저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년 3월 기준 미국 증시가 강세 사이클에 있다고 주장. 과거 S&P500 패턴(11월~2월 4개월 연속 상승 시 이후 상승 확률 100%), 17년 강세 사이클, ZBT 지표 활성화 등을 근거로 SOXL 9백만엔 매수를 정당화. 과거 데이터상 3~6개월 구간 평균 약 -4% 조정 가능성도 언급했으나 낙관 유지, 연말까지 SOXL 대폭 상승(2.5~2.8배) 가능성을 제시. 본인 스스로 '순수한 환상'이라 단서를 달았다.
다듬은 글
In this soaring market, which seemed predetermined from the start, I, a greedy and incompetent investor, was aiming to sell high and buy low, hoping to catch another big profit. However, realizing that this was a foolish investment strategy in this bullish market, I sold my SxL, and 13 trading days later, on March 1st, I returned and purchased another 9 million yen worth of SxL.
As of the end of Friday's trading, my investment balance was 1479. I also did a live broadcast of my SxL purchase, and there were many others who purchased at the same time as me. Friday was truly a bombardment, so I am currently in the black, with a profit of 570,000 yen. This is about the size of a bonus that fell from 10, but I didn't buy SxL just to take profits of 500,000 yen, so I will continue to hold on.
However, I wanted to talk about the possibility that it will rise even further from here this year, and that the 9 million yen worth of SxL I currently have invested could potentially expand to 50,000 yen next year. So, I'd like to get straight to the point and talk about how this year's US stock market is going to be crazy.
In the previous video, I talked about the reasons why I decided to buy, and I mentioned that in the past, when the SNP allocation has risen for four consecutive months from November of the previous year to February of the following year, it has shown excellent performance up to February of the following year.
I've picked out the years in the past when this condition was met, and when the condition is met, the performance in March is also excellent, with a probability of rising of 78.6%, so I'm also optimistic about March 2024. But putting March aside for a moment, if we look at the past SNP returns from February to the end of the year, we can see that the SNP allocation has risen with 100% probability.
In other words, I bought 9 million yen worth of SOXL on March 1st, and if 2024 follows the same pattern as in the past, there is a 100% probability that it will show a positive return by the end of the year and into February of next year. Moreover, since 1950, the annual rate of change for the SNP allocation has been said to be around 9%.
The average return from February to the end of the year, when the conditions were met in the past, was an impressive 14.9%, which is significantly higher than the average return for the past year, achieved in a shorter period. Moreover, as I've said many times, this strongest period has just begun. And an important point not to forget is that we are currently in a strong 17-year market cycle.
Dividing the market into 17-year periods from 1931 to the present, bullish and bearish markets have alternated, and we are currently in a bullish market cycle. Picking out the cities that met these conditions in the past and were in a bullish market cycle, we find that there were 11 such cities. This indicates that this signal is a bullish signal, and we can see that many signals are flashing within a bullish market cycle.
Looking at the returns up to the end of the year for the past 11 years when these conditions were met within a strong market cycle, the average has risen even further to $15.95. You might be tempted to jump in and say, "What?!" but that's right, this signal is truly the strongest. So, I couldn't ignore this signal either, so I bought 9 million yen worth.
Next, looking at the results of the past 11 NEXTMON events, which have strongly responded within the market cycle, the past 14 NEXTMON events, that is, from now until February of next year, have an average return of +17.4% and a median return of +16.4%. However, if we focus only on strong market cycles, we can exclude the dragging years of 1971 and 2004, so the average return is 18.75% and the median return is +18%.
Congratulations to all the losers in the US stock family! In the past, if a strong market cycle records a continuous rise from November to February, the P500 will rise by about +18% in the following year, and if the SP rises by +18% from the price at the end of February, it will break through 6000 points by February of next year.
Given the possibility that the S&P 500 will rise by 18%, how much will Soxl rise in one year? While this is a simple calculation, let's examine the return of Soxl during the period when the S&P index rose by approximately 18%. From November 2nd of last year to February 29th, the S&P index rose by 18%, and during this period, Soxl rose by a remarkable 183.
This means that if you buy Soxl now, you have a chance to increase your assets 2.8 times by February of next year. I currently have roughly 9 million yen invested in Soxl, and 2.5 times 9 million yen is 2.4 million yen, meaning there's a possibility of exceeding 20 million yen with Soxl alone by next year.
If I aggressively add more from here, there's even a possibility of exceeding 30 million yen. Furthermore, if Tesla recovers and Bitcoin surges ahead of its halving, and there's a frenzy of gains, my assets could increase by 2025. It's possible that the dream of exceeding 50 million yen might come true.
However, this is just pure fantasy, so please take it with a grain of salt. But it shows that we can be optimistic about the future of US stocks, and that SOXL has the potential to skyrocket. And it's not just a coincidence that the AP amount showed a positive return in February and that a bullish signal has been lit up now.
I've been saying since last year that a strong market is coming in 2024, and one of the reasons for this is the ZBT indicator. Some of you may already know about it, but to put it simply, this indicator is activated when many stocks rise from oversold levels to overbought levels in the short term. I've picked out the years in the past when this indicator was activated, and if you look at the returns 6 months and 1 year after the signal was triggered, in every year the stock price rose with 100% probability, resulting in a bombing run.
The fact that the signal turned over on November 3rd last year means that the bombing market will continue until November of this year. We can make the judgment that there is a high probability of this happening. And in a previous video, I talked about how if the SP rises by more than 1% from the day the zbt indicator is activated until 3 months later, the surge will continue.
This time, from the signal flip to February 3rd, 3 months later, the SP has risen by 13.7%, so the signal for a surge in the market has been lit. If we look at the return 3 months after the 1% or more rise 3 months after the signal flip, we can see that stock prices are rising in every city. In other words, US stocks have risen quite steadily from November 3rd last year until February 3rd, 3 months later, and they will continue to rise even further until May 3rd, 3 months later, that is, until Golden Week.
So, all of you in the Ponkotu family are sure to have a happy Golden Week. However, the next thing we in the Ponkotu family have to think about is when to buy more, and I am currently thinking about this as well. I have some surplus funds on standby, so I'd like to explore the next conversation, but this time I'd like to use the strongest ZBT indicator as a reference to see if there is a timing when the venue will come.
So let's take a look, but if the ZBT indicator rises by more than +1% within 3 months after it is activated, the stock price will rise again within another 3 months, so you might think there is no buying opportunity, but if we look at the maximum decline rate in the period from 1 month to 6 months after the indicator is activated, in 1950 the maximum decline was -4.8% from 3 months (October) to 6 months (January), in 1962 the maximum decline rate from 3 months to 6 months after the indicator was activated was -6.24%, in 1975 it was -1.42%, in 1982 it was -2.98 yen it was -4.27%, and in 2019 it was -5.2%.
In other words, in the past the average decline in the period from 3 months to 6 months after activation was -4.15. In the central area, it fell by -4.54%, so it's not as if there were absolutely no visitors to the venue. The SP allocation fell by about 4%, so it's possible that this time too, it will fall by about -4% by May.
But will there be any conversation? Incidentally, in 2019, soxl was in operation, so I'd like to check how much the SP allocation fell during the period when it was down -5.23%, and soxl fell by about -35% during that period. So, even if the ZBT indicator, which is the strongest signal in the past, was activated, there were visitors, so perhaps in 2024, there might be visitors by Golden Week, but as I mentioned in the previous video, in the past, when there were four consecutive months of increases from November to February, the maximum decline rate of the SNP amount from the end of February to the end of the year was about -2% on average, so if we refer to this data, it would seem that there are almost no visitors, but which data will you believe when you invest?
The only thing I can say is that whether the venue comes or not, based on past data, the signs for 2024 are definitely bullish. However, even if the venue doesn't come and a big drop occurs instead, there's absolutely no need to be bearish, and I intend to keep going aggressively until February of next year.
If you'd like to join me in this blitz and become super rich, please give me a thumbs up! I also post trading updates on Instagram, so if you're interested, !
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