저자: Aimstone · 외국인
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결론: 영상 화자는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 들어갔다고 주장하며, 주식시장 상승에도 불구하고 버핏지표상 시장이 고평가라고 본다. GDP 기준 침체 판단: 2020년 1분기 미국 GDP가 약 5% 감소했고, 2분기는 40% 이상 감소가 예상된다며 연속 2분기 마이너스 성장을 침체 정의(통상 2분기 연속 감소)로 제시. 소비·투자 지표: 소비지출(GDP의 약 68%)은 3월 -7%, 4월 -13%로 급감했고, 민간 국내투자는 약 10% 감소했다. 정부지출은 1분기부터 급증 중이다. 버핏지표: 전체 시가총액 약 31조 달러 ÷ GDP 약 21조 달러 ≈ 147%로 적정가치 범위(75~90%)를 크게 웃돌아 시장이 고평가라고 주장. GDP 수준 이하로 떨어질 때가 투자 적기이며, 현재는 신중해야 한다고 조언. 미 국채 디폴트 논쟁: 주주 질문에 대한 워런 버핏의 답변(자국통화 부채는 디폴트하지 않고 찍어내면 된다, 구매력은 의문)을 인용. 화자는 구매력이 100에서 0이 되면 사실상 디폴트라며 버핏 답변이 법률적 표현에 머문 회피적 답변이라고 비판하고 버핏에게 F 학점을 줌. 달러 전망: 달러는 기축통화로서 법적 디폴트는 없겠지만 구매력은 크게 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 다른 통화(루블 등)는 더 빠르게 가치가 떨어질 것이며, 법정화폐 자체가 좋지 않으니 현금 보유로 부를 지키려 하지 말라고 조언. 출연자 전망: 화자 개인의 종합 시장 전망(침체 지속, 주식 고평가, 달러 구매력 하락)을 제시했으며, 구체적 종목 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey what's up guys we are officially in the recession despite the fact that stock market is going up in this video i will explain why we are in the recession then we will take a look at the warren buffett's sneaker respond when he was asked about the current state of our economy and us dollar default the most important economic indicator that can tell us if we are in the recession or not is without a doubt gross domestic product or in short gdp gdp usually grows between two to four percent a year on average the current economic slowdown caused by this recent illness has worried many people that we entered into recession in the first quarter of 2020 u.s gdp dropped by almost five percent that is the largest contraction since the 2008 global financial crisis where gdp dropped close to eight percent in two consecutive quarters but first let's take a look what exactly gdp is and why is the most important economic indicator to determine if we are in the recession or not the general gdp formula is this it keeps track of all goods and services produced in the united states from buying drink at the bar to producing cars such as tesla to flying around the country last year in 2019 we produced 19.4 trillion dollars of goods and services worth of gdp to find out if we are into this session or not we have to define what recession is in the first place well i'm not going to come up with my new definition but according to google recession is a period of temporarily economic decline during which trade and industry activities are reduced generally identified by default in gdp in two consecutive quarters the most important part of gdp is consumer spending consumer spending makes up to 68 of gdp consumer spending index full seven percent in march and staggering 13 in april just for comparison in 2008 global financial crisis consumer spending index full by two to three percent but now second quarter of 2020 is not even finished and consumer spending index is in double digit losses as businesses shut down and americans forced to stay home and watch netflix or shop in costco well i don't know what you guys do there but that's what i do second and the most important part of gdp is business investment which does not mean throwing your money into the stock market but building factories and creating jobs what it does it creates productivity gains private domestic investment already declined by 10 since most of the businesses were locked down government spending is the third component of the gdp equation government spending continues to rise during the first quarter of 2020 and is going to skyrocket in the second quarter of 2020 as printing press was turned on on the full speed and helicopter money were thrown left and right just for simplicity we're going to ignore another part of gdp equation that is expert minus imports but those numbers don't look good either both of them unsteady decline while demand diminished so in simple language gdp in the first quarter dropped by five percent and in second quarter gdp is projected to drop by more than 40 percent well you do not have to be a math genius to add two number together and figure it out that indeed we are in the recession by definition since 2 consecutive quarter show negative growth in fact there is no guarantee that even in the third quarter will be positive so i hope we all agree that we are in the recession but what does that mean for you as an investor why does the stock market continues to go up well to address that question let's take a look at my favorite economic indicator that explains if the stock market is in bubble or not that is warren buffett indicator in 2001 warren buffet said that it is probably the best single measure of evaluation stand at any given moment and looking back historically the indicator has not lied i spoke about this before but i think it is very important for people to really understand how it works buffett indicator is very simple and easy to use we take the entire stock market capitalization and divide by gdp the ratio compares the value of all public stocks at an aggregate level to the value of the country's total output so as of may 29 2020 the total market index is at 31 trillion dollars while gdp as a first quarter of 2020 is at around 21 trillion dollars respectively so we take one apple divided by another apple and we get 1.47 take that number multiply by 100 and we get 147 percent which means that the market is significantly overvalued fair value is between 75 to 90 percent just to clarify everything if the stock market drops below gdp level just like we have seen in 2000.com bubble and 2008 housing bubble it means it's a good time to invest if the stock market is higher than the gdp level especially significantly higher like right now you should think twice before you put in your money into the market now let's take a look at the recent berkshire hathaway meeting where a shareholder had a verified question about us government defaulting on its bond and let's also pay attention to how warren buffett responds to this question all right this question comes from charlie wang he's a shareholder in san francisco he says given the unprecedented time of the economy and the debt level could there be any risks and consequences of the us government defaulting on its bonds no if you print bonds in your own currency what happens to the currencies can be a question but you don't default the united states has been smart enough and people have trusted us enough to issue its debt in our its own currency and argentina is now having a problem because the debt isn't in the their own currency and lots of countries have had that problem and lots of countries will have a problem in the future it is very painful to hold money in somebody else's currency but listen if i could issue a currency buffett bucks and i had a printing press and i could borrow money on that i would never default so what you end up getting in terms of purchasing power can be in doubt but in terms of the us government i when standard force downgraded the united states government i think it was standard force some years back to me that did not make sense i mean in the end how you can regard any corporation as stronger than the a person who can print the money to pay you i just don't understand so don't worry about the government defaulting i think it's kind of crazy incidentally this should be said to have these limits on the debt and all of that sort of thing and then stopped government arguing about whether it's going to increase the limits we're going to increase the limits on that the debt isn't going to be paid it's going to be refunded and anybody that thinks they're going to bring down the national debt i mean that that you know there's been brief periods and uh i think in the late 90s or thereabouts when the debts come down a little bit the country's going to print more than it's going to industry the country is going to grow in terms of its its paying capacity and the trick is to keep borrowing in your own currency so i have never disliked a warren buffett comment more than this one i mean i really really dislike his response on this but let me put it this way he's right in what he said it's just the way that he said it right so is the u.s gonna default on their money or on their debt nope they sure as heck aren't they're gonna print it and they're going to fulfill all of those debt obligations and boy the people owning that are gonna really hate that experience he had a really key phrase in there he said what you get in purchasing power can be in doubt and he said it real fast and he said it like it was a nothing burger but it was the crux of the entire response right so let me just ask this question if your purchasing power goes from 100 to zero was that a default in phraseology yes that's a freaking default man like you lost everything right if your purchasing power goes from 100 down to one you lost all your purchasing power it's worthless but in legal terms did you default nope you sure didn't so that's why i don't like the way he responded to this question because he almost comes across as a lawyer and he doesn't really explain the essence of the question like the intention of the question is a good intended question and i think he gave a really slimy response to it so warren you get an f from me on this warren buffet said that us will never default on this bond as long as they keep printing and this is true why would they default why would they want to lose so much power they basically control the entire world with us dollar because u.s dollar is a global reserve currency but preston made a very good point that in reality they won't default but in practice they will drastically decrease us dollar purchasing power which is no bueno but it could be much worse look at other countries look all those countries that do not use u.s dollar such as russia they devaluing their currency like crazy that's why they have such a shared economy when they trade with other countries the trade is mostly conducted in other form of other currency but ruble because nobody gives a above shari ruble anyway there are over 20 trillion dollars of global denominated debt in u.s dollar which means when there is a trade between two countries u.s dollar predominantly will be involved since counterparts trust more us dollar than any other currency in the world i think united states is the last country to default on its currency yes us dollar will lose its purchasing power but other countries currencies are in huge disadvantage which means their purchasing power will drop much faster than u.s dollar but in the end of the day fiat currency is no good so do not try to save your currency and think you will get rich let me know what do you guys think about recession and they wouldn't buff its respons
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