저자: ChamathPalihapitiya/진행자AndrewRossSorkin계열인터뷰 · 외국인
요약 보기
2008년 경기침체와 현재(2020년 6월)를 비교하며, 연준의 ETF 매입 등 대규모 유동성 공급이 자산 인플레이션을 만들고 실물경기와 괴리를 키운다는 진단이다. 2008년 금융위기는 은행의 부실 모기지 대출과 증권화에서 비롯됐고, 이번 경기침체는 팬데믹 같은 외부 충격에 따른 셧다운 때문이라고 설명한다. 실업률은 약 20% 수준으로 추정되며 4,300만 명이 실직 상태이고, 그중 42%는 영구 해고될 가능성이 있다고 주장한다. 좀비기업을 구제하면 시장의 자연스러운 정리가 막힌다는 자유시장 논리를 편다. 야생동물 먹이 주기 비유를 들며, 항공·호텔·외식 등 기업 지원은 생존 능력을 떨어뜨린다고 비판한다. 연준 정책은 대형 기술기업에만 자본이 쏠리는 구조를 강화하고, 소비자는 저축으로 돌아서 디플레이션 장기화(일본식 침체)가 우려된다고 말한다. 대안으로는 자산 매입이 아닌 미국 납세자에게 직접 재정 지원을 하라고 주장한다. 자산시장은 실물경제와 분리되어 단기적으로 계속 오를 수 있지만, 결국 GDP 수준으로 평균회귀할 것이라고 전망한다. 발언 전체에서 특정 종목의 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hey what's up guys we are currently in a recession but what can 2008 recession teach us about this one I will answer this question in this video then Chamath Poli Bhatia will give his own market predictions in 2008 Wall Street blow up the economy the 2008 housing bubble not caused by the stroke of bad luck it was caused by some fundamentally poor choices made by Wall Street during the housing boom banks had given mortgages to people with bad credit even your dog could qualify for those mortgage loans many banks then sold those mortgages as an investment called mortgage-backed securities to other banks who bundled did that with other similar loans and created those toxic mortgages the idea was that those toxic mortgages would make banks money when those loans would be paid off not sure if your dog would be able to pay off mortgage but unsurprisingly the foreclosure increased mainly banks began to fail in order to fix the problem the government passed the reform like a dodd-frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010 and created as a tree leaf program of 700 billion dollars to let government bailed out failing banks at that time bail out big banks and let other industries failed such as auto sector was highly controversial many felt it was rewarding companies for making bad decisions but ultimately government had to step in and keep the financial system from completely collapsing in its once it's 20 Main Street has collapsed the current recession is not caused by the broken link within the system but from the external threat a worldwide illness known as a Black Swan event that happens once a century in order to keep illness from spreading many government forced non-essential businesses to close the doors and brought in lockdown orders bring many industries to Denis Market has already almost recovered yes sp500 is almost positive year-to-date market thinks we will see sunshine and rainbows from now on but throughout the history markets has been punished with a central control intervention have you ever noticed when you take a walk in the woods that is a sign that says please do not feed the animals why do you think that sign is there do you think that sign is there because they don't want you to feed animals with specific foods no the reason for the sign if you feed wild animals they lose their ability to gather food in the woods and as a result they become less resilient and the survival is at risk what I just described is free market the best examples of free market can be found in danger but there is spontaneous float without central control intervention another a very similar example of free market is when wild animals fighting each other for food if you go to the place where lions and hyenas slapping each other for the Peace of zebra and you start feeding those lines they will automatically start expecting more and more food from you and they will become more lazy and won't be able to survive if for some reason you will start feeding them the same has happened to the current market many companies such as airlines hotels and many restaurants will help in bankrupt by now if the fad would not interfere just like in nature there is only one way to survive fat would help to continuously supply funds for those businesses on my opinion that isn't right zombie companies should fail just like the weakest link in the wild will not survive let's go back to reality if you look at this chart we will see that volatility spiked drastically we had swings up and down on a weekly basis but almost 20% that's crazy last time we had seen something like this was back 10 years ago in 2008 financial crisis in fact during that time volatility was even a bit less unemployment rate reached unprecedented levels there wore some shade the cover-up or miscalculation about the current unemployment rate but I'm pretty sure that we are currently about 20% during 2008 housing bubble the unemployment rate was around 10% currently there are more than 43 million people unemployed the University of Chicago estimated that 42 percent of recent job layoffs will be gone for good if it do some simple math for itsu percent of 43 million that's roughly 18 million people will remain unemployed slightly less than 10 percent unemployment rate will remain that is the harsh truth a healthy France who used to work in restaurants that won't be coming back to work plus they do not have any other social skills to get a job in some highly rewarded sacked or let's not get get away too much and let's take a look at Chairman polyphagia what he has to say about our current economy and the stock market chamalla it's great to see you this morning I think where I want to start is the big news of today and what's become a debate the Fed planning to buy up ETFs backed by bonds and and what that means and what do you think it says about our economy and what kind of debate you think there's going to be in this country about the steps the government's taking well I think that if there was any doubt before there should be no doubt now that we have completely divorced the economy from the stock and the bond markets and you know the Fed has been the principal agent of that obfuscation and so you know what these guys are doing now is with the ballooning balance sheet and all this money going in to prop up companies what you're going to start is a really bad or you're going to accelerate a really bad deflationary supercycle here so you know if you think about this Andrew like the best technology companies in the world have literally been training billions of consumers to not really spend money right the whole idea is if you wait tomorrow you'll get more for less whether that's YouTube or Facebook or Google or Amazon the point is that these guys have really conditioned people that you know you want balance want to actually not be spending that much money because we'll just be giving you more and more value and when you on top of that then add to the fact that the Fed comes in pumps in all of this money that has to go someplace consumers respond by picking these companies that give them more for less that's where all the profits get trapped as a result a handful of companies really disproportionately perform and inflate the equity markets the companies that actually traffic in traditional business models that don't necessarily have technical get decimated and so that cycle is just going to get exacerbated and exacerbated so in the real world things among continued get cheaper for the future tomorrow here's the question and I'm not advocating the Fed doesn't do these things because I don't think that there's many other options the problem is that it's a blunt instrument to a large degree and while you would love to make the the stimulus if you will more effective or get it to the right people we don't have a system of government that necessarily is at least you can or is willing to do that well we have to figure out how to break this cycle of deflation and when we're a debtor when you are a debtor the best thing for you is some form of inflation or at least to minimize the effects of deflation and the reality is that we do have a system and you don't have to pick who the quote-unquote right people are the right people is every citizen of the United States and I've said this before but this is a point in time where direct fiscal stimulus should be going to the hands of US taxpayers it is the most effective way to blunt this unnecessarily rampant asset inflation in the markets and at least balance it with incentives in the hands of consumers to buy phones and if you don't break this cycle and teach new pattern of behavior we're going to be looking at a japanese-style deflationary period where we'll have ten years of unemployment the economy will just be stagnant and we'll wonder why equity markets keep going to all-time highs when it doesn't actually map to what you see in the real world on a day to day basis we would say that none of the greens actually happening when the Fed just signaled that they were going to do something you're absolutely right it would calm the markets down enough where the best companies could go and actually get the capital that they needed but then if use actually separated and look at it now the feds primary and secondary facilities aren't necessarily going to affect or help the best companies because in order to sort of all apply for these programs you need to have we need to go through a whole bunch of Hoops you need to sign up for you know supervision on executive compensation you are going to self-select at least in their primaries facility for probably the worst performing companies and when you go and buy egx if you're buying baskets of things that also contain a bunch of these zombie comes of the best companies can and will continue to self-finance in the markets by themselves and yeah you're right the Fed did calm the waters but by now actually stepping in and spending more and injecting more capital what you're going to see is the equity markets rip higher you're going to see the credit markets continue to basically go towards negative rates and none of that stuff does anything to actually fix the economy and so asset inflation we learned this from 2008 to now asset inflation does not solve income disparity it actually doesn't solve full employment it doesn't do any of the things we needed to do for it to be a robust economy what it does is allow people who play in the financial markets to make money those don't trickle down to normal people and until we actually admit that to ourselves and until we realize that this dogmatic idea that inflation is bad that's a dated idea we're not gonna move forward and so I appreciate the fact that the Fed did something I think it was critical I think it was great that they said it but now actually acting and pumping in all of this money on top of the money it's already gone in is creating a deflationary super cycle in the United States that is not helpful consumers are not going to spend they are going to save I totally agree that the current economy is completely detached from the stock market and from the reality in that matter economy will remain stagnant while the stock market will continue to go up at least in the short term but there will be reversion to the mean eventually the market will help to match with GDP level because it always helped then we will see some conversion between the markets and the econom and the stock market liberal
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