 판단하라고 강조한다. 2009년 금융위기 이후 30~40년간 큰 위기가 없을 것이라 여겼던 자신의 판단을 되돌아보며, 중앙은행의 지난 10여 년 정책에 대해 최악의 시나리오에도 열려 있어야 한다고 말한다. 모바일 투자 확산에 대해서는 강세장 천재들이 역풍을 등지고 서핑하는 것과 같다며 우려를 표한다. 집중투자 철학과 포지션 사이징의 중요성, 본인의 연승·연패 흐름을 인식하는 법을 설명한다.
다듬은 글
I think history is going to win that's once inflation gets about five percent it's never come down without a recession and I think a recession is in the cards I just don't know when we have about depending on who you listen to a trillion and a half to two trillion of excess savings now so it may take some time to work through that savings but given the extent of the asset bubble and the destruction in the markets give them what's going on in Ukraine giving zero covered policy in China I don't take a lot of comfort from that so I assume um and I'm pretty strongly assume we're going to have a recession sometime in 23.
I just don't know whether it's going to be in the early part or the later part and again um it's a guess it's not a fac the beaest models crypto obviously you've done kind of a little bit in crypto before I remember you saying this it's just Hearts guess the size of position that is interesting to you in crypto one thing I was wondering are you seeing crypto start to affect other asset classes and other currencies um I don't know whether I'm seeing it but I expect it to you can't take you can't build over 2 trillion in wealth in purchasing power and then take a trillion of it out and not matter John I also have high frequency um signals and there certainly seems to be a strong correlation between crypto and the NASDAQ I don't think it takes a genius to figure out why so I'm looking as an indicator that way crypto um you know everything that that Charlie Munger says about it I'm sympathetic too everything that says Bill Miller says about it and so it's sympathetic too so I think that's a movie that has yet to be played out and one that I don't want to bet on conviction but I will be very surprised if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy say five years from now to ten years from now and not a major disrupter with with companies that will um have been founded between now and then that'll do very well but that will also challenge things like our financial companies and do a lot of disruption so I find crypto interesting my 69th birthdays in a couple weeks I'm probably too old um to compete in an election with the young people in this space but I'm certainly monitoring it I was um bug is clearly gold and you people talk about digital Golds by which I mean if you want to remove yourself from cash if you want to be independent from inflation your government in whichever country uh uh you're in traditionally gold will be the asset that you would kind of pull back into nowadays that can be Bitcoin and so you would expect our sickler cows you to be similar and yes Bitcoin is highly cyclical gold is counter-cyclical historically why is that I'm not sure why other than NASDAQ type risk play takers are the ones that send to play in Bitcoin and curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want the world to fall apart playing gold but there's no question and this I've watched and it's gone on long enough now that I believe it that if you believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward if it's in a bull face you want to own Bitcoin but if it's in a bear phase for other assets you want to own gold and I think I just articulated the reason but sometimes John I don't care um this is going long on enough that I'm starting to believe what I'm observing and for sure if I think we're going to have an inflationary bull market um I'd want to own Bitcoin more than gold and if I thought we're going to have a bear Market you know stagflation type thing I'd want to own gold doesn't mean I'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point and is that because of some fundamentals of the underlying assets or just based on what you've observed in their behaviors to date 100 what I've observed but I would also say it's the type of investor um over-the-counter um Fang type investors if they believe inflation and they tend to be younger they want to play Bitcoin uh old curmudgeons that secretly want the world to fall apart they don't own Bitcoin they own gold so but that's kind of cheating because that's kind of a reason I've made up for what I've observed I think you gotta you gotta know your own biases if I was a tech investor um I would certainly be learning you know we had the internet wave we had the cloud wave Cloud doesn't look like it's over yet but I would certainly be Lo be looking into blockchain very deeply into the possible disruption it might take but I think fundamentals are fundamentals look when companies are losing money capacity is always going to shrink and their margin is going to look better in three years when companies are over earning their margins are going to come down in three years I think all that stuff will be out there I think the great thing about my original Mentor spiritus in Pittsburgh was he made me Focus on what moves the stock price like you can't just say Stan okay this is a great company and the earnings are great so tell me how people are going to think differently in 18 or 24 months about the situation than they're thinking now that would be my number one advice to the young people do not do not invest in the present the present it's not what moves stock prices change moves them and I want you to try and envision a different world in a year and a half from now and where these security prices would trade versus now giving the world you envisioned that would be my number one advice to a young person getting in the business this is my 45th consecutive year as the chief investment officer and in 45 years I've never seen a consolation while I was a practitioner or frankly studied one where there's no historical analog so right now I probably have more humility in terms of My Views going forward than I've had maybe ever but I would say if I have an objection out there in 2009 I made a statement inside the firm was well we won't have another financial crisis for 30 or 40 years because once you have one of these everyone learns from it and we get disciplined and it takes them that long to screw up again the last one we had was obviously 29.
I'm not so sure I buy into all this stuff about bank balance sheets and this and that what the central banks globally have done the last 10 or 11 years I'm not predicting this John but at least me open-minded to something really bad um so that's the guy on this shoulder we talked about earlier the other shoulder is saying this is an analysis harder than you've ever fished in 45 years so please be open-minded because Bitcoin more than gold and if I thought we're going to have a bear Market you know stagflation type thing I'd want to own gold doesn't mean I'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point and is that because of some fundamentals of the underlying assets or just based on what you've observed in their behaviors to date I present what I've observed but I would also say it's the type of investor um over-the-counter um Fang type investors if they believe inflation and they tend to be younger they want to play Bitcoin uh old curmudgeons that secretly want the world to fall apart they don't own Bitcoin they own gold so but that's kind of cheating because that's kind of a reason I've made up for what I've observed I think you gotta you gotta know your own biases um yes going back to how you work and you know kind of the young man's game and things like that um I talked to someone who worked for you who says maybe an underrated aspect of your performance historically is you just work way harder than everyone else and there's few people who have been in the market since the 70s working with your work ethic uh and you know across such a broad range of assets how how relevant do you think that is or how much truth do you ascribe to that I think it's very relevant um I was pretty lazy in college and I never considered myself a particularly hard worker but I'm so passionate about our business that it's almost like a compulsive Gambler that has a a way to channel his compose and the fact that every event in the world affects some security price somewhere and the fact that I'm so intellectually stimulated trying to imagine the world 12 to 18 months from now versus the way it looks in the present and security prices how they would reflect that I just find it so stimulating it makes everybody think I'm a hard worker because I'm attracted to the game so in this game I am a hard worker but I actually think there's a life lesson there I've seen young people who when they find their passion who had kind of looked like they were lazy or lost their way or weren't very driven become very driven I just happen to be passionate about this particular discipline so I don't know whether I have a hard work ethic but that that's the end result of my passion are are you then uh excited about the growth of mobile investing and you know approachable retail investing for kind of a younger crowd because it might pull more people into this or do you think it might get people in for the wrong reasons and it's a bit more of a you know blinking slot machine game the latter I mean given given what's going on the last 11 years with Central Bank policy and the breadth of the bubble I do fear for um you know one of the sayings I'm sure you've heard it but I probably heard the first week I was in the business 50 years ago it still applied bull market Geniuses um I think there's a lot of bull market Geniuses around and it's not that they love the game they love winning but they were surfing with a hurricane behind their back that was giving them these nice waves they they may become very discouraged so I don't Embrace I've heard a lot of people invasive fact that all these people are investing now and all these and how great it is I don't think it's so great if the story doesn't end well yeah and and certainly we may see an interesting scenario play out of the next year or two um go back to your style do you think I found very interesting uh in how you work is this uh you know your philosophy of put all your eggs in one basket and then watch this baskets very carefully and you've described uh how you just develop conviction three to four times a year and act based on that and I'm curious if you could talk a little bit more about that like the the spidey sense going off and you know you're clearly in low conviction time right now but I think that's just very stylistically interesting where you even know how to size up and down your trades yeah it's it's completely contrary to what they teach in business school which is if you're highly Diversified you have less risk than if you're highly concentrated um I don't believe that at all as an investor when I think most people get in the most trouble is when they have stale Longs or stale shorts when you've got 15 20 of your asset base or someone times in macro positions I'll have two or three hundred percent um believe me they're not getting stale and you have to have ruthless discipline and you're coming in every day just to quote Andy Grove you could not be more paranoid and you're constantly reevaluating I think it leads to an open mind so yeah I would also say people ask me what I learned from George Soros um I thought when I went there I was going to learn what made the Yen and the Deutsche Mark go up and down and that kind of thing no what I learned was um sizing is probably 70 to 80 percent of the equation it's not of whether you're right or wrong it's how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong I've also found as an investor I believe in streaks you see it in baseball you see and everything else I see it investing sometimes you're seeing the ball sometimes you're not one of my number one jobs is to know whether I'm hot or cold and when I'm hot I'm supposed to turn the dial way up not not say okay I'm up 40 this year let's go this will look good at the end of the year go take a break no you got to make hay while you're hot and then when you're cold the last thing you should do is try and make big bets to get back to even you should you should tone yourself down so believe it or not that's that's part of the all your eggs in one basket not only do I have to see the see the investment that really excites me I also have to see myself sort of being in a good in a good Trader trading rhythm interesting this notion of first off having hot and cold streaks because I think you know some people would take issues value people debate whether Hot Hands exist in basketball and all this sort of stuff but kind of believing in that but also being kind of self-aware to know that I am cold I'm gonna do trades but just small ones to you know keep myself from doing anything stupid and then as you say kind of when you're Haas uh really being able to kind of size with conviction based on that do you know when other people are hot by the way so people at the firm now at Duquesne do you know when to egg them on to size up their positions because you can tell they have it together eyesight's up their views and the answer is yes so the Dark Art of technical analysis um there are technicians out there they're all rational they all look a lot of history no one runs more hot and colder technicians one of your main jobs if you follow technicians is to know when they're hot and know when they're cold some of them that get so cold you can actually fade them and go the other way because they've got themselves all twisted up it's more fun to follow one who's hot and make money with them but yeah absolutely I see guys within my own firm analysts who recommend things and they go on streets too or they get an area and they they're really hot and my job as a trigger puller is to size them up
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