저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
1월 미국 증시 강세를 근거로 연간 강세를 전망. S&P500 1월 +2% 이상 상승 시 연말 양(+) 수익 확률이 높다는 과거 통계를 제시하고, 2024년 대선 연도 조건도 강조. 다만 올해 10% 내외 조정 가능성과 SOXL 급락 가능성을 언급하며, 작년 3~7월 흐름과의 유사성을 근거로 SOXL 1월 고점 재상승 시 매도 계획을 밝힘. 급락 시에는 SOXL 매수 계획도 제시.
다듬은 글
Time flies, and by the time I post this video, January will be over. I've said many times that January would be a strong month, and just like in the past, January 2024 was excellent, my assets rose sharply, and by the end of the year they had surpassed 15 million yen. However, they rose even further in the last month, and at one point in January they expanded to over 1.6 million yen.
US stocks rose to the pressure level I had anticipated, so I have already sold my Tecl. However, the stocks I currently hold are TMF, which I bought with my bonus, Soxl, which I plan to sell, and Tesla, which I have designated as a junk stock. After the market closed on the 30th, Microsoft, Google, and AMD announced their earnings, and the market reaction after the earnings announcements was that Soxl fell in after-hours trading.
As more earnings are announced in the future, will US stocks, which have been rising so sharply until now, enter a downward trend? The day I am currently creating this video is after the market closed on January 30th. With only one day left in the year, the S& P 500 has risen 3.25% since the beginning of the year, making January an excellent month.
Past data shows that years with a strong January tend to remain strong until the end of the year, which is why this month was so important. I told everyone to drop everything and spend 12 hours each day praying for a rise in January, and thanks to all of you, a positive return for January is almost certain.
The orange line shows cities that have shown positive returns in January since 1950, and the blue line shows years that have shown negative returns in January. It is clear at a glance that years with positive returns in January have seen their returns rise sharply until the end of the year. On the other hand, the annual return for years with negative returns in January was -1.8, so it is no exaggeration to say that past results show that whether or not you show positive returns in January determines the return for the year.
With a positive return almost guaranteed for 2024, there is a high probability that everyone investing in US stocks this year will be able to welcome the end of the year with a smile on their face. And although the market on the 31st has not yet closed, as of the close of trading on the 30th of January, the P-frame of the S&P 500 has recorded a rise of more than 2%, and there is data showing that when the S&P rises by more than 2% in January, stock prices tend to perform well in the past.
This data picks out cities where the S&P rises by more than 2% in January since 1950, and to date there have been 32 years in which the S&P 500 has risen by more than 2% in January, and of those years only there have been 5 years with a negative return throughout the year, with the remaining 27 years all showing a positive return, and the probability of an increase is 84.4 MHz.
If there is no significant drop on the 31st and it does not fall below 2% positive, there is a probability of a positive return by the end of the year. And this year there are cities with presidential elections. Therefore, I would like to look at the annual return rate for years in which cities that have held presidential elections recorded gains of more than 2% in January.
The years in which the S&P 500 recorded gains of more than 2% in January during presidential election years are 1964, 1976, 1980, 1988, 1996, and 2012. These six cities fit this description, and when we look at the annual return rate for each city, we find that the S&P has shown positive returns throughout the year with 100% probability, and in its history, there has never been a city that recorded negative returns.
Therefore, since 2020 is a presidential election year and there is a high probability that it will record gains of more than 2% in January, there is a 100% probability that the S&P 5 will show positive returns by the end of the year. If I say this, I will be told to give back the losses if it does have negative returns this year, so I will read the comments section of this video with trepidation, but it means that this year has the potential to be a very strong year.
Looking at the annual registration rates for the past six years, the lowest performance was recorded in 1976 at +6.5, and the highest performance was recorded in 1980 at +17.9. Looking at the average of the past six years, it is 11.26, so looking at this data alone, we cannot expect a surge like last year, and the rate of increase is just over 10%, so you may think that it won't rise that much this year, but a positive turn in January is highly likely, which means that the ultimate paint is finally complete, and in the first five trading days of the year, which are known as a weak sign in a strong market of the 17-year cycle, it recorded a -2 turn, and in the past, when it was possible to record a positive return in January despite that weak sign, it has surged with 100% probability, and has recorded a surge with an average of 19.97%.
This means that the ultimate paint is about to be completed, so we can be quite optimistic, but even though there is a collection of strong data throughout this year, since 1950 Looking at the decline rates of each city from then until now, it is calculated that a decline of around -10% occurs at least once a year.
In a previous video, we looked at the maximum decline rate in the year the strongest paint was completed, and even on average, a decline of around -9% occurred. So, although we have strong data this year as well, there is a possibility that the price of feed will fall by around -10% somewhere, and the 3x bull product may fall by nearly 50%.
I predict that this decline will occur soon, but in making my recent US stock forecast, I have compared the period from March to July of last year, when it rose by 20%, with the period from October of last year to the present, and they are showing very similar trends. I have been using last year's market as a reference for my investments so far, but as of the end of January 30th, the rate of increase of the price of E on the candlestick chart is 20.16%, which is a 20% increase from the low point.
Therefore, based on past trends, a correction occurs after a 20% increase. The situation is such that a stock price decline could happen at any time, but I would like to check if the market is moving in the same way as last year as of the close of trading on January 30th. Let's take a look. Up until now, when comparing with last year's market, we have been checking the closing price from the lowest candlestick, so when the market closed on January 26th, the rate of increase up to January 26th was almost the same as the rate of increase up to July 19th, and I said that we are currently at around July 19th.
However, instead of using the closing price as a basis, if we check the rate of increase from the lowest price to the current price using candlesticks and compare it with last year's rate of increase, as of the close of trading on January 30th, the SP (S&P) has risen by 20.16%, and the day last year when the SNP amount rose by about 20.16% from the lowest price using candlesticks was January 19th.
Therefore, looking at the closing price as of January 26th, the rate of increase is equivalent to the rate of increase around July 19th of last year. So, on January 26th, we assumed it was currently July 19th, but when we compare the current 20.16% rise with last year's market using the candlestick chart, we can hear people asking, "How long are we going to be stuck on July 19th?" But let's ignore that question for now, and next, let's compare last year's chart with the current chart.
From the end of last year to January of this year, a reverse calculation pattern was formed, and from January 17th, when the third low was hit on the candlestick chart, to the present day, January 30th, the price rose by +4.5 within the old trading days. Last year, the day the third low was hit while the reverse calculation pattern was formed was July 6th on the candlestick chart, and from July 6th to July 19th, which we are assuming is the current date, the price rose by almost the same +4.4 within the old trading days.
So, if you look at the market from the formation of the reverse calculation pattern to the present, you can see that the chart pattern and rate of increase are moving in almost the same way as last year. And as I mentioned in a previous video... I received this, but looking at the SP500 since July 19, the day it hit its peak was 8 trading days later, on July 31.
If we assume July 19 is the current date, it means that the SP500 still has room to rise. And I think it rose 20% from last year's low on the candlestick chart, reaching 4924-1. If the market unfolds similarly to last year's until the very end, and if it rises 20.9% on the candlestick chart from last year's low in March to the high in July, then it has the potential to rise to 4963 points.
And on July 20, the day after July 19, there was a large negative return, and even now, as of the market close on January 30, it is still significantly negative in after-hours trading, so it is unfolding the same way as last year. However, it has risen again from the negative on July 20 last year to a new high, so if last year's market repeats, the stock price will rebound again within 8 trading days and reach a new high.
Similarly, if soxl experiences a resurgence of last year's market, it will rebound and surpass its January 25th high. As I mentioned in a previous video, last year soxl completed four peaks, indicated by numbers 2, 3, 6, and 8, and as the stock price reached new highs, the RSI showed a bearish divergence and declined.
Currently, the RSI is also declining in a similar pattern to last year, but since hitting a high on January 25th, a decline has occurred as indicated by numbers 6 and 7. So far, it is moving in the same direction as last year, so we can still expect a rebound to occur between numbers 7 and 8. Therefore, I plan to sell soxl if it rebounds to this high.
However, if the market does not become like last year's and declines sharply from here, I plan to give up on selling soxl and aggressively buy soxl with the funds I currently have on hand as it falls. If you are interested in my purchase timing, please come visit me on Instagram. So, the important month of January is almost over, but if you'd like to continue increasing your assets aggressively with me, skit until the end today. See you in the next video!
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