저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
유튜버는 레이 달리오의 부채위기 경고가 과거에도 빗나갔다며 대폭락론을 부정한다. 일본 부채 250%도 버티는 만큼 미국 부채 122%는 당장 위기가 아니며, Fed와 정부의 대응 여력이 충분하다고 본다. 근원 PCE는 AI 투자, 관세, 에너지 충격이 일시적이어서 2027년쯤 2%대로 복귀할 것이며, 실질금리 1.2%와 10년물 6~6.5% 상단 제한을 근거로 금리 상승 여력이 제한적이라고 본다. 시장은 실적 추정치 상향에 기대는데 그중 상당 부분이 비지속적이라 2027년 중반 이후 지속성이 떨어진다고 본다. 다만 8~10% 조정은 유력하며 중간선거 이후 나타날 수 있고, 대폭락은 예상하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
I can't even open my YouTube account without seeing a video on some kind of a market crash, generational crash, not even 10%. They're talking about 50, 60% crash, and some people are scared. I'm I'm getting scared as well from all the negative sentiment. You even have Ray Dalio saying we are 36 months away from a debt crisis, even though Ray Dalio has been saying it for like 50 years.
He said it in 2009 that we're going to have a long, painful depression. That didn't happen. And in a 2018 interview, he said we have two more years for a debt crisis, and that also didn't happen. So, a lot of people are getting scared. I'm getting questions, what do you think is going to happen? The 10-year yield and bond yields are rising.
Everyone and their mother and their grandmothers are talking about bonds and they're bearish on bonds. I mean, bonds weren't really talked about a lot a few months ago or a year ago, but right now everyone is a bond expert, everyone is bearish on bonds. And that's making me, you know, want to take the other side of that.
Because the market doesn't really crash when you have all those videos every day talking about a major crash or some kind of a major debt crisis. So, I'm going to talk about my opinion in today's video. And the main thesis of Ray Dalio is that we're having higher and higher interest rates. And as we have higher interest rates, the government spending on interest rate is increasing a lot as a percentage of overall spending.
And that could cause interest rates to go up even more, and that could cause the government to pay more in interest, and eventually it's not sustainable, and we could have some kind of a major debt crisis. Now, what a lot of people are missing is that this is not something new. Like, it's not like we've never been here before.
Right now, the interest expense as a percentage of total expenses for the government as a percentage of spending is about 13.8% or you could say 15%. We were also at 15% in 1996, and as said it was unsustainable, yet the expense went down and we did not have a debt crisis. In fact, we had an amazing boom in the stock market and and even in the bond market and we had a pretty amazing time.
And I think it could potentially happen again. Now, if you look at something that I believe is very important, and this is the public debt as a percentage of GDP, but we're right now sitting at 122%. And people say 122% debt to GDP is unsustainable. It's not good and we're going to have a crisis tomorrow.
But I always say don't underestimate the government's tools to kick the can down the road. Like if you look at Japan, Japan is sitting at 250% guys. And they have worse demographics than we have and not as much economic growth. They're sitting at 250%. So the government can still buy and the Fed they can still buy a lot of those bonds and take interest rates down.
They could do it. The Treasury can't do it because they don't have They have a trillion dollars. The Fed has unlimited liquidity and they can potentially do it, especially if inflation comes down. So I would not say that we're going to have a debt crisis tomorrow just because the debt to GDP is 125 or 124%.
Now in terms of inflation itself, it's very high. It's unsustainable. It's sitting at 3%. The target is the magical 2%. They haven't revised it, but their magic target is about 2% and of course that's much higher than the historical average. Now, I found a very interesting graph that's showing what's actually contributing to the rise in core PCE.
And this is this is again a really really amazing chart that I found on X. And if you look here at 2026, most of the inflation is being contributed by the AI build-out. It's making things more expensive, electricity a little bit more expensive. You could say things that are on memory prices and other things.
That's eventually going to slow down a little bit. That's contributing to a lot of the increase in core PCE. Then you have the tariff pass-through, which is making its way and it should end by 2027. Then you have the supply energy shock, which is mainly due to higher shipping prices, higher diesel prices.
That should also potentially end in 2027. So a lot of the stuff that's contributing to above 2% inflation is temporary. This war is not permanent, it's temporary. Could end this year, could end next year, but it's eventually going to end. And once it ends in my opinion, core PCE will go right back to 2%, 2 and 1/2%.
It doesn't mean inflation is at 2%, but the Fed believes in core PCE and the market believes in the Fed. So all that matters is this core PCE getting to 2% and it could happen as soon as 2027. Now some things that I want to highlight, which is really important, is the real yield. So the real yield in the market is the 10-year minus the headline CPI.
So the 10-year is about 5.2%. Headline CPI is 3.7%. If you take the real yield right now, it's about 1.2%. So if you're investing in government bonds right now, after inflation your return is 1.2%. This is really not too high in my opinion and it could eventually go higher. Now on average the real yield is about 2 to 2 and 1/2%.
Now the real yield could get there if the treasuries, or I should say the 10-year, either goes to 6 and 1/2% or if the PCE drops down to 2% next year. So that would tell me that the upside on yields over here, I think is limited. I don't think we're going to see more than 6.2 to 6 and 1/2% at 2% real yield, I I a lot of buyers would most likely be stepping in.
The only time we went above two two and a half percent on a real yield was like back in 1980s where we had like an 8% real yield and we had much higher inflation. We're nowhere close to the 1980s. So, I think at a two two and a half percent real yield, uh a lot of buyers would likely step in and we're not too far from this target, which tells me the upside on yield is limited.
Now, something else that's telling me that is a lot of investors are buying call options on TLT and they're betting that the long-term bonds yields will start to come down. And I personally would not be surprised if that happens because a lot of people are so bearish on bonds. The sentiment is so bad that I had I haven't seen this in in a very long time in a lot of stocks.
Maybe it's close to what I saw in 2022 and 2020 in a lot of stocks. So, the sentiment is so bad, being short bonds is an obvious trade. What's obvious doesn't remain obvious. Everyone can't be right. So, to me that looks like a classic setup where maybe 6% 6 and a half percent and then the whole thing is going to reverse down.
Interest expense will come down and Ray Dalio will no longer be calling for a debt crisis. So, that's my opinion on the whole kind of debt crisis call. Now, in terms of Open AI, a lot of people were surprised that they missed their target by about 20 billion dollars. And I'm surprised that everyone was surprised about this because this is what a lot of those private companies do.
They issue much higher targets that they can't achieve for them to raise money at much higher valuations. This is why the IPOs are such terrible investments because they go public on much higher expectations that they can't actually achieve, but they do it to raise as much money as possible. So, Open AI is not the only one and Tropic's doing it as well.
Space X is doing it. All those companies have done this. So, it's really surprising to me that investors are shocked that they missed by 20 billion and I think they'll keep on missing until they go public because they want to put in high targets for them to reach very high valuations and be able to raise as much money as possible.
Now, in terms of this bull market, it has lasted longer than a lot of other bull markets you could say. This is red dots on previous bull markets. This one has lasted for a while. I mean, there's nothing that could say that has to stop here. A lot of them have went for like 3,200 days. This one is about 1,200 days.
So, it could even go for another like 2,000 days or something crazy. [snorts] But, you know, it's kind of looking like it's on par where a lot of other bull markets have recently ended. Now, if you look at what's driving this market is mainly earnings estimates. Earnings estimate, especially for the S&P 500, have been getting revised like crazy, like much higher revisions.
Now, the main driver of those revisions is things that aren't actually sustainable. And this is why I told you guys I would not be surprised if we have a pullback in the market in the near term, but I'm not expecting a generational crash or a 50% crash or anything of the sort. Now, if you look at where most of the revisions are coming in and where the growth is coming in, energy is at 109%.
That's not sustainable. Information technology is 64%. You could say that's sustainable, but a lot of it is memory. A lot of it is gains on OpenAI and Anthropic stakes by Google and Amazon and those names. So, that's not too sustainable. Communication services is somewhat sustainable. Materials is not sustainable.
A lot of it is commodity-based. Industrials is a little bit sustainable. Real estate is 15%. So, the other ones are sustainable, but a lot of the actual growth isn't sustainable beyond mid-2027 in my opinion. And we can really see it from the massive divergence between the equal weight to actual S&P market cap.
Equal weight is pretty much every single company equal to a certain percentage, and they're all equal. But the S&P 500 is like 40% in the top 10 names or or something crazy. And equal weight has been underperforming because most of the earnings growth are coming in from those sectors like the Magnificent and other ones that are getting a lot of those gains based on factors that aren't sustainable, such as the equity gains of Open AI and Anthropic.
But I always say that we shouldn't really bet against the Fed, and we shouldn't really be betting against this administration. They're willing to do whatever it takes to get the market going into the midterms. They even lifted the sanction on Russian diesel imports until April of 2027. So they're just willing to do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy into the midterm.
If we look at the chart on the QQQ, I'm a big fan of looking at stocks making a new high whenever the market made a new high. Here you can see them in general has likely continued to make new highs. It happened here. We broke the initial high, and then we made a new high over here, and then the market went higher.
Same thing here. We went even higher, and the same thing over here went even higher. And we almost did it again. I mean, it's it's really close. We need to sustainably go above this level. But if this high holds itself, and we go a little bit higher, then the market is likely going to go a little bit higher from here.
So I don't believe we're going to have a debt crisis anytime soon. I think it will likely last much longer than a lot of people are expecting. I think the government still has a lot of tools for them to fight against the debt crisis uh happening anytime soon. Inflation should come down a little bit more next year, but in terms of yields, they're still a little bit high relative to where the S&P 500 should be, taking into consideration that a lot of the earnings are driven by temporary events and not permanent events.
So, I would not be surprised if we still have an 8 to 10% pullback, maybe after the midterms. But, I'm not really calling for a generational crash that's going to wipe out a generation and teach people something. I don't think that's going to happen, maybe not under this administration. But, an 8 to 10% pullback is likely, and it happens once a year.
So, I'm not a genius for calling for a 10% pullback cuz it's been happening every single year. And that's my opinion on the market and the debt crisis and all these things. I [clears throat] subscribing. So, I'll talk to you in another video.
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