저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체는 피하기 어렵고 시장 사이클은 인간 심리(탐욕·공포)에서 비롯되므로 계속 반복된다. [경기 전망] 단기 경기예측은 어렵지만 채권시장이 1년 내 경기침체 가능성을 반영 중이다. 중국 둔화, 유럽 침체 가능성, 미국 제조업 부진 등 복합 요인이 존재한다. [사이클 논리] 시장 사이클은 인간 감정에서 나오며 낙관·탐욕·환상이 추세선 위로 과도하게 벗어났다가 조정으로 되돌아간다. 장기 상승 추세와 달리 실제 연 수익률은 8~12% 범위에 거의 머물지 않는다. [과거 사례] 2000년 닷컴 버블: S&P500이 5년간 약 200% 상승 후 2년 내 50% 폭락. 2008년 금융위기: 서브프라임 모기지 확산 후 붕괴, 연준이 금리를 0%까지 인하해 새 사이클 시작. [현 상황] 현재 장기 확장기는 10년 이상 지속 중이며 S&P500은 약 3000 수준이다. 금리가 낮아 연준의 정책 여력이 제한적이고, 정책 실패 시 큰 충격이 올 수 있다는 우려를 제시했다. [연준 정책] 연준이 경기 조절을 영구히 막을 수는 없으며, 침체를 억제할수록 이후 충격이 더 커질 수 있다고 본다(산불 관리 비유). [투자 전략] 중기(2~5년) 관점에서 공격적 투자와 방어적 투자 중 무엇을 택할지가 핵심이다. 현 시점에서는 기회 상실 위험보다 손실 회피를 약간 더 중시해야 한다고 권고한다. [군중 심리] 전문 투자자들의 경고가 계속 나오지만 개인과 일부 전문가는 하락기에 매수하려 하고, 손실 회피 심리 때문에 위기가 닥친 뒤에야 빠져나오는 경향이 있다. [리스크] 정책 변화, 과잉 레버리지, 금리 상승 가능성이 주요 리스크다. [출연자 전망] 1~3개월 단기 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없고, 장기적으로 침체와 조정이 불가피하다는 견해다.
다듬은 글
one of these days the economy will slow down and I believe we will have a recession I don't believe the Fed is going to hold it off forever we'll have a slowdown and it's natural and when we do the markets will go down defaults will go up bankruptcies will go up people will panic the some things are inevitable but you really shouldn't think you know when hey what is up guys we have been through the biggest expansion in the financial market history more than ten years ago since we have seen major market correction in this video I'll explain their market cycles and why recession is inevitable short-run economic forecasting is a black art nobody does it very well for what it's worth people who are tracking our feeling moderately depressed right now they're they're seeing slow growth right now and the markets the bond market is acting as if there's a pretty good chance of a recession sometime in the next year or so but who knows there are all kinds of things that could be going wrong China is clearly struggling Europe may very well actually already be in recession we probably are suffering the deflation of a tech bubble corporate death has gotten it I've been saying there's no one thing this is if we're going to have a recession it's going to be a smorgasbord recessions we know one thing but just a bunch of different things why all the doom and gloom mainly it's because the bond market recently flash warning signs that a recession could be on the horizon other economic indicators like US manufacturing activity we're also lower than analysts expected so when could a recession hit and how will we know it's been now quite some time since the 2008 recession so the US economy now has been growing for ten eleven years is a very long expansion we've seen recently if you just look at the popular press a bubble I would say in discussion about recessions everyone wants to talk about it ends there one just around the corner the fact that the expansion has lasted so long has no predictive power whatsoever for whether a recession will start tomorrow if I had to pick a date for the next recession it would be sometime in 2020 we're in a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle lots of jobs low unemployment wage growth is accelerating that's supporting more consumer spending which is causing businesses to hire which is pushing on employment debt so you were in a very virtuous cycle that's pretty hard to break but it can get broken and in my view that probably would occur in 2020 so the policies the economic policies that the administration pursuing is doing damage to the economy and that's going to become increasingly more obvious as we move through 2019 and 2020 and that's why I think 2020 is the day of reckoning if there is a day of reckoning that's when the economic expansion will end in the recession hope so before we jump into the next recession let's talk about market cycles first and foremost everything goes in cycles trees do not grow to sky and not everything goes to zero this is true in our economy this is true in financial market and this is true in human nature there is such a thing as life cycle people receive birth they live their lives and they die and process continues when dealing with humans let's remember we are not dealing with the creature of logic and rationality we are dealing with creatures of emotions as long as humans will make financial decisions in the market then we will always have cycles maybe sometimes in the future the entire decision-making it will be animated by AI then cycles might be disrupted but I highly doubt this will ever happen because people tend to believe they are smarter than everyone else and they also like to gamble let's go 20 years ago and see how cycles are cured in financial market in 2000 we had a dot-com bubble which was fueled by internet IPOs in masters were literally throwing money at any company that has something to do with Internet it went from hope to optimism to believe to euphoria at 1995 S&P 500 was trading at around five hundred dollars a share five years later it was trading at one thousand five hundred dollars a share that is a 1,000 points increase within five years if he converted into percentage that is 200% increase or it's 25 percent annual compound rate of returns which is pretty huge for a stock market euphoria does not last forever after euphoria we go to anxiety and then denial and finally panic and this is exactly what happened market crashed from $1500 dropped by 50% within two years when the market wasn't panic fat was able to save the day by cutting interest rates it dropped from 6% to 1% and stimulate another economic cycle from 2002 until 2007 S&P 500 doubled again within the same time frame this was another market cycle but increased for a different reason this time it was not fueled by internet IPOs but rather housing bubble that caused global financial crisis banks were lending subprime mortgages to people who could not afford the house I did not even had a decent job after that they packaged all the subprime shed into a bond with triple-a ratings from credit rating agencies and so that garbage throughout the world basically transferring toxic gas in the box from United States to different part of the world's but since people aren't creatures of logic but creatures of emotion they continue to buy those houses and fueling bigger in a bigger bubble because no one wants to miss out those cheap money euphoria did not last that long market heft again dropped from $1,500 people lost their houses and major banks went underwater but wait it didn't go down they got bailed out by government the Fed once again dropped interest rates from 5% to 0% and started another economic expansion now we are currently at the longest economic cycle that lasted for more than 10 years since the housing bubble when SP 500 was under 800 dollars a share now we're at almost a new all-time high at 3000 dollars a share that is 2200 points increase within 11 years or two hundred seventy percent it seems like we could be in euphoric state because the economy is doing so well but there is a problem current interest rate is at one point eighty-five percent if something happens to economy it could be a game over I believe fed will not decrease interest rates anymore I believe they will raise interest rates up to four percent at least because they have it so in Europe interest rates are negative basically what it means that banks will pay you interest to lend your money what a beautiful deal and people will do stupid things when you learn the midship money let's take a look what one of my favourite investors covered Marx he has to say about market cycles and our current economy and if we get to the point where a recession is something that has to be avoided at all costs yeah well it's a it's a big mistake in one of my memos post-mortem for the global financial crisis I talked about forest fires yep and good forest management you permit there to be fires once in a while and if you if you if there are fires of moderate-sized occasionally it burns out the fuel and then you don't get the one big one same thing in my opinion and the the fluctuations of the economy are natural in my opinion and should be permitted to occur yeah and if you try to forestall them then when they happen I don't think you can forestall them forever and when they happen they're bigger so when you look across the lens and excuse me and the attempt to forestall them creates moral hazard yeah that's that's the key but when you look across the landscape at this this kind of construct that we've built ourselves within the Federal Reserve or the central bank controlled world they can't control this forever short right there must come a point where things get out of hand do you sense coming back to that original question with 2005-2006 do you see any similarities in what you're seeing what's starting to make your spidey sense tingle not similarities in the sense of specific things repeating yep but I have felt that because people were traumatized by the Great Recession the recovery has been the slowest one since World War two and that has kept things moderate which meant that we would certainly have a recession one of these days but it would be moderate it wouldn't when you don't have a boom you don't have to have a bust in my belief but now between the tax bill which was a shot of adrenaline into in my opinion and already healthy patient and then the possibility that we're going to see a Powell put in action I think that we may get two highs that lead to lows you know I think that when when I was writing I'm a believer in cycles believe they always have occurred I think I understand why and I think they always will a car and and I tried to study them and then when I kind of got to the end of writing the book I said well why do we have cycles if the market goes up 10% a year on average why doesn't just go 10% over year why and in fact it almost never goes up between 8 and 12 so the average is not the norm why not and the answer I think is excesses and Corrections so you have a trend line and most trend lines are upward sloping yep but then you deviate from the trend line on the upside because of some combination of optimism and greed and wishful thinking and then you have to have a correction to the downside so now I'm thinking we may have more of an excess which leads to more of a correction you know I've thought a lot about this too I'm a great believer in cycles and everything I've read in history demonstrates beyond any argument that they do is everywhere you know I when I think that through I put that down to a human life you know we are we have there's a cycle of life and and markets are nothing but the collective representation of our greed and our insecurities and our cycles and as you know that that's a major theme at the bottom yeah exactly then but it but it's not it's a hard thing to argue that that when Pete and I've had a lot of people tell me I'm wrong cycles don't exist and and you shouldn't really build any kind of investment thesis around which are unremarkable the cycles come primarily from the behavior of people and I don't see how you can argue that people are not prone to excesses and repeating them and and you know the the big theme of the book is Mark Twain history does not repeat but it does rhyme and the world is just too unstable a place to believe that stability is the norm and you know if you think about it in the economy a great year is up for and a bad year is down too so the economy has an upward trend then it kind of goes like this then companies have leverage financial leverage and operating leverage so their profits go like this and then the market goes like this and why because of people yeah you know the risk in the market does not come from stock certificates companies exchanges it comes from people yeah but people are prone to excess and and I don't see how it can be argued otherwise and by the way when people say I don't think we're gonna have cycles in the future because the astute Fed has it under control or whatever it is what they're saying is the the what I consider the four worst words in the world it's different this time you know okay until now we've had cycles but we're not gonna have anymore so let's talk about the economic reality of this because the political reality is you are never gonna get to the bottom a listen in the time we have but the economic reality how do you take what you've observed on the political scene you take what you've looked in terms of asset prices and valuations and you take what you've seen from the Fed and the interest rate cycle how do you apply that to your investment philosophy right now has it changed anything has it made you adjust anything I think that grant the most important decision for an investor at a point in time with regard to the intermediate term I wish I mean not tomorrow and not thirty years but the next two to five years the most important decision to make today is whether to invest aggressively or defensively and it's not all one or all the other but how do you mix the two you know an investor like me faces two risks every day the obvious risk that everybody knows about is the risk of losing money the other risk which is a little more subtle is the risk of missing opportunity and so what most people say is well I don't want to lose a lot of money but on the other hand I don't want to miss all the opportunities so I'm going to do something that compromises on the two and each person's positioning Visa Visa the two risks should be different based on their circumstances but still then this that's the first question and then the second question is you figure out your normal risk position you look at today and you say well today should I be worrying more than usual about losing money or more than usual about missing opportunity and you know I just think that the world is an uncertain place and the things we're talking about contribute to the uncertainty and so today I would emphasize avoiding the loss of money a little higher than than usual visa fee avoiding the risk of missing opportunity everywhere you look across the financial landscape there are there's a series of successful and importantly pragmatic investors who are coming out and and issuing what the headline writers called stark warnings or dire warnings Seth Klarman being the most recent perhaps during the devasting recently that I'm always interested that that cacophony of voices that gets louder and louder and and more respected by the day doesn't seem to change behavior at all we seem to be in this period where do you'll find that fear of missing out is being re-weight adjusted by the smart investors the guys who are always early and yet the retail investors are wiping their brows and saying what December's over Kramer said the markets gonna go up we should we should investigate the dip on Christmas Day everything's good again do you know deep deep when you look at the Y average retail investors think about this do you fully want to find a way to reach out to them say listen you need to think about it like this you're not thinking about this correctly it's a tough one yeah grant because you know I always imagine you know the the movies that are made for the teenagers and over here sitting on the shoulder you have the angel saying don't do it it's not prudent you you know you'll regret it in the morning and over here you have the devil saying do it it'll be fun and the devil wins every time and that's why we have the movies right but in in the in the investment business you know you have prudence and history and knowledge of cycles and and consciousness of the of the risks and over here the devil says do it you'll get rich and you know wishful thinking there's the desire to get rich there's really dominant and and and the fear of missing out together and so we saw in the fourth quarter an incredible swing of psychology from positive to negative but then back and most of the damage has been made up and you know most people don't invest in the long term they're just trying to bet on what the markets gonna do the the retail that you describe but also many professionals yes because they're they're afraid to be cautious and miss a good month yeah because they could lose business and it kind of goes back maybe to your first question which is that most people are afraid to be wrong and since the market goes up most of the time being wrong consists of being out which means most people are afraid to be out and so they they're their nature doesn't permit them to get out until it's too late until until the crisis is upon us
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