저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500이 2월 9일 15주 내 20% 급등 후 신고가를 경신한 조건이 과거 5년 사례와 유사하다며, 과거 데이터상 3주 내 하락·최대 낙폭 중앙값 약 -5~6% 및 저점까지 약 13거래일을 근거로 2월 말~3월 초 저점을 예상. 2021년 패턴 반복을 가정해 SOXL 목표가를 약 24달러로 제시하고 SOXS 매도 후 SOXL에 전액 투자하겠다고 밝힘. 화자는 이 예측이 매우 나쁜 예측이므로 따라 하지 말라고 경고.
다듬은 글
On February 14th, the market recovered from the sharp decline of the previous day, and as I am currently creating this video, it is 5 AM on February 15th, so the market is not yet closed. This is my clumsy portfolio, and with the addition of a new clumsy member, soxs, soxl rebounded on this day, so SOXS, which had a profit of over 6%, has fallen to 0.7%, but I still plan to hold on.
Meanwhile, the bombardment by Mara continues, and the Mara I recently purchased in my specific account is up 68, and the Mara I bought in Shinrin Sabaku is up 41, for a total profit of 98 yen, resulting in an investment amount of 335 yen, which is a short-term bombardment. I did n't buy Mara to make around 1 million yen in the correct new member's slot, so I would like to hold on even if the market falls sharply from here to March.
Up until now, when trading soxl and soxs, I have referred to various usages and data, but among the various data, the data I am currently paying the most attention to is this. On February 9th, &py rose 20% within 15 weeks, meeting the condition of surpassing the previous week's high and setting a new record.
The returns shown here are from years in the past when this condition was met. In all past years, S 's P declined 100% within 3 weeks, and based on past data, S's P will not exceed the February 9th level at the end of the week until March 1st. Therefore, I have judged that the 3-week period is the crucial period, and I would like to sell soxs during this period, but let's put that aside for now.
This time, I would like to check how much S's P might decline in the future based on this data. So let's take a look at the possible decline rate. The return shown in the rightmost row shows the maximum decline rate that occurred from the week in which the condition was met to 12 weeks later. In 2021, the condition was met on February 12th, and the maximum decline rate was - 5.371979635710566,100.24749755859375 8.24 In 1983 it was -5.15 In 1980 it was -3.94% And the average decline rate for these past 5 years is -6.24% The median is -5.371979635710566,100.24749755859375 From the level on February 9th it fell to 4713 points, and if it continues to decline along the median, it will fall to around 4750 points, which means that SP will fall to the level it was at around mid-December.
However, looking at the maximum decline rate for each of the past 5 years, there has never been a year in which a decline of more than -10% occurred, and even in 2020, which had the largest decline rate, it was -8.510.0 From last year to the present, there has been an average annual drop of around -10%, and looking back at history, a drop of around -10% will occur at some point in 2024.
I predicted that this drop would occur from the high in February to March, but from the median, it has only dropped by about 5%, so some people are saying that a crash is about to begin. Unfortunately, not only has a crash not begun, but a drop of more than 10% has not occurred, so even if you wait for a drop of more than 10% and aim for a low, that drop will not come, and there is a high possibility that you will miss out on a strong market after the low.
Therefore, without expecting a big drop, I would like to invest more than 10 million yen in soxl at the next venue, but in the past five years, how many days after the conditions were met did the stock price hit its low? So I would like to torture the past data right away, but in 2021 the conditions were met on February 12th The stock price has been declining, and the lowest point was reached on March 4th, which is the 13th trading day.
In 2020, the lowest point was reached 17 trading days after the conditions were met on August 28th. In 1987, the lowest point was reached on the 32nd trading day from April 3rd, 1983 on the 6th trading day, and 1980 on the 4th trading day. Therefore, based on this data, the longest period from the day the conditions were met to the lowest point was 32 trading days in 1987.
If we assume that the lowest point will be reached on the 32nd trading day from February 9th, 2024, the lowest point will be reached by the end of March at the latest, and even if a downtrend begins from here, it will not last for a long period of time. The average time from the day the conditions were met to the lowest point in the past 5 times is 14 trading days, and the median is 13 trading days.
Based on this historical data, the median and average have all been roughly the same period for reaching the lowest point. It has become clear that the stock price is following the same pattern as before, hitting a low on the 13th trading day from February 9th. If it hits a low on the last day of February, the 29th, then according to the average, it will hit a low on March 1st.
Therefore, I am planning to sell my current holdings of SOXS by February 31st, aiming for the right timing, and then invest all my assets into SOXS L around February 31st. As you may have already noticed, the median time it takes from meeting the conditions to hitting a low is 13 trading days, and the year for which the median is shown is 2021.
The median of the maximum decline over the past five years that I mentioned earlier is also 221. In other words, if the stock price moves along the same median pattern as in the past, we will see a development similar to that of 2021. I have mentioned many times before that we may see a repeat of 2021, so please watch that video for a more detailed explanation.
However, since the previous midpoint was 2021, if we consider the developments of 2021 again, I would like to see what kind of stock price movements we can expect going forward. So, as I introduced in the video, if we consider the possibility of a repeat of 2021, 2024 will be quite similar to 2021. From the low in October 2020, the S&P 500 rose by +14 by the end of the year, and from the low in October 2023 to the end of 2023, the return was +15%, showing very similar trends.
Not only the S&P 500, but also the rate of increase of SOXL is quite similar. From October of last year to its current high on February 9th, SOXL has risen by +195, but from the low in October 2020 to the high in February 2021, it rose by +198. So, we can see that SOXL has recorded almost the same rate of increase.
And in the S&P chart, 2020 If we draw a trend line connecting the low point in October and the price on the day of the low point in March 2021, we get this line. In a previous video, I mentioned that if we draw the same trend line starting from the low point in October 2023, and the 2021 trend unfolds as it did, the stock price could fall to the trend line.
In 2021, the condition was met on February 12th, with a 20% increase within 15 weeks, and in 2024, the condition is met on February 9th. Assuming that February 12th, 2021 is February 9th, 2024, and the historical midpoint is -5.371979635710566,100.24749755859375, assuming the low point continues on the 9th...
5.371979635710566,100.24749755859375 From this point of view, the biggest drop of 2021 may really be coming. So, as we, the clumsy family, will not be investing in the SNP500, I would like to talk about the decline rate of SOXL and the Kaifu. In 2021, the SP quota met the condition of a 20% increase over 15 weeks on February 12th, and from February 12th to the low in March, we can draw a trend line, and assuming that SOXL falls by 3900 as in 2021 and hits a low on February 29th, it will be exactly at the level to touch the trend line.
Therefore, if this development occurs, the next excellent venue for SXR will be around $24. So, I'm thinking of setting my target price at $24 and investing all my assets into soxl at that time, aiming for the end of February to the beginning of March. However, the market fluctuates daily, so naturally I will change my forecast accordingly.
At this stage, I believe the target price is around $24, but I will torture the numbers again to see if soxl will actually fall to this level and come to a final conclusion. However, the worst-case scenario would be missing the opportunity to buy near the low by aiming too hard for the bottom, so I'm also thinking of taking a "give me the tail" approach and buying in a lump sum when it has fallen about 35% from the level of February 9th.
So, I will solidify my next strategy. However, this is a terrible prediction, so although some people have already said they will copy it, you absolutely must not copy it. Please keep that in mind. And what may come soon... If you enjoyed this great conversation and want to invest your capital and seize the opportunity to bombard the market with me in 2024, please give me a thumbs up!
I also post all my trading updates on Instagram, so please come and check it out if you're interested. !
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