저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 테슬라 주가가 머스크의 선전(프로파간다)으로 비정상적으로 부풀려졌으며, 역사적으로 큰 평균회귀가 뒤따를 가능성이 높다고 본다. 과거 경험: 2019년 모델S를 샀지만 주식은 비싸다고 사지 않았고, 이후 주가는 약 10배 올랐다. 머스크와 주가 부풀리기: 머스크가 주식을 계속 발행·매각하고 주가를 띄워 자금을 조달해 기가팩토리를 지었다고 평가하며, '허황된 말과 카리스마'로 돈을 만들어낸다고 표현했다. 이반 크뤼게르(성냥왕) 비유: 허위 회계와 과도한 부채로 세운 제국이 1932년 붕괴한 사례를 들어, 경고성 비유로 제시했다. 다만 그랜섬이 테슬라에 사기가 있다고 명시적으로 단정한 것은 아니며, 진행자도 그런 의도는 불분명하다고 봤다. 리스크: 테슬라가 무너지면 기술주와 경제 전반에 심리적 충격이 클 것이라고 언급했다. 시장 평가: 시가총액은 어떤 자동차 회사보다 크고 마진은 하락 중이며 인도량도 둔화 조짐이 있다. 머스크는 제품을 실제로 만들어냈고 전기차 산업을 개척했다는 점은 인정된다. 공매도 세력: 짐 채노스가 오래 테슬라를 공매도해왔고 지금도 일부 유지 중이며, 과거 폭락기(2022년 약 70% 하락)에 수익을 냈을 것으로 언급됐다. 경쟁사 관점: 폭스바겐·GM이 따라잡을 것이라던 과거 예측은 빗나갔고 테슬라가 여전히 앞서 있다. 주가 전망: 2020년 말 이후 약 3년간 사실상 제자리였고, 과거 고점(400달러 이상)을 아직 회복하지 못했다. 그랜섬은 향후 수년간 횡보할 가능성(아마존·마이크로소프트 사례 유사)과 추가 상승 가능성을 모두 열어둔 채 확답하지 않았다. 그랜섬 본인은 주식시장 전체가 여전히 거대한 버블 상태라는 견해를 별도로 밝힌 바 있다. 출연자 전망 요약: 테슬라 주가는 과도하게 부풀려졌고 장기적으로 평균회귀 위험이 크지만, 단기 방향은 단정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham visitor and fund manager and Babel historian recently said in an interview that Elon Musk is a wonderful propagandist who's managed to talk Tesla stock way up and he's managed to create money out of thin air out of BS and Charisma let's see what else Grantham had to say in this recent interview with the compound and friends about Elon Musk and Tesla stock let's get into it now Grantham started with what he said was his own Tesla loser story in which he bought a car in 2019 a Model S and he thought it was the most amazing thing and he wrote that it was in a quarterly investigator so actually said how amazing it was but he said how the stock was so expensive and this was 2019 remember before that stock went nuts he said it was too expensive to buy that back then so he didn't buy it and since then he says the stock is up 10 times 10x since he said it was too expensive that's his own losers story had the car owns the car loves the car but didn't buy the stock thought it was too expensive and 10x from there and what's more this is his particular area of investing interest these days he's very interested in climate Tech early stage climate Tech he said in the interview about 70 percent of his own money is foundation's money is in this area so he saw Tesla he had a car he knew it early but he didn't buy the stock thought it was too expensive the interview hosts pointed out that part of what happened was that Wall Street analysts were Auto industry endless and they were valuing it differently from other investors especially retail investors Tech investors who were valuing Tesla as a tech company the same as other Mega tech companies so that was a big difference in valuation there he mentioned that when he first wrote that Tesla didn't have earnings they were in a cash Crunch and it was very uncertain where they would even exist in two years time Elon was sleeping in a tent he says which meaning he was sleeping on the factory floor in the factory at the time to get through and so things looked very uncertain and it looked super expensive to him in the interview they joked that who knew that issuing stock would be bullish for the stock price investors couldn't seem to get enough of it how did this happen they asked and Jeremy Grantham said that Elon is such a wonderful propagandist that he took the stock up Beyond any possibility he said Grantham said that Elon sold a lot of stock he got a lot of assets he talked the stock up he sold a lot of assets over and over again and this way he generated a lot of real buying power he manifested it and he put that into building the gigafactories he manifested it out of thin air out of BS and Charisma he said now Grantham said if you look at a company that say worth a dollar and it manages to talk its way up to ten dollars good luck he says implying that that's what Tesla's done and he said if you look back at a hundred years there's usually big mean reversion that happens after that he said one or two people have managed to do that over time but there's usually mean reversion to follow at this point Grantham pointed out another person from history who managed to will a big business into existence by talking it up and that was Ivar Kruger the match King now Kruger came to be known as the match King because in the early 20th century in the 1920s he came to control two-thirds to three-quarters of global match production Grantham is obviously comparing this guy to Elon Musk he was a Swedish civil engineer that started his career in the United States and South Africa but in 1907 he returned and founded the match company now after World War one he began expanding his business aggressively negotiating monopolies with governments all over the world he also became a major investor in other Industries like real estate construction and banking at the height of his power Kruger became one of the richest people in the world he was also highly respected in the financial Community for his business Acumen and intelligence does this sound familiar however his business Empire turned out to be built on shaky foundations he had used aggressive accounting practices to hide the true state of his finances and he was actually deeply in debt when the Great Depression hit his business Empire began to crumble and in 1932 he was found dead in his Paris apartment apparently having taken his own life after his death it was revealed that he had been engaged in massive fraud he'd used forged documents to deceive investors and creditors and his companies had been insolvent for years now although a lot of people don't know about it today the collapse of Kruger's Empire was one of the biggest Financial scandals of the 20th century and it was said to contribute to the severity of the Great Depression because it had impact on the global economy now this story is obviously a cautionary tale about how even the most successful the wealthiest most powerful people can be vulnerable to fraud and deceit now I'm not sure why Grantham brought up the story of the match King here does he think that there could be some deceit here with Tesla how eons talked up the stock price took the company into existence does he think there's something to hide that there's something being hidden the short sellers have thought that in the past we'll have to see what happens in the future it's a huge company I don't think many people think that this widespread fraud with Tesla we'll have to see if there's anything like that in the future but it's definitely a big company and if it did fall over it would have an impact definitely psychological impact on the global economy or on the U.S economy on the tech sector if Tesla went under at this point for any reason like that if it all collapsed that would not be a great thing of course he might not be implying that this widespread deceit or fraud here it might be just from that point of view that elon's managed to talk the company into existence a mega company he's managed to talk the stock up and that that's been successful as he said he's made real money and he's invested that in the gigafactories and they're pumping out so many cars at this point although there's a lot of things that Elon says that haven't come to fruition just yet and there's a lot of value in Tesla that the expectation that needs to play out the market cap is way above any car company out there and margins are slipping deliveries just came out today slipping a little bit we'll have to see what happens over the next few years it has to be said that Elon has produced the goods in terms of doing these very difficult things Tess is really responsible for the beginning of the EV industry in their way out in front it has been talking after the stock and the company is it Justified we'll have to see in years to come they've certainly producing a lot of products and people are buying them now it's at this point that Grantham mentions his friend Jim chanos who's one of the most famous short sellers in the world he's been shorting Tesla for a long time understand is still shorting tested but to a lesser extent it's been very critical of the company on the way up of Elon talking the stock up and he continues to be that way even today Grantham said that channels bet that selling 5 billion more shares would not have the reaction of the share price doubling and channels has lost a lot of money along the way although in 2022 it has to be said that Tesla's share price did go down quite a lot nearly 70 percent so he probably did okay out of that during that year but I think he's still short Grantham said that the Bulls just said oh look they're doing a secondary offering and Elon can walk on water and they drove the price Higher and Higher and he said it must be maddening for those shorting the stock betting against it or even for those on the sidelines watching this happen Grantham said that if you go back a few years there are Tesla critics saying just wait there are VW and GM that are just gearing up who have decades and Decades of experience of ramping up of scaling up that they'll catch up that they'll come back but it hasn't happened yet Tesla has just been kicking their butts since then and still what do you think do you think that Tesla will continue to kick the butts of the other companies as far as EVS are concerned do you think there's some deceit or hype involved there with Elon talking the stock up do you think it will come to an end it does have to be said that I noticed today that we're coming up in December to three years with a stock will have basically gone nowhere Net Zero since late 2020 the price hangs around where it is now it would have gone nowhere for three years will it be the same as say Microsoft or Amazon where the stock really didn't go anywhere for quite a long time could it be five years or more where the stock goes nowhere because the market Cap's so big there was such a huge run up it got over four hundred dollars it's never got back to that yet or will a stock continue up say when the Cyber truck comes out well FSD work will I keep going up what do you think let me know in the comments let me know on X let me know on YouTube comments what you think about the Tesla price will it continue is it due for another ramp up or will it just say stagnant or even go down what do you think now the previous Grantham video where he talks about how he thinks the stock market it's still in a major bubble although it's declining and here I'm going to put a link to the previous Tesla video talking about the price Cuts lately and the margin drops and I'll put those in the description as well in the show notes thanks for watching or listening this time and I'll see you in the next one
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