저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
출연자는 넷플릭스가 PER 약 21배로 저평가됐다고 보고 5년 목표가 151달러(연 15% 수익률)를 제시. 1분기 EPS 0.80달러로 컨센서스(0.79달러) 상회, 매출은 소폭 하회. 광고매출 30억 달러 목표로 급성장. 다만 시청 지표 보고 주기를 반년에서 연간으로 줄인 점과 가격 인상 의존 성장은 우려. 스포츠 라이브 이벤트로 이탈률(churn) 방어 중이며 자사주 매입은 지속. 본인은 '회피' 카테고리에 두고 있고 선호 종목은 아니라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Legendary investor Bill Aman is back in Netflix stock. I was very very surprised to see that he bought Visa, he bought Massuk, Netflix, S&P Global, ICE and Alcon. My favorite two are Netflix and S&P Global at current valuations. Now, Bill Aman used to own Netflix and he pretty much sold the bottom of the stock.
It was a very popular trade and he lost $400 million and you really have to respect the fact that he's buying it again without any feelings or attachments or anything that has related to him losing money. Like a lot of times in the market we lose money on a stock or a stock goes down or we start hating on it and and we develop all kind of feelings around a stock but a lot of the best investors they don't have any emotional attachment to their stocks and Warren Buffett says you have all kind of feelings about a stock but the stock has no feelings for you.
The stock doesn't even know your name doesn't even know you exist. So I think this is an amazing example where he doesn't really care about the past. He's focused on the present and he's focused on the future. Now, Netflix hasn't been doing well recently. The stock is down 40% over the last year. I've been making bearish videos on Netflix $100 a share.
But over the last three weeks, I did a video. I said Netflix stock is finally a buy because I think Netflix at the current valuations of about 21 times forwards is very cheap. The stock used to trade at 40 45 times which I saw was ridiculous but at the current valuation Netflix is offering a lot of value.
Now in terms of the last report the company beat on earnings per share 80 cents versus 79 cents expected. They also beat no they pretty much missed on revenue actually but but it wasn't a lot. They barely missed on revenue. It wasn't anything too crazy. The company's ad business has been booming like never before.
They expect to double the ad business year-over-year to $3 billion, which is absolutely amazing for a company like Netflix. Now, if you look at the income statement, quarteron quarter, the picture looks very ugly. You look at the net income as an example, net income has declined from 5.2 billion to about $3.4 billion.
But this is mainly a you could say misunderstanding by the market because the net interest income and other income was like $2.8 billion in March and in June it was only 51. And the reason for that is they got the breakup fee from WBD last quarter which inflated interest and other income and they didn't have it this quarter.
So quarter on quarter the picture looked ugly but it wasn't actually ugly. It was a great quarter from Netflix. Now, something that I didn't like in the report is the fact that Netflix is cutting back on the frequency of the what we watched report. This is a report that give you some kind of an idea on Netflix engagement.
They publish it every six months. Now, they're going to publish it once a year. And this is another move from Netflix to try to, you could say, hide total subscribers growth, hide a lot of those interaction metrics for people just to focus on prices. And they said it themselves. They said the goal of doing this is to keep the focus on financial metrics like revenues and operating profits.
Now, that really works well for the company because the company has been raising prices a lot. I don't have the latest chart, but as of 2024, the company has raised prices from like $12 to $23 and it's been raising prices all over. So, a lot of the growth of the company recently has likely been coming from raising prices, but we don't know that for a fact because the company is not publishing its total subscribers growth.
And the reason why Netflix has stopped doing it is because they had a massive uh churn rate. You could look at this data. This is the most we had in terms of a market share on TV. Uh YouTube has been killing it from 8% market share in 2023 to 13%. WBD was like 1%. Netflix was 7% in 2023. In late 2025, it was about 8%.
It has experienced a high churn rate because a lot of people they go on Netflix to watch a show, whatever show it is, once the show is done, they cancel their subscription. So, Netflix came up with something that's very smart in my opinion to help with retention. And this is called Netflix Sports. So they started hosting a lot of live events and other events on Netflix.
So if you sign up to watch some kind of a show and next week you have a boxing match, you're like, "Okay, I'm not going to cancel because next week there's a boxing match and the week after there's some WWE game and the week after there's something else that you want to watch." So that was a smart idea.
It cost them a little bit of money to get all those things on the platform, but I think it's going to pay off long term because the company is going to have a lower ch. But I still have some concerns on Netflix trying to hide a lot of those uh performance metrics for for people to focus on the numbers and a lot of the numbers has likely been driven by uh raising prices which may not be too sustainable uh over the long term.
Now the company has been deploying cash and doing buybacks. They've been doing a little bit of buybacks every quarter. It reacelerated a little bit last quarter. They they bought back I think like 30 million shares total. Uh that was not bad at all. and they don't have a dividends. They keep doing buybacks, which is actually a a something good from Netflix.
Now, for my valuation model on Netflix, I'm taking the current expected earnings per share of 359, which I believe they will likely hit it this year. It should be an easy target for Netflix. And from then, I'm expecting a 15% earnings per share growth between 2026 to pretty much 201, which is about the next five years, about 15% a year.
I think this is achievable. Netflix has been growing revenue 17% 13% last year, expected 15% this year and the analysts are expecting a deceleration from 15% to 11% and 10%. I believe this is possible and it could decelerate to 10 or 11%. But Netflix does some buybacks and they also have been expanding margins over the long term and AI could potentially help expand their margins.
So earnings per share will likely grow faster than revenues. So if revenues are growing 10, 11, 12%. I think they should be able to hit 15% earnings per share growth for Netflix. And by the way, I'm using fiscal.ai to come up with all those charts if you want to try it out. They give you 15% off if you want to check out my link in the description.
By using all those metrics, trailing P is 21 times. I'm using 21 times earnings. All in all, I'm getting about a $151 target per share over the next five years, which is about a 15% annual return or a double for the next 5 years to buy Netflix today. I think this is an amazing upside for this company and that's using 21 times earnings.
Now, if you look at this chart, Netflix used to trade at 30 times, 45 40 50 times. I don't think it's going to get back to 40 or 50 times, but it could realistically get back to 25 times earnings. Now, if it does get back to 25 times earnings, in this case, you could get almost a 20% annual return with about 144% on the upside with an amazing company like Netflix over the next 5 years.
So, I think Netflix at this price is undervalued for the business 100%. 95 was too much at this valuation. I think it's undervalued. I did say before that I'm putting it in the avoid category, but it doesn't mean that the stock is not a buy. It's just that for me personally, I prefer stocks that have a more, you could say, recession resistant business model, like something that people can't live without, something that people really need and not just want.
Now, some people cannot live without Netflix. But if Netflix raises prices enough, maybe they will look for different alternatives, especially in the age of AI. I think Amazon Prime Video will be doing some things in the future and other competitors will be doing things in the future. If the cost of content goes down, you're gonna have more competition.
So, I like Netflix as a long-term investment. The stock is undervalued. But for me personally, I've just been focused on different opportunities. So, that's my opinion on Netflix.
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