저자: TomLee—영상진행자Aimstone은발언대상아님 · 외국인
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2021년 비트코인 가격 전망과 2020년 회고 영상. 진행자 Aimstone은 2020년 비트코인이 주식·금 대비 최고 성과를 냈다고 정리하고, 3월 급락 시 매수했다고 밝힘. 기관 유입 근거로 Grayscale의 대량 매수(유통량의 3% 이상 보유), PayPal 서비스 확대, Square·MicroStrategy·Mass Mutual·Skybridge Capital 등의 투자 사례를 제시. 공급 측면에서 유동 공급이 줄고 있어 가격 상승 요인이 된다고 주장. 채굴량은 하루 약 900개 수준. Tom Lee는 2021년이 2017년과 비슷할 것이라며 비트코인이 300% 이상 상승할 것으로 전망. 현재 약 28,000달러 대비 4배 수준인 약 11만2천달러 도달 가능성을 제시. 상승 근거로 달러 약세, 디지털 세대의 자산 선호, 금 대비 실물 자산의 부담(보관·세금·보험) 등을 제시. Michael Saylor의 발언을 인용해 비트코인의 탈중앙화가 게이트키퍼 리스크를 없애 안정성이 높다고 주장하고, 지분증명(PoS) 방식의 취약성을 지적. 리스크: 본 영상은 낙관론 중심이며 변동성·규제 등 하방 리스크는 구체적으로 다루지 않음. 결론: 진행자와 Tom Lee 모두 2021년 비트코인 강세를 전망함.
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hey what's up guys despite corona i hope you had a wonderful 2020. in this video i will give you a quick recap of bitcoins 2020 then i will show you a shocking proof of bitcoin supply shortage and finally tom lee will give his bitcoin price prediction for 2021 2020 was very unpredictable and scary year for most of americans and many people around the world when corona came to united states it slashed the stock market by 30 percent gdp year over year took a big hit as well unemployment rate drove to new historic highs in the third quarter we saw massive recovery in the tax sector that carried the entire stock market to all-time highs but unemployment rate as small businesses continue to stagnate for bitcoin on the other hand this was the best year since 2017.
in march when corona gave us a visit stock market dropped by 30 but bitcoin dropped by close to 60 percent till under four thousand dollars this was the time when i started buying bitcoin aggressively since then bitcoin had a decent recovery and on may 11th we had a successful bitcoin having event where bitcoin was dropped from 12.5 btc still 6.25 btc at that time bitcoin was trading at around 8 500 and few months later it slightly increased still 10 000 and this is the second time when i decided to buy some more bitcoin just because i believe at ten thousand dollars bitcoin was still relatively inexpensive and i knew it was not the top because not many mainstream medias and people were talking about it so in 2020 i bought bitcoin only two times since september bitcoin took off like a rocket ship right now it's trading over 28 000 dollars yesterday it reached a new all-time high of 29 000 to be quite frankly guys bitcoin went far above my expectations in 2020 in early 2020 i thought bitcoin might reach it around 20 thousand dollars max kaiser another hand nailed this he predicted 28 000 by the end of the 2020 so great call by max kaiser if you take a look at this chart it's not a secret that bitcoin is the best performing asset class comparing to more traditional asset classes such as stocks and precious metals the blue line is performance of s p 500 in 2020 s p 500 gained only 15 year-to-date gold on other hand performed slightly better than s p 500 it gained 25 in 365 days but bitcoin divorced in 2020 every asset class there is it gained 300 percent year-to-date this is insane in 2020 we have grayscale buying up bitcoin and record rate now it owns more than 3 of all bitcoins in circulation paypal opened its services for 350 million people to buy selling whole bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies it also buys up bitcoin at a massive rate there is also square that invested 15 million into bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset and company continues to buy a bitcoin for cash app then we have microstrategy it invested more than one billion dollars into bitcoin and michael sealer invested more than 200 million dollars of his own money into bitcoin 136 years old insurance company mass mutual buys 100 million worth of bitcoin and now just today news came out that sky bridge capital has already invested 182 million into bitcoin so no wonder why bitcoin price continues to go up this is the chart of the year this chart represents bitcoin liquid versus a liquid supply glasnost suggests that there are 14.5 million bitcoin in circulation that are illiquid these are bitcoins that you cannot buy even if you want to it represents by this blue area curve there are around 1.2 million bitcoin in liquid supply and 3 million bitcoin in highly liquid supply those are the bitcoins the trading on exchanges and otc markets so it's not that many bitcoins go around especially for big institutional players here is another cool chart that represents bitcoin liquidity versus illiquidity supply the yellow line represents liquid supply the blue line represents illiquid supply and the black line represents the total supply of bitcoin as we can see the total supply of bitcoin slightly increases over time the liquid supply drastically drops and now we see this cross where a liquid supply crosses liquid supply and bitcoin price skyrockets we already saw something similar in 2017 when this crosstakers bitcoin price rallied a lot and i expect more liquid supply to shrink as more investors hold bitcoin as the treasury reserve assets for a long period of time and did not plan to sell it bitcoin miners only produce 900 bitcoins a day so there is definitely not that many bitcoins to go around suddenly yes they went on cnbc and gave his beacon price prediction for 2021.
i haven't heard nothing from him for a long period of time and now finally here we are let's take a look what his bitcoin prediction for 2021 is tom lee joins us he's the head of research for fun strat global advisors tom great to have you with us yeah thanks for having me uh your forecast do you wish you you put out a higher number at this point how much bitcoin's risen in such a short amount of time yeah you know uh yeah that number it actually came from david greiter who's our digital asset strategist but uh i think in rounder numbers you know 2021 is gonna be a lot like 2017 um which means bitcoin should do even better in 2021 than it did in 2020 so something above 300 percent a more than 300 percent return on bitcoin is what you're forecasting we're just having a conversation about the the interplay or the relationship potentially of a weaker dollar in a stronger bitcoin is that part of this thesis is that part of your thesis time um it's going to be part of it uh for two reasons you know first um you know bitcoin it's going to be denominated in something so if the dollar is weakening but bitcoin holds its value then bitcoin goes up but the more important effect is this year you know we did see a lot of central bank liquidity the dollar was really strong uh surprisingly for much of the year but its weakness now really is is going to make people think you know how do you sort of keeps a unit in sound money a lot of people thought gold would be that sort of store and it i think it still has a reasonable basis to be you know for someone to be long gold but i think for younger folks and those who are in the digital generation bitcoin is that digital asset that they want to hold as a store value tomly expects bitcoin to perform in 2021 similar like it did in 2017.
he expects something about 300 gains 300 this is going to be 4x from this current price right now bitcoin is slightly over 28 000 per coin if it gains additional 4x in 2021 the price can reach over one hundred twelve thousand dollars a coin one part of this thesis came from the weakness of dollar and strength of bitcoin also as younger generations growing up in this digital world it becomes more natural for them to hold and buy bitcoin and gold is just weird i do not see 20 year old buying gold gold is mostly for all the people those who grow up without internet and mainly placed value in tangible assets but the world has changed day by day digital world becomes bigger and bigger it's eating away tangible assets in fact tangible assets becomes bigger liability than you think if you own gold you will be liable to protect it from someone who wants to steal it or you will have to pay management fees for somebody to do it for you if you own a house you consistently have to pay property tax maintenance and repairs that's a liability if you own a car it's not only lost 30 percent of its purchasing power as soon as you left the dealership you also have to pay insurance maintenance gasoline and repairs that's a liability if you own bitcoin you do not have none of those things now let's take a look at my favorite bitcoin advocate of 2020 michael saylor where he explains anti-fragility of bitcoin very important clip let's take a look so gatekeeper is a very powerful metaphor right the reason that the great wall of china fell was because there were gates and there were gatekeepers and the prosperity of a hundred million people can be destroyed by corrupting the one on the gate right as soon as the one gatekeeper opens the gate the hundred thousand person army comes through and and herein you see the problem with hiding behind a wall or hiding behind a wall with a gate in it much better idea would be i have my own hundred thousand person army and when that army comes i stand against them right and that's what the romans knew the romans never sat and cowered behind a gate they they knew and anybody in a war knows you have to go and leave the citadel and you have to direct actively fight the army that would kill you because if they manage to surround you and isolate you no amount of defense is going to hold them back they will find a way through and that and that's the story of history um gatekeepers are your weakness there's no gatekeepers in bitcoin right and thereby and there's no gatekeepers in a in a decentralized proof of work network that's energy intensive that's one of the problems i think of like proof-of-stake networks or the every time someone tries to come up with a quote-unquote more efficient way to do it well if you're going to secure a trillion dollar network with a billion dollars of stuff staked the problem with that is that all i need is another billion dollars right to bribe that person or half a billion half a billion bribes have that network and then i topple the entire trillion and i get it all right and so when you have anything where i'm playing games where i'm trying to use a small amount of energy or small and money is energy right a small amount of money a small amount energy if you're trying to use a small amount of energy to secure a large amount of energy you created a gatekeeper and so you need to flip the pyramid and and that's why there's no shortcuts here there's no such thing as a free lunch and it's it doesn't terribly bother me that that bitcoin channels a lot of energy through encryption facilities a minor is an encryption facility it's it's it's generating sha-256 hashes and you have to get and you're gonna have to get through that you know hash wall and the only way you can get through it is you're going to have to buy yourself 51 of all that equipment on earth and then you're going to have to harness 51 of all the energy and then you're going to have to attack and it still may not work and the joke of course is if you really could buy 51 of the of the encryption equipment and harness 51 of the energy you could have 51 of the block rewards and 51 of the transaction fees and the value of owning half of the transaction fees is higher i like when the things were 10 trillion dollars and the transaction fees are one percent there's going to be a hundred billion dollars a year worth of transaction fees so it's 51 billion dollars a year if you cap that at times 20 it's a trillion dollars just to go along with the program so someone's gonna have to have a hundred trillion dollars and be really mad in order to want to spend a trillion to destroy other people it just doesn't make any sense plus you're not gonna get to attack the thing without a counter attack right because at the point that you have a hundred million people that all have all of their life's energy all of their hopes their aspirations and all of their economic security and physical security invested in the network they're probably not going to roll over and let you do it like it's it's pretty hard for one evil genius by themself to plot a trillion dollar war on a cyber network how are you gonna gather the software the hardware the monetary energy and the political support by yourself and if you're not by yourself i'm reminded of the phrase three can keep a secret if two of them are dead so when i think about bitcoin i think it's harder but it's harder because it's it's a evolving herd creature an evolving swarm creature and it's evolving as fast as it can and and it feels pain and as nicolas toleb says an anti-fragile pain is a good thing you can tell the difference between people that get it and people that don't get it there's there's a group of people in life that run from pain and they're attempting to anesthetize themselves and always isolate themselves from pain and there's a group of people that run toward pain or at least they embrace pain pain's a good thing the more pain you feel the faster your reflexes put your hand on a hot stove it moves quickly you have reflexes right so that that uh that system is learning and pain is one of our number one information signals maybe the most important information signal in order to provide a living organism with vitality gatekeepers are like centralized they're like centralized banks or centralized regulators those are gatekeepers and political financial systems and gatekeepers on the wall of china on a wall are literally gatekeepers and and the result is one person uh has the power to destroy the lives of a million by opening the gate because bitcoin doesn't have a gate there's no there's no gatekeeper therefore there's no asymmetric payoff it's it's not economically feasible to break through i like the analogy about gatekeepers there is no gatekeepers in bitcoin and this is why i believe decentralization is the single most important aspect about bitcoin if network is decentralized there is no gatekeepers another example he brought up above proof of stake if you want to secure a one trillion dollars with one billion dollars at stake all you need is one billion dollars to grab the gatekeepers but here's the problem with that example if that one billion dollars at stake is decentralized you cannot bribe the centralized network there is no gatekeepers at that point either and there is no financial incentive to destroy the network show me the incentive i will show you the outcome if you have 1 billion you can plug that 1 billion into the network and receive an interest and make the network stronger but at the same time let's say you can bribe all those miners with 1 billion dollars the network will collapse and you will lose your 1 billion bucks which just doesn't make any sense the centralized network is more secure than you think let me know what do you guys think about 2020 and what do you expect in 2021 for bitcoin leave your thoughts in the comment section below hit that like button and subscribe
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