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마이클 burry의 2022년 4분기 13F 포트폴리오를 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 버리는 여전히 미국 주식시장이 고평가되어 있다고 보는 것으로 해석되며, 방어적 성향이 강하다. 버리의 매도 종목: 록히드마틴과 CVS를 전량 매도했고, 두 종목 모두 수익을 낸 것으로 설명된다. 록히드마틴은 2년치 수주잔고가 있어 매도 근거가 약했다는 평가다. 버리의 매수/보유 종목: 임팩스(IMPX)는 장부가 수준에서 매수한 것으로 보이며 20~30% 수익을 냈을 것으로 추정된다. 제너럴다이내믹스는 수주잔고 880억 달러로 경기방어주 성격이라고 설명된다. 브리스톨마이어스스퀴브는 현금흐름이 크고 필수재 성격이라 방어주로 평가된다. 피델리티내셔널파이낸셜(FNF): 진행자가 가장 주목하는 종목이다. 주택담보대출 재융자 수요 급증, 연금(annuity) 상품 수혜, 낮은 PER(약 5배)과 3.7% 배당을 근거로 가치 매력이 크다고 주장한다. GEO그룹과 코어시빅(CXW): 두 종목 모두 민간교도소 임대 모델이며 버리가 반복 매매했다. GEO는 장부가 대비 낮게 거래되고 있으나 정치적 리스크가 크다고 언급된다. 시장 전망: S&P500 PER은 역사적 평균 대비 2표준편차 위로 닷컴버블 이후 최고 수준이며, 진행자는 지수가 추가 하락 여지가 있다고 본다. 리스크: 금리 인상 기조, 정책 변화(민간교도소 규제), 테크 성장주 약세 지속 가능성이 언급된다. 출연자 전망: 진행자 본인은 S&P500이 아직 추가 하락할 여지가 있다고 보며, 버리가 경기침체 또는 시장 조정을 예상하고 있을 것이라고 추정한다.
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really good so i've been waiting for michael berry 13 f filing of q4 he did do a lot of sales but my personal favorite pick is his second one which is his fidelity national financial i'm gonna talk a little bit more about the stock but when i first looked at michael boye's portfolio on the things he saw the things he owned like russell meyers like you know fidelity like you know general dynamics like you know geo core civic all these kind of stocks i could tell that michael bury is still feeling that the sell-off in the stock market is not over he's not really finding much value now he was looking at value internationally he did own a lot of japanese stocks and stuff like that but based on this filing i cannot really tell if he still owns them or not because it hasn't been updated yet but i will keep you guys updated on it but i don't really blame michael berry for feeling the u.s stock market is still a bit overvalued i mean if you just look at the s p 500 p e ratio we are two standard deviation above historical average the last time it was that high it was in the dot-com bubble and that's as february 11 so despite all the sell-off especially in the nasdaq and the arc etfs and stuff so s p 500 still has a long ways to go down this is me basically judging off of michael burry's portfolio because he normally owns some big tech stock he owned google in the past he on facebook but now he owns none of that stuff so he's likely a little bit fearful so let's get started the first two he sold 100 percent of were the now and lockheed martin and there was a lot of jokes that michael bourie somewhat knew that russia is gonna attack ukraine or whatever and then lockheed martin is gonna rally now i don't think he really knew maybe he guessed it but the stock was underpriced after kind of fear that the u.s government is going to cut spending on those kind of stocks and stuff and they're going to get less revenue and i came up with my video and s this is not true they have two years of backlog lockheed martin and now even is still in good stock at a full p of 14 or just a basic p of 17 but he sold those two and he made pretty good money on them the other two he sold were a health care stock and then cvs cvs he made a pretty good killing on it i believe his average cost was like 75 and the stock went to like 110 115 but the problem was michael bury he's just always so early like imagine if he had kept his arc innovation puts how much would they be worse right now where is his tlt puss or all those bits that he actually sold he's just always too early and that's why most people kind of misunderstand him the other two stocks he always buy and sell from are core civic and geo and i don't know much about core civic but they are both the same business model they are actually in their own like private prisons and stuff and they lease them to the u.s government to the ice to a lot of those agencies and there was a lot of hate lately kind of around the you know private prisons and stuff although geo is not really in private privilege it works more into rehabilitation of people and i did the analysis on it a long time ago but essentially it's a whole deal with geo they have a lot of that right but they have a lot of free cash flow and as long as they can be rolling out that debt and they can continue selling their prisons i mean the stock has a lot of potential later but now geo is trading under book value book value on paper on their paper is around eight dollars a share now the stock is six dollars and 52 cents but i did do a deeper analysis and i dug into the numbers in my video which you could check out i looked at their 10k and then i looked at so how much was the presence valued and then i looked at how much they sold those prisons they were like 20 to 25 percent more so their book value is more around 10 to 11 a share but none of the less is a pretty risky investment they said a people five but that really tells you that michael bury is not really finding much value in the united states or in the stock market another one which he actually bought is impx now if you want to buy the stock i believe it's a little bit too late impx was the kind of expect backed by harley davidson and the stock i mean went down pretty much under nav the floor for those packs usually 10 it went down to the nine dollar range 9.75 i felt michael bori kind of felt it's a good asymmetrical return to buy it under spag value which was around ten dollars and then the stock showed up at one time to around ten dollars and eighteen and now shading back under ten but i believe michael bury sold he maybe made 20 to 30 percent profit which is really not bad at all with a stock like impx his third biggest position is actually gd general dynamics many of you are familiar with it it's actually a government contractor and had a pretty good performance over the past year now i don't really know if michael bury kept it or sold it if he did buy it maybe in in late september or even here around 189 now we're sitting at 212.
so he did make pretty good money if he did actually sell it but the main reason michael bourie i believe bought this stock is kind of a recession proof type stock if michael bury is expecting a recession or some kind of pullback in the market why because it has a pretty long backlog of 88 billion up 8.1 percent from a year ago same with lockheed martin which is a stock i own lockheed martin has two years of backlog which has pretty much guaranteed revenue and not only that u.s president biden also signed a contract to increase the uh this defense bill to 770 billion now that's around four to five percent more than the previous year which is also bullish for those stocks but now i can finally get to my second position which is the favorite one is fidelity national financial this is a stock it has been dropping down off a cliff around 55 dollars for no kind of justification whatsoever now fidelity national financial okay it kind of does three things mainly the first one is in the title insurance business it kind of provides titles and stuff so it's really needed in time of real estate transaction if you want to buy a house sell a house it does kind of origination it helps out with the closing with escrow all that kind of stuff fidelity does it but there's something else a fidelity does and it's mortgage refinancing and now we are in epic fear in terms of rate hikes from the fed and interest rates rising in general so people are gonna go panic kind of trying to go and refinance at the lowest rate possible before interstate skyrocket whether they do skyrocket or not but this is the fear the public have and they are rushing to agencies like fidelity national financials which has around 32.7 percent market share in this type of industry to kind of refinance their loans on their homes before it's too late and interest interchanges go up it's like a panic cell which can help fidelity something else fidelity national financial also does it provides annuities and if you're not familiar with unnoticed they actually perform better than bonds in those times of higher interest rates so what berry is basically betting on is people are gonna try to russia and get out of bonds as become more and more worthless if they don't want to go into overpriced stocks they may want to go get into annuities which fidelity national financials accuracy provides and it's a pretty genius and this is kind of a quick look i said when interest rate rise the value of bonds decline because annuities aren't priced daily in an open market as are bonds they are much better than bonds at holding and carrying their value they also generate a more predictable cash flow and some annuities also rise go up and down actually with interest rates so you're not getting clobbered as people trying to get rush and get out of the bond market they may jump into annuities based on michael bray's perspective and the stock is not really expensive at all it's trading at a pe or five a forward p of like 4.9 with a 3.7 percent dividend you may not find that much kind of stock especially in the united states and stuff so and michael bori is a value investor this is actually perfectly fits michael boris portfolio and this is a stock personally i'm gonna look more into and maybe do a full analysis on the stock now the last one he actually bought his his biggest position was bristol meyer square b-m-y the main reason the stock went down in the first place was it has a lot of issues but first of all it really was in terms of the drug that is expiring it had some drugs expiring just like you remember abby and humerus they had their humera drug expiring but these kind of pharmaceutical companies they have other type of drugs that can have even more success than the one that's expiring but always the markets kind of sells the stock a lot whenever there's a drug expiring in this type of company but essentially the stock did recover i'm not sure if michael bourne is sold or not but he did pretty pretty nice gains especially if he bought in the bottom around the you know 54 dollar range but essentially this stock is also recession proof like michael burr is trying to get like i'm personally trying to get it has massive cash flow it's a need based type business but essentially i believe michael worry is still bearish on the market he is of course i'm 100 sure he's holding some cash but maybe not in cash maybe in something that holds him interest and stuff as he's not a person that really likes losing money to inflation and other type of things but this was my thoughts on him i was kind of upset because he didn't go back in discovery and he didn't even buy viacom cbs with these two stocks are pretty kind of deep value investor type stocks but he didn't buy in you know but that's michael bury you know we always understand him whenever it's too late because he's always so early on everything if you enjoyed this type of video please press like and maybe consider subscribing i hope to see you in another one
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