저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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레이 달리오는 현재 미국 경제가 1937년 주식시장 폭락 직전과 유사하다고 주장한다. 유사점: 금리가 0%에 가까운 수준까지 내려갔고, 자산 불평등(상위 0.1%가 하위 90%와 비슷한 자산 보유)이 역사적으로 높은 수준이며, 포퓰리즘과 정치적 양극화가 확산되고 있다. 거시 구조: 장기 부채 사이클 후반부에 있어 금리 인하나 양적완화로 경기를 부양할 여지가 제한적이다. 현재 금리는 2% 미만이며 4~5% 수준까지 올려야 경기 완충 여력이 생긴다고 본다. 지정학: 중국의 부상이 과거 독일·일본의 부상처럼 충돌을 낳을 수 있으며, 역사적으로 강대국 교체기 16건 중 12건이 실제 전쟁으로 이어졌다고 언급한다. 경기 침체 전망: 유럽(특히 ECB의 정책과 이탈리아 등의 부실 신용)이 침체 위험이 크며, 미국도 외부 충격에 취약하다고 본다. 부정적 금리가 미국에 도입될 가능성은 낮기를 바란다고 밝힌다. 대응 전략: 포트폴리오의 5~10%를 금에 배분할 것을 권한다. 은은 침체기 성과가 나빠 추천하지 않는다. 고배당 현금흐름 주식과 부동산도 침체기에 견딜 수 있다고 본다. 비트코인은 디지털 금으로 유동성이 높아 활용 가능하다고 언급한다. 전반적으로 장기 구조적 위험을 강조하는 비관적 견해이며, 구체적 가격 목표나 단기 기간은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hey you what's going on guys Ray Dalio is one of the most successful investors and the CEO of the biggest hedge fund Bridgewater associates recently he was talking about the current state of our economy and comparing it to the late nineteen thirties when stock market dropped more than sixty percent in this video we will take a closer look at the similarities between the current state of our economy and late nineteen thirties economy also ray will explain how to prepare for the recession before is too late on the other hand it's very much like the 30s in that in 1929 32 like 2008 we had a debt crisis took your interest rates to zero both of those times when interest rates hit zero you don't have the same kind of monetary policy so they print money they buy financial assets in both cases they did that caused an economic rebound in both of those cases and it caused the stock market to rise a lot in those particular cases and at the same time it did not resolve the wealth differences so that today the top one-tenth of 1% of the population has a net worth that is equal to the bottom 90% combined okay the wealth gap is the largest wealth gap that there has been since the nineteen thirty five to forty period and so while we have good conditions here for the bottom sixty percent of the population we have bad conditions so the average averages don't convey what the picture is this because of this disparity Great Depression at nineteen thirties had some major similarities to the housing bubble and global financial crisis of 2008 before nineteen thirty stark market skyrocketed as well parabolic for the number of years this is when interest rates were close to historical average of five percent after that bubble burst fat cut interest rates almost to zero percent just like in 2008 after housing bubble burst fat also cut interest rates from 5% to zero percent by current interest rate solo it drastically reduces borrowing power and therefore people can borrow money cheaply and build more businesses consume more and other the result stimulates economic growth in 1930s when S&P 500 searched to $30 within few years shortly it dropped heavily back to $5 within only two years stock market lost eighty-five percent of its value people were depressed and devastated years later stock market slightly recovered and they're also $18 and this was the peak of 1937 this is the point where Ray Dalio draws parallels to today's market conditions shortly stock market dropped again to $1.00 lost more than 50% of its value interest rates dropped to 0% and wealth inequality between 0.1% of the wealthy people in the United States and 90% of the ordinary people was at new all-time high during that time interest rates remain low for more than a decade just like in the current state of our economy interest rates are suppressed for more than a decade and just like in 1937 wealth inequality converge again right now 0.1% of the richest people in the United States own as much asset as 90 percent owned by the lower and middle class of people it took nearly 13 years to recover after the stock market dropped at 1937 and it also took 25 years to recover after the stock market dropped at 1930s other similarities as Ray Dalio describes that we are currently at the late stage of the long cycle and we still have a very difficult position which means that if economics turns down tomorrow there is not much fat can do to stimulate another economic growth you may ask yourself why because interest rates right now are below 2% and fat continues to print money we need to raise interest rates to at least four to five percent in order to have some economic steam when economy goes south we currently don't have that another similarities we currently have arising power in the form of China just like we had in nineteen forties the rising power of the form of Italy Japan and Germany let's see what trade dolly has to say about this potential conflict most the most recent period that's analogous of this is is the late 30s let's say if you take 1937 so why do I say that I'd say we're well along in the business cycle the short-term debt cycle we're in the seventh or eighth inning of that central banks are tightening monetary policy that's where we are in that cycle similar to then when we have because of the printing of money and because technologies and other reasons we have a greater amount of polarity political polarity I think this is an important important issue and that political polarity causes populism around the world in other words a strong individual to come in get control of that situation while they're having that type of polarity so the word populism for example in developed countries was not widely used until you go back to the 30s until more recently now its course common common and so we amor also late in the longer term debt cycle meaning if you were to turn down if the economy was to turn down the ability to deal with that with lowering interest rates is very limited and the ability to deal with that with quantitative easing is very limited for a variety of reasons so it's very much like the late 30s you could you can't find a time that in which both of those circumstances exist populism together with that differences wealth gaps and so on and then also we have a situation which is quite similar I think in we have rising a rising power in the form of China let's talk about that because in the 30s you had Italy in Japan and Germany rising to challenge the existing powers how parallel is a growing China today to that to that era if you study history I made a point now to study history over the last 500 years very very carefully what you see is that in the last 500 years there have been 16 times where a great power comes to challenge and existing power rising power so like you say in Germany in within Europe or Japan within Asia that was the nature of of that beast that means that there's certainly rivalry so with a trade war a comparable power it creates an issue so at 16 previous examples of a rising power 12 of which led to actual shooting Wars so we're gonna get into a shooting war but I am saying that the history has shown that when you have wars after a war you have a dominant power and you have periods of peace because you have a dominant power after World War 2 the United States was powerful both economically and also it had a monopoly on nuclear power and so as a result of that power the you know the United Nations is in New York the World Bank and the IMF are in Washington DC because it determined that and in history then when you have the rising power to challenge the existing power you have elements of conflict I'm saying I don't want to overdo this but I am saying that we are entering an era in which anybody reads history and policymakers around the world and recognize this that this issue with China rising means that there are naturally going to be conflicts and how do you resolve conflicts in the world market you don't go to a court system there's not a rule of law in the world that becomes dominant so there is more of a rule of power and then and that's dynamic so all I'm saying is if I was to pick you ask me when I was most analogous and I would say that the 1930s where you take that period the late 1930s is an analogous period if you were to say cause-effect relationships because how much power do we have in terms of monetary policy how much populism do we have analogous these are important things and then also you know where are we in the economic cycle our asset price is priced and so on so it looks at now with the most analogous period you can go back to periods and other periods in history and you can find also other analogous types of periods so what can we expect now are we going into recession fat trapped interested again 21.8% and continues to print US dollar even though fat insists that is not QE aka quantitative easing they're just buying government bonds and injecting more currency into circulation so how is that not QE Europe is already possibly in the recession with negative interest rates let's see what is recession and negative interest rates mean so let's define a recession the official designation of a recession comes from a place called the National Bureau of Economic Research it defines a recession as the period between a peak and a trough of economic activity the organization doesn't give a set definition of economic activity but looks to indicators like domestic production employment and retail sales we do have business cycles God hasn't conquered the business cycle President Trump has conquered the business cycle and it's hard for the Fed to conquer a business cycle but they can at least try to smooth it out as they go through time there are some other things outside of the country that could come to infect us I'm especially worried about Europe I think the European Central Bank has conducted a policy that has hidden some really bad credits not just in Italy but elsewhere if I come to you and say I'm gonna lend you money and by the way I'm gonna pay you to take it you're gonna make mistakes you're gonna stretch out on your risk vector and you're going to make some bad decisions that's human nature it's not quantifiable it's just human nature it's a human nature to do stupid stuff but money is accessible cheaply and easily well negative interest rates did not hit United States at least not yet and I really really hope it won't happen but let's see what Ray Dalio thinks what will happen where the next recession comes by now the question is how to position yourself if the recession hits or how to even profit if recession won't come anytime soon this is Ray Dalio best asset class that can perform at any time it performs especially very well when there is a blood on the street you recommend that most portfolios should contain some gold well of course why a lot of people think it's not of course in fact it doesn't make sense well first of all to structure a portfolio the best way to structure a portfolio is is to have the right kind of balance in your portfolio so and some amount of gold gold service of purpose it is first of all a diversifier against other assets you know we have this risk-on risk-off thing we have we also have a monetary system we have a the Brentwood's monetary system began after World War two and it had the dollar as the world's reserve currency there's a risk there there's a lot of dollar denominated debt and so on if somebody did felt that they didn't want to hold that and so on you could have exposures to that so it's a diversifying asset in that is sensible and and you know that's the main reason to have gold in the portfolio five to ten percent I think gold is a great way to diversified your portfolio I will not recommend silver that much a silver has a poor track record in recessions Alex silver gold performs very well when economy goes south every can probably tell by this chart also high-yield cashflow stocks and real estate can perform as well as you will receive monthly dividends Bitcoin can probably perform well as well as it is a digital gold why Bitcoin because unlike gold is very liquid people can quickly sell those bubbly tech stocks and convert dollars into Bitcoin buying physical gold isn't that easy let me know what guys think about $3 and his comparis
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