저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
2월 S&P500 4개월 연속 상승 등 과거 계절성 데이터를 근거로 3월 상승을 강하게 전망. SOXS 손절 후 SOXL 약 900만엔 매수. RSI 약세 다이버전스 해소와 추세선 돌파를 근거로 제시. 말미에 자신의 예측이 빗나갈 수 있다는 자기 고백 포함. 2월 말 대비 연말까지 조정폭이 작았던 과거 14개 사례를 제시.
다듬은 글
As the February market closed, the strongest signal appeared, and there was a lot of other data indicating a future surge. However, when predicting US stocks in the short term, there was a risk of decline, so I invested over 10 million yen in yen in a lump sum, preparing for the next market. But I wondered if this was really the right thing to do, if it really was, if waiting was the right course of action.
No, that's not right. This is not the time to be holding bearish products, not to be having fun, I concluded that I should buy with all my might right now. So, before the market opened on Friday, I decided to buy soxl and cut my losses on soxs, and I made the decision to run the trade live. If I had realized what was important earlier, I could have bought bearish products cheaply in the latter half of February and sold them earlier.
In the end, it was a complete disaster, and I regret my foolish judgment. There is a lot of data out there, and I think there were probably some people who found the data I introduced helpful, but I apologize. I will use this experience to my advantage and continue to work hard so that I can definitely achieve my goal of becoming a profitable investor.
I'd like to share my portfolio for the first time in a while. I bought about 9 million yen worth of soxl as soon as the market opened last night, and I still have some reserves left, so this isn't a full calculation, but as of March 1st, my unrealized profit/loss is +2.11 million yen at a rate of 1.03, and my total assets are 1479.
This is my rather poor portfolio. After I bought soxl, the oil market was held, so I bought 5.53559875488281,139.47300720214844 . Mana also fell sharply the day before, but recovered slightly on March 1st, and my unrealized profit/ loss is 30%, with an investment of 380,000 yen. However, Tesla is flying so low that you want to ask, "What are you doing for so long?", while other stocks are soaring at a festival, but I'm only managing a small profit of 0.38%.
With the rise, the unrealized gains and losses are hovering around 100%, so my shoddy portfolio is about to be completed, and I hope you'll look forward to seeing what the results will be. So, without further ado, I'd like to talk about why I suddenly bought nearly 10 million yen worth of stocks and why I changed my forecast.
First of all, the reason for the current booming market is undoubtedly NVDI, as you all know, which is driving the market. In years with a presidential re-election, the stock tends to peak in February and then decline towards March, but this shows the return of the SNP allocation for February of this year.
Looking at the market after February 12th, the stock price peaked on February 12th and then declined, but then it rose sharply with Evir's earnings report, and February turned into a positive return. However, if Evir's earnings report had been even slightly worse, the stock price would have moved downwards, and I think it would have definitely followed the same pattern as in the past, peaking in February and then declining.
However, N. Billia's earnings report was so spectacular that it completely blew away the anomaly. Unlike past trends where the stock price peaked in February and then declined, it showed a positive return on the last day of February, ending the month at a new record high. This positive return in February is a very important point, as it became a turning point in predicting the future of US stocks.
The fact that it recorded a positive return in February means that, as I mentioned in a previous video, S's P-value recorded a positive return for four consecutive months from November of last year. This four-month consecutive rise is the strongest signal, and here we have picked out the years in which the A 3p value rose for four consecutive months from November to February of the following year.
The first point to note is the return in March. In the 14 years that met the past conditions, only 3 years recorded a negative return in March, and in the remaining 11 years, it recorded a positive return in March. In other words, February 2024 also recorded a positive return, marking four consecutive months of increases.
Therefore, the probability of an increase in the S P frame in March of this year is 78.6, with an average return of +2.1 and a median of +2.4, which proves that March of this year is a very strong season. So, are you investing poorly? If not now, when? Are you investing based on past data? You missed the rise in the latter half of February, and with strong data for March, are you going to miss the rise in March as well?
The investment gods are telling me this, and despite the past telling us that a strong market may be coming, I wonder if it's really okay not to buy now. So, I looked at the past data in more detail, and another part of me decided that I should buy now, ignoring all other data. Next, I would like to talk about the reasons for my purchase decision.
I thought that after four consecutive months of massive increases from November of last year, there might be a period of stagnation, but the past 14 cities that met the conditions saw a large increase from the end of February. No decline has occurred, and in fact, looking at the return from the end of February to the end of the year, there have been three instances where the price at the end of February was the lowest point.
And, using the end-of-February price as a baseline, if we examine how much the price per share (S) fell by the end of the year, the average drop from the last day of February to the year's lowest point was -2.08, with a median of -1.41. Therefore, looking at the average median of the past 14 periods, it can be seen that when there are four consecutive months of increases, there is almost no correction from the end of February to the end of the year.
Even the period with the largest decline was 7.14 in 2004. Of course, there is a possibility of a decline of around -7% from the end of February to the lowest point, as in 2004, but there has never been a city where a decline of -10% occurred from the end of February to the end of the year. Based on past data, the probability of a -10% decline from the current stage to the end of the year is 0%, and the probability of a decline of -5% or more is 0%.
The probability of a drop of 14.3% to 3% or more is 28.6. This means that the probability of a drop of more than -3% from the end of February to the end of 2024 is less than 30%, indicating that the possibility of a significant drop, or even a minor correction, is extremely low. Therefore, the fact that it rose for four consecutive months from November to February is not a trick, but the strongest signal.
Despite the short-term risks, I trusted the past data and sold my soxs with Guppabaiba Gold and then purchased 9 million yen worth of soxl. However, I have been talking about this strongest signal in my videos for the past few days, and a positive return in February was almost certain by the end of the month, so I should have noticed this data sooner.
If I had trusted this data, I could have bought soxl in the latter half of February. I am full of regrets right at the start of the new year, but if the SP limit drops by about 2%, there is a non- zero possibility that SxL could drop by -1% to -20%, so I did not buy everything at once. I made a purchase on March 1st with some reserves left, so ideally, if the price starts to decline from here, I'll be able to buy more with my remaining reserves, which would be great.
However, as I've mentioned many times in the past, the price has only fallen by about -2% on average and about -1% on average from the end of February to the end of the year, so there's a possibility that it won't fall at all. In that case, I'll be disappointed and will make additional purchases. One piece of data that makes me think there's a high possibility of the price falling is the bearish divergence that I've mentioned many times in previous videos, which is about to be resolved.
To put it simply, a bearish divergence is a phenomenon where the stock price and the RSI move in opposite directions. A bearish divergence is a period during which the RSI declines while the stock price is rising. Last July, a bearish divergence occurred and the stock price fell afterward, but a bearish divergence is a sign that the stock price will fall afterward.
This shows the daily RSI for S's P-frame during the period of decline from July to October of last year. The RSI has been trending downwards after reaching its highs, indicating a bearish divergence. Last year, the RSI failed to break above the line connecting the high and the price, and the stock price subsequently plummeted.
The recent SNP chart also shows the bearish Dabar Cafe pattern resolving. This is a magnified view of the current daily RSI, which had been trending downwards from its highs, but on March 1st, it broke above the trend line and rose. In other words, the trend is about to reverse, and the bearish signs are about to be resolved.
This is the daily RSI for SOX, and like the S-frame, SOX has also broken above the trend line and risen. Some of you may think that SOX is not very reliable because it is leveraged. Looking at the RSI of soxx, a non-leveraged reaction ETF, we can see that the soxx RSI has also broken above the trend line, indicating that the bearish divergence is about to be resolved.
I never expected it to break above the trend line, but it shows that the market is currently very bullish, and there is a possibility that this bullish market will continue until the end of the year. In this situation, I thought that this was not the time to be buying soxx as a game, but rather the time to take a gamble.
However, my gamble ended in a crushing defeat, and I ended up buying 9 million yen worth of soxl. So this video is a crushing defeat, but if you would like to join me in trying to double your money by the end of the year, please give it a thumbs up. Thank you for sticking with my farce until the end today, and I look forward to seeing you in the next video.
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