저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 최근 연속 상승 후 이미 고점 근처라고 주장하며, 작년 7~8월 패턴과 유사하다는 근거를 든다. SOXL·TECL은 큰 수익 후 하락 가능성을 언급하고, 60거래일 주기 추세전환 데이터를 근거로 1월 25~26일 이후 하락을 예상한다. 발언자는 본인이 나쁜 투자자라며 따라 하지 말라고 강조하고, SOXL은 2월 6일까지 보유 예정이라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
The recent record of consecutive gains is due to several factors: US manufacturing PMI is up 15 months, US services PMI is at its highest level in 7 months, new home sales are up 8%, and consumer confidence has risen significantly. As a result, stock prices are rising as people perceive the news as genuine, and the upward trend continues.
However, as long as I hold Tesla, my assets will decrease. On the other hand, after the earnings announcement, there is a significant drop every year, resulting in a crash of -12.13, with a loss of -3.818% from the previous day, and an unrealized gain of 49.61. My total assets are 1542. And here is my pathetic portfolio: SOXL rose to around $399 at one point, but eventually fell to $37, resulting in an unrealized gain of 178.46%.
My investment amount of 330,000 yen is 551. Tecl also recorded a rise of over $80 at one point, but fell to $78, resulting in an unrealized gain of 69.77%. My investment amount of 280,000 yen has become 650,000 yen, and I've been beaten so badly that my unrealized profit/loss is now 43,000 yen. I've realized once again how little sense I have in investing, and I would never want to imitate such a useless investor, so please, whatever you do, don't try to imitate such a clumsy amateur.
Last Friday the 19th, in a YouTube live before the market opened, I said that the current market is quite similar to last year's market, and if stock prices continue to move in the same way as last year, the S &P 500 will rise to near its highs by the end of next week. From last Thursday to this Thursday, it has risen for 5 consecutive days, and the S&P 500 has surged by 2.37, so it is clear that this week is moving in the same way as last year.
From the low in October to the present, the S&P 500 has risen by 18.87%, and last year, the day it rose by about 18.87% from the low in March was July 19th. Therefore, assuming that July 19th of last year is the current date, we can see that the S&P 500 has already risen to near its high. Looking at the closing prices from July 19th, we can see that it hit its high on July 30th, eight trading days later.
This means that the S&P 500 could potentially hit a new high between January 25th and February 6th, eight trading days later. As such, it seems that many people have already sold and locked in their profits, which surprises me as many of you have already done. I have also made plans to lock in my profits and sell.
In a previous video, I predicted that the market would hit a new high on February 5th, assuming the same market development as last year. Since posting that video, the scenario has not fallen apart and has progressed smoothly. Calculating the high from now, it still hits its high on February 6th, so my wildly deluded scenario hasn't completely collapsed.
However, just because the S&P 500 hits a new high doesn't necessarily mean that 3x leveraged bulls like SOXL and TECL will also hit new highs. It's not that I'm going to sell, so deciding on the timing of the sale will be a very difficult decision. However, assuming that it is currently July 19th, if we look at the stock price movement of tecl last year, we can see that tecl had already reached its peak on July 19th last year.
I talked about this point in a previous video, and assuming that it is currently July 19th, it fell by -6% the day after reaching its peak, so there is a possibility that a large drop will occur on January 26th. Therefore, if tecl continues to move in the same way as in the past, it has already reached its peak, so there is a possibility that it will fall from here, and I feel that this might be a good opportunity to switch from tecl to soxl.
However, by the time I post this video, I may have already sold my tecl. Will tecl reach its peak on January 25th and will a downward trend begin from there? Next, I would like to look at the price movement of soxl after July 19th, and soxl is showing price movements that are relatively similar to the P frame of S, and the day after July 19th it fell by approximately After a significant 11% drop, it seemed like SxL would continue to decline like Tecl, but just eight trading days later on July 19th, the stock price rose again, reaching a new high.
So, it's astonishing how closely the current market mirrors last year's market. However, looking at the recent RSI and last year's SxL RSI, last year the RSI was lower than its high, while SxL was rising. The RSI broke through the 70 line, which indicates an overbought condition, completing the first large peak.
Then, as the RSI declined, a second smaller peak formed. Around this time, SxL was falling, and the third peak was completed at a lower level than the first, showing a bearish divergence, while SxL was rising. Assuming it's currently July 19th, the third peak was completed and the price was in the decline phase.
We can see that when the fourth peak is completed, SxL will have reached a new high, so up to this point, the market has moved in the same way as in the past. If soxl continues to follow a similar pattern, a significant drop will occur on January 26th, with both the stock price and RSI hitting their lowest points.
Eight trading days later, the stock price will rise, and the RSI will have completed its fourth peak. Therefore, I am prepared for a drop on Friday, January 26th, and will hold onto soxl in anticipation of the subsequent upward trend. However, if the stock price falls sharply after the large drop on January 25th without rising for eight trading days, I will not be able to sell near the high, and selling during a decline would be a waste.
In that case, my plan to sell soxl will fail, and I will have to hold it. However, since I have already sold tcl, if my plan to transfer all of those funds to soxl is successful, I will consider it a success. This is the style of investment I would like to pursue. Will Sxl rise in the coming week and by February 6th, and will the disastrous scenario be completed?
Incidentally, the S&P 500 has already hit a high. There is a possibility that SOXL may also plummet from here, and I would like to talk about that next. Some of you may be thinking, "Whoa, don't say such scary things out of nowhere," but I am a terrible investor, so I would like you not to imitate me.
I will try to predict US stocks from various angles, and then I would like you to make your own investment decisions. Looking at US stocks from various perspectives, here is a chart of the P-frame from February 2, 2023 to the present, with vertical lines drawn on it. The vertical lines are not drawn randomly, but lines are drawn approximately every 60 trading days.
Up until now, the S&P 500 has reversed its trend approximately every 60 trading days. The downtrend started on February 2, 2023, and after hitting a low, it rose, but until May 1, 60 trading days later, the P-frame was down 0.28%, and the maximum decline during this period was -7.75. After the end of the previous period, an upward trend began on May 1st, and the P value rose to a high of 10.10 until July 31st, 62 trading days later.
Therefore, it can be seen that since February 2023, the SNP range has been alternating between weak and strong markets approximately every 60 trading days, resulting in trend reversals. Then, from July 31st, a weak market returned, and from July 31st to October 27th, 63 trading days later, the price fell by -10.28, indicating a sharp trend reversal.
After approximately 60 trading days, an upward trend resumed from October 27th, and the stock price has risen sharply until now. However, the 60th trading day on October 27th is Thursday, January 25th, so based on past trends, the upward trend will soon end and a downward trend will begin. At the latest, the trend has reversed within 63 trading days, so the upward trend will end and a downward trend will begin on January 30th.
And if we refer to this data, it is highly likely that the upward trend of soxl has already ended. This is the same as the P frame of S with a vertical line drawn on the same day, and soxl's trend also changes neatly every 60 trading days, from February 2nd to May 1st it was -18%, from May 1st to July 31st it was positive 94%, and from July 31st to October 27th it was negative 46%.
So, similar to SP5, soxl's trend also changes every 60 trading days, and as of January 25th it has already been 60 trading days since October 27th, soxl has risen 1046%, but if we refer to this data, the end of the rise is almost here, and a downward trend will begin from here. In other words, according to this data, if we assume that January 25th, the 60th trading day, was the high, there is a possibility that the trend will change from here and start to decline, and February 6th, the day I plan to sell soxl, is the 8th trading day since January 25th, so the downward trend has already begun It has entered a period where it is possible that it will fall below the current level.
Therefore, depending on what data you believe in when predicting US stocks, you can make completely different predictions, which is one of the interesting aspects of investing. What will you believe in? I have told you at least 250 times that the current market is very similar to last year's market, and US stocks are currently moving in that direction.
So, if I were to betray this scenario and sell soxl on the 60th trading day because the trend will reverse, it might turn out to be the right decision in the end, but I think I will stick to the data I have believed in up to this point and see it through until my delusional scenario collapses. Therefore, I will hold SXR until February 6th, but even if my delusional scenario collapses, I will have no regrets.
Bring on the decline, and if it falls hard I will sell, and I will invest the funds from tcl and the surplus money I have saved up so far. And I hope you will join me in bombing in 2024 as well. If you'd like to try and grab it, please click the "They Good" button. Thank you for sticking with my little skit until the end today. See you in the next video!
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