저자: MichaelBurry·SteveEisman · 외국인
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Michael Burry는 패시브(인덱스) 투자 자금 쏠림이 2000년대 후반 서브프라임 CDO 거품과 유사한 버블을 만들고 있으며, 시장이 붕괴할 때 유동성 문제로 큰 손실이 날 수 있다고 주장한다. 그는 채권 ETF로의 자금 유입이 주식 유입을 웃도는 이례적 흐름과 TIPS 펀드 유입(약 15억 달러, 기록적)을 근거로 제시하며, 가격이 기본적 분석이 아닌 대규모 자금 흐름에 의해 왜곡되고 있다고 본다. Steve Eisman은 2008년 금융위기 때 서브프라임 모기지 CDO 공매도로 큰 수익을 냈던 인물로, 당시 부실 모기지 채권의 신용부도스왑(CDS) 활용을 설명한다. Eisman은 현재 Zillow(ZG/Z)에 대해 성장 둔화, 자체 주택 매입·재판매(iBuying) 사업의 높은 자본 집약성과 위험을 이유로 강하게 비판하며 공매도 포지션을 유지하고 있다고 밝힌다. 두 사람 모두 신용평가 체계의 한계와 기초 분석 중요성을 강조한다. 영상 기준 Zillow는 약 50달러에서 30달러대로 하락해 Eisman이 수익을 내고 있는 상황으로 소개된다. 영상은 2019년 9월 기준이며 자막에는 다수의 자동인식 오류가 있어 일부 수치와 발언 해석에 한계가 있을 수 있다. 결론적으로 두 투자자 모두 패시브 자금 쏠림에 따른 버블 위험과 Zillow의 사업모델 취약성을 경고하는 취지의 발언을 한다.
다듬은 글
you wanna bet against the housing market you know we're prepared to sell you five million in credit default swaps on these mortgage bonds absolutely we can make it 100 million is there any way to hey what is up guys Michael burry of the Big Short says he found next market bubble in passive investment and another guy of the big short Steve Eastman that grumpy money manager you know home talking about now is betting against a real estate company in this video we will dive deep in and see what exactly those guys are talking about Michael burry made his name betting against the housing market and he became a bit of a celebrity when Michael Lewis featured him in his book the big short but since shutting down his hedge fund in 2008 Barry has been quiet about his investments until now passive investments are slating stocks and bonds in similar way that collateralized that obligation did for subprime mortgages more than ten years ago Barry sell bloomberg news like most of bubbles the longer it goes on the worse the crash will be the theater keeps getting more crowded but the exit door is still the same at ease always was all this gets worst as you get into the last liquid equity and bond market globally Michael burry basically what he's trying to say that theater will explode if people coming in with a higher rate than people exit them I can only imagine what that bloody mass would be Barry manages about 340 million dollars at asset management his shots of Fame was by betting against mortgage security before the 2008 crisis Barry was featured in a Michael Lewis book the big short and subsequent oscar-winning movie of the same name the big short and this is one of my favorite movie besides wool for The Wall Street low-cost basic vehicle health gained popularity in Wall Street best investments here now taken over nearly half of the stock market as more investors leave active managers and move into index fund according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity passive funds along held ballooned to more than three trillion dollars market in less than ten years those funds mirror just about anything that can be tracked they include indices such as as it be 500 or Russell 2000 we talk week weekend week out here a lot but one of the things almost every week is fixed income ETF flows if you look at equity flows versus fixed income flows you know historically you can see here how unusual that is this is fixed income this is equity that's about a sixty billion dollar differential look at how unusual that is of equity almost always crushes fixed income it's a bigger asset class so this is highly unusual the last time this has happened it's only happened one other time and that was in 2009 and it was barely and you know people were pretty skittish after 2008 so you can understand why fixed income did better so just a remarkable situation it might not hold up but for now it's very it's a very it's probably the story of the year August in general was a very busy month for ETF trading it was the busiest month of the year actually and we saw a lot of money moving around as investors were repositioning following the Fed cut and tips was one of the biggest beneficiaries across all tips funds we saw inflows of about 1.5 billion which was a record and on the other hand we saw money coming out of floating rate notes which saw an almost equal amount about flows for the month so another theme that we've seen in addition to money moving into Treasuries and inflation protected Treasury tips is Michael burry of the Big Short Fame talking about how passive is a bubble he's kind of the latest one to do this he to Bloomberg News that it's very much like the bubble in synthetic fact asset-backed cdo's before the financial crisis in that price sitting in that market was not done by fundamental security level analysis but by massive capital flows based on no bail approved models of risk that proved to be untrue so in other words Eric index low inflows are distorting prices away CEOs did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago yeah I mean might take a look if you take ETFs index funds out of the equation I still think people are gonna own Amazon and Apple just through active mutual funds so I don't agree but you own ETF's you own them for clients and their retirement so right what do you think when you hear these kind of concerns come out from these reputable sources it is concerning and that's why we focus more on an active and active you know and not so in line with the passive or if we're doing passive we we approach with an active strategy around the passive so you know a few a few of our our place outside the passive bubble something you said oh I see with it's the consumer services ETF the iShares and the manure in line with with what consumers are doing with as far as their their consumer confidence then there is this another guy always angry and agitated he also bet big on housing bubble before 2008 happened his bed was against the subprime mortgage industry whose collapse helped trigger the financial crisis he shorted the financial instruments known as collateralized depth obligation then bundled the subprime mortgages together and who's fairly equipped the entire Wall Street just like in that clip he was influenced by investment banker the housing bubble is about to break down how many people have you talked to about this trade a few there's definitely some interest oh my boss would have my and I'm crazy you which is why you're here talking to us a wrong number you smell that what is that what what's it's me look alone No opportunity no.1 me I smell money the default rates are already up from 1 to 4 percent fellows and if they rise to 8% and they will a lot of these triple B's are going to 0-2 and that need to close is an opportunity okay you're saying that at 8% the bonds fail and we are already at 4% that's right if they go to 8 it's Armageddon yeah that's right how come nobody's talking about this so you're offering us a chance to short this pile of blocks how with something called a credit default swap it's like insurance on the bond and if it goes bust you can make 10 to 1 even 20 to 1 return and it's already slowly going bust 10 to 121 and no one's paying attention mortgage bonds are dog CDOs are dog wrapped in cash in yeah that's right as a smart investor he was very hesitant and skeptical so what did he do he started doing his own research and investigation if this is indeed true what investment banker was claiming this grumpy guy was mark Baum who played the character in the movie Big Short in real life his name is Steve Esmond he is currently predicting bad things ahead for anyone betting on online real estate site Zillow which has been trying to expand its operation but faces stiff challenges you rely on bond ratings at all never and what do you do instead I actually do my own research and that is how you uncovered some of the internal weaknesses in the in the synthetic securities that brought the system basically to the brink of disaster is you went in mortgage by mortgage and looked at what was in there and saw that what was being rated as filet was charitably something far less than that I think that's a fair statement I mean I what what your guests said that the business model the rating agencies is unchanged is 100% accurate and as long as the the issuers pay the reigning agencies which is what they did pre-crisis and what they do post crisis you'll always run the risk of rating great great credit rating inflation everybody would love to know what you're doing right now in with your investments and without without opening your playbook totally I know that one of your shorts lately has been the real estate data and an brokerage Zillow it is down very heavily today so you're having a nice day I guess why why is Zillow one of your sort of flagship shorts right now I would say Zola has one of the most flawed business models I've seen in a very very long time they had a good business which was their internet real estate platform the growth and that has slowed dramatically so that now the growth is zero and in that business they're having real problems they like to say that they're experimenting with new pricing but really what they're doing is they're trying to change the pricing of their entire business that's a problem the part is I find the most problematic is what they call their I believe I home business an internet buying business where they actually go out and buy homes and flip them I actually think the company doesn't understand the risks the real risk of this business which are massive and one of the ways you can see that is last night on the conference call the first words out of the CEOs mouth when he talked about this business was the how big the TAM was a totally addressable market and of course the real estate market united states is very very large but it's a miss application of the word tam to apply it to the real estate market because there really is no tam and the way people think about it in terms of the internet there are thousands of many markets all over the United States they're all local they're all extremely different they all have incredibly different risks for example did you know that in Dallas there's a problem that many many homes have cracked foundations these type of different problems exist all over the country this is a capital intensive business I know I know only one thing for certain between now five years from now assuming the company has some level of success there will be massive problems that they will uncover I'm sure they'll be right downs I'm sure there'll be impairment and I'm convinced that the investor base there's not a clue about what this business is really all about the portfolio manager has been shortened Zillow for some time and explained to CNBC in an interview that the companies won't be able to grow its business as the business model of the company is fraudulent so far he is correct the interview with CNBC was conducted in August and in that time the real estate company Zillow under the symbol is eg was training at around 43 dollars a share $50.00 prior to the interview now in September the same company is trading at $30 a share which is pretty good bad he starting shorting that company at $50 a share so he is currently making around $20 of profit from each share which is 40% return on your investment it's not bad at all if you ask me well what do you guys think about Michael berry predicting itself bubble and Steve Eastman better against real estate company leave your thoughts in the comment section below hit that like button and subscribe
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