저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
ZBT 지표 재점화(2023.11.3 두 번째 신호)를 근거로 S&P500이 향후 6~12개월 강세를 보일 것으로 주장. 1962·1963년 유사 패턴과 비교해 6개월 +20%, 1년 +24.8%를 제시. SOXL은 2027년 초까지 최대 480% 상승 가능성을 언급하며 3월 중순 이후 공격적 매수를 권유.
다듬은 글
I create videos on Sundays, so I'll post the results of Monday's trading tomorrow. By the time I post this video, I think CEO Jin Su-hwan will already be speaking at the event where Vilia is playing, discussing new products and the future direction of AI. If the stock price falls due to Vilia's event plus the FOMC meeting this week, I plan to invest all of my surplus funds available for purchase in March this week, leaving me with zero funds to buy more until my April paycheck, and then buy more with my April paycheck.
I will provide updates on my purchases via YouTube Live, or on Instagram if YouTube Live is not possible. In this video, I'd like to talk about how there are currently very bullish signs, how long this bullish period might last, how high Soxl might rise during that period, and how much you need to invest in Soxl now to become a sender.
First, let's talk about the ZBT indicator that I introduced in the video two videos ago. Let me explain, but the ZBT indicator signals when many stocks have fallen to oversold levels in a short period of time, and then many stocks have risen to oversold levels. In the past, the SNP return after six months and one year from the signal has been 100%.
The ZBT indicator lit up in November of last year, so US stocks are currently trading in a strong signal. Last year, the SNP rose by more than 1% in the three months from when the ZBT indicator was activated until February 3rd. If we pick out cities that have risen by more than 1% three months after the ZBT indicator was activated in the past, we can see that they have continued to rise quite strongly afterward.
In this case, a rise of 1% in three months from the signal was triggered means that we can expect considerable gains from now until May 3rd, six months from now, and November 3rd, twelve months from now, as I mentioned in a previous video. And in 2023, the Thatbity indicator will be on March 31st of the year.
This year has been unusual in that the ZBT indicator appeared twice on November 3rd. Historically, the only other time the ZBT indicator appeared twice in one year was in 1962, when the first signal appeared on July 11th and the second on November 5th. Historically, this is only the second time the ZBT indicator has appeared twice in one year, making it a very rare occurrence.
This time, we will compare the stock prices from 1962, when the ZBT indicator appeared twice in a year, with the current stock prices to predict the future of US stocks. In 2023, the return three months after the second signal appeared on November 3rd was +13.7%, while in 1962, the return three months after the second ZBT indicator appeared was + 13.8%.
This shows that the rate of increase in both cases is quite similar. Moreover, both years saw signals appear within strong 17-year market cycles, and coincidentally, both years saw signals appear in the first half of November, which makes one wonder if we might be seeing a repeat of 1962. Here, we see the price movement from November 5, 1962, when the zvd indicator was activated, to February, three months later.
Similar to 2024, the S P box rose sharply during this period without any significant declines that could be called corrections. In 1963, there was a 3.6% decline after reaching a high in February, but in 2024, there were no major declines, and the price rose by 13.8% by February 5, three months after the signal was activated.
Therefore, looking at the returns from the second activation of the zbt indicator to three months later, which is historically rare, we can see that 2024 and 1963 are quite similar. If it reaches its maximum, I would like to see what kind of price movement the S&P 500 will show. So let's go. First, I would like to check the return of the ZVD indicator from November 5, 1962, to 6 months later.
The S&P 500 rose by 20% in 6 months, and if you ask whether there was a big drop during this period, the answer is no, with the maximum drop being 3.6% from February to March. So, since it has shown a very similar trend up to this point, if it is a repeat of 1963, there is a high possibility that it will rise from here to May 3, 6 months later, without a big drop occurring.
Next, I would like to check the return of the ZVT indicator from November 5, 1962, to 1 year later. Here it is. In this year, the S&P has risen by 24.8%, which is almost 25%, but as I introduced in a previous video, the ZBT indicator is in a strong 17-year cycle. When it is activated, it tends to rise even more strongly than the overall return, and in a previous video I mentioned that the average return was +25.3, but that was a calculation error, and the correct average return is 2700, so the 25% return from November 5, 1962, one year later is the return that can be targeted from this signal inversion to November 3, 2024, one year later.
And the point to note is that in the year since the signal inversion, the SP has not experienced a single drop of -10%. There is data that the SP amount from 1928 to 2023 will always experience a drop of -10% on average once a year, but we must not forget that in the year since the ZV indicator, known as the strongest signal in a year, was activated, the stock price rose sharply without a single drop of -10%.
And in the year since the thatV indicator was activated, there has been no major correction, and the price has risen sharply. The SNP continued to rise steadily throughout the year, and surprisingly, in the following year, 1964, the SNP continued to rise without experiencing a minus 10% drop. This shows the price movement of the SNP from November 5, 1962, when the Zelli indicator lit up, to 1966, three years later.
The timing of the minus 10% drop was two years later, in 1965. So, although the SNP amount fell by -3% to 5%, there was no major decline, and it continued to rise for two years. Two years later, the minus 10% drop finally occurred, but even with the minus 10% drop, the stock price quickly rebounded and rose again.
From March 1963 to the beginning of 1966, the SNP amount rose by a whopping 40%. And now, four months have passed since it was activated last November, and just like in 1963, we have reached March. Assuming that the SNP value increases by 40% with only one negative 10% drop occurring between March 2024 and 2027 (approximately 3 years), we, the Poco family, would like to examine how much our assets could expand.
Let's look at a period from 1963 to 1966 where the value increased by 40% while only one negative 10% drop occurred, similar to the period from April 15, 2016 to September 25, 2018. In this period, the SNP value increased by 40%, with a negative 10% drop occurring in 2018, similar to the period from March 1963 to 1966.
So, how much did SxL increase during this period? The answer is that it increased by 480. Therefore, if we repeat the 1963 situation... From March 15, 2024 to the beginning of 2027, Sxl has the potential to rise by 480, meaning your assets could increase 5.8 times from their current value. If Sxl rises 48% from March 15, 2024, it would reach around 248 by the beginning of 2027.
I recently received a comment from someone who bought at $40 and was worried that they had bought at the peak, but looking at it from a long-term perspective, it's clear that they didn't buy at the peak at all. As of March 15, I have invested 1.3 million yen in Sxl, so there is a possibility that it will grow to around 60 million yen by the beginning of 2027 without any additional investment.
Furthermore, if the stock price temporarily declines from here, as I always say, a big opportunity will arise, and you will have a chance to increase your assets 6 or 7 times from the current value by the beginning of 2027. So I would like to buy aggressively, but if SxL rises 480 from here until 2027, then those who have bought SxL at 1750 yen now will be able to surpass 100 million yen by the beginning of 2027, about three years from now, and become senders.
And if I have been able to manage SxL up to 4400 by March 2025, one year from now, then mathematically I should be able to become senders by the beginning of 2027. However, at the moment I have only been able to purchase about 10 million yen worth, so in order to accumulate assets of 100 million yen around 2027, I need to buy aggressively because SxL will fall from here, and if SxL rises sharply from here I will not be able to buy at bargain prices and probably will not be able to achieve fire by 2027, but in order to achieve a rapid fire, I would like to pick up aggressively whenever the price drops even a little.
By the way, this is not necessarily the result that will happen in the future, but in 1963 I've talked about what it could look like if it reached its peak, but I've also mentioned in a previous video that there's a possibility that SOXL could rise by more than 400% by 2027. I believe that a market where your current 10 million yen could expand to 50 million yen by 2027 without any additional investment is possible.
So, if you're dreaming of this and want to become super rich with me, please give this video !
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