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Well, my next guest on the show today is someone who's always been a BJP supporter. I like to call him the market maverick and he's someone who looks at election results but does not change his portfolio irrespective of what the market verdict is. Vijay Kedia joins us now. Vijay, fantastic to have you back.
Thank you for joining us. The mantra of the voice on D-Street today is that fir se Modi sarkar Sensex over 50,000. This Would you agree with that nara on the street today? The first half maybe, not the second. May of course second half but that question is when? Not now. I think whatever has to happen and this market has fully discounted this Modi sarkar.
So, for 50,000 is concerned, that will also happen. Even 1 lakh will also happen but it will take some time. I think event based upswing in the market is already there and there is a saying when when there is a party you should enjoy but don't get drunk. So, I think one should not get drunk at this level.
This market is fully you know Yes, so That is the Nifty but there is no party in the small and mid-cap stocks. In fact, in the mid and small cap stocks there is a bear market feeling. Exactly, that is what I'm saying. This index is actually meaningless. This new index or new high or whatever mid-cap index or this main index, it is meaningless because Portfolios are still bleeding.
More people are not celebrating, not a part of this party. So, only handful of shares like five or 10 shares are actually taking this index to new high. So, this is meaningless. out for those people a list of five names where you believe one can buy even today because you know the index is not really reflective of the larger pool of the market.
Someone who's completely sat out on the sidelines in the next five years if indeed it's the NDA which is to come back to power and you do believe that in the next five years India is going to do well. What are those five companies that one can buy today? Well, I cannot name all those companies because I'm very much biased and whatever stocks I am holding certainly I'm bullish on those shares only.
Right? But besides all these stocks and all, I think banking is certainly banking is going to lead this next rally in the market or next bull market will led by banking stocks. So, when you're saying within banks are there newer names or would it be only HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank? No, not HDFC and ICICI and Kotak ICICI could take part in this but certainly not like HDFC certainly it is going to outperform the index or for index is concerned but I'm more bullish on smaller banks and medium type of banks and you sold Karnataka Bank.
Karnataka Bank is so long back, yeah. Yes. So, what are the other names then? Then nothing else. Small banks, DCB Bank, Federal Bank, CUB, RBL and all these sort sort of banks should do well. Okay. We have been hearing that as well, you know, that the mid-cap banking pack will perhaps move. We've also been talking about the cyclical story and some of that part of the market also now starting to see a revival.
Would you be interested in that segment of the market? I never invest in cyclical stocks because I do not understand their cycle. The moment I go to buy they start falling. So, it is better to avoid, better to stay where you understand little bit. So, high beta at all given the current environment or you'd stay away completely?
No, mid-cap only. I'm middle class person. The mid-cap maverick. I invest only in mid-cap. So, what within infrastructure do you like? Does everyone spinning their hopes on this overall election move? I know you don't like to play the event but is there anything that you like? Of course they should do well but I haven't identified any stock so far.
So, I'm looking for some kind of opportunity but I don't know when I as it is I do not have money to I'm fully invested in the market. So, so whatever you know, other information or whatever I'm getting that is just a news to me. Okay. Now, let's understand from a market standpoint, why are markets so excited about India 2?
Let's let's put things in context here. Whatever India 1 could have done, they had the political mandate, they had the majority, they could have done that. If India 2 comes back in which appears on early trends that they are coming back, what can they do which they were not able to do in the last 12 or 18 months which will excite the market because the India 1 did take bold steps.
Whether they were right or wrong, they took bold steps like implementation of GST, RERA, demonetization, RERA, Aadhaar and whatever. Aadhaar. So, whatever they could do in their wisdom, they've done that. They had the political bandwidth. Now, if India 2 comes to power, what naya kya karenge? So, markets are excited but I'm just asking why?
See, as you know that I'm not a political analyst but what I have understood and what I'm thinking you know, what keeps me stay in this market is this that whatever policies they have laid down in the previous regime, they could not implement them properly. For example, demonetization and all. Although maybe the step was good but they couldn't implement it properly and whatever Jan Dhan and Aadhaar and RERA and GST and all these things, I know this time they are also smarter.
They will learn from their mistakes. They will also learn from the noise which opposition is making for what people are disliking them. They will certainly learn from their own mistakes and whatever reforms they had announced, I think those those reforms will be expert they will expedite all those reforms.
And the question is why this why this NDA is coming to the power? This is what as you are asking is because for the simple matter ki aur kaun hai? There is no one else who can actually face Modi. Congress? Why? Why Congress is losing? Okay, I will give you two points for this. Why Congress is losing?
Again, I'm not a political analyst as a layman, I will just I'm giving you my own Yeah, as an observer. I'll tell you this Rahul Gandhi made two blunders according to me, two blunders. One blunder was when he went to the Prime Minister in the parliament and hugged him and when he came back to his seat, he winked.
So, that wink actually gave a very indecent kind of signal to the voters. And don't forget that this time 80 million new voters are have come to cast their votes and all of them are young people. They understand what you are doing. And second blunder what Rahul Gandhi did was he started calling Prime Minister chowkidar chor hai.
I will give you one perspective. India is a poor country. Come what come what may, 2/3 of population more than 2/3 of population in India is actually poor. So, what is their core asset? What is their asset? Their asset is their family value. You go to any village, tier two, tier three, tier four cities.
Right? People will call you uncle or they'll refer you tau or they'll anchor you. Yeah, like this. This is our family value. This is Indian culture. When a 48 year old man he started calling a 69 years young man that you are chowkidar chor hai and that also without any corruption charges against him whereas his old old entire family is out on bail.
So, this is what this did not go well with the people with the you know, electoral for the in eyes of voters. I think this was the biggest blunder he or his party did in his life. But you know, when Vijay Kedia comes on TV, people will expect one thing. What is Vijay Kedia likely to buy? What is on his radar?
And if Vijay Kedia is claiming that he's fully invested but let me hypothetically create an example that you get fresh flows from selling a property or by selling something, what would you like to buy at the current juncture? The compulsion of not having liquidity is perhaps the reason why you're not buying but hypothetically if you had cash and if you have to buy one stock, The first thing I will tell you I do not mix two things.
Okay. I do not put my property money in real estate sorry, in stock and stock. anyway. Now, having said that I as I said that I like bankings. Maybe I if I have money I would buy some of the banks. Maybe DCB Bank or certainly not Karnataka Bank as of now. Okay. So, maybe DCB Bank or some RBL Bank or Federal Bank.
after the numbers? Because the earnings weren't at par with the expectations this time. Karnataka? Federal. Sorry, sorry. Come on. Will you buy more of Federal even after the numbers? have Federal Bank. Okay. Yeah, yeah. The fresh fresh purchase Which is the bank you want? Which is one bank you want?
Right now? DCB Bank. Okay. Okay, before the ladies take over, I have a very simple follow-up question which is that the three big investments and this is public domain. We've discussed this on this forum, you've discussed those on various other forums. Sudarshan Chemicals, it's a three four year old investment.
Vaibhav Gems or Vaibhav International Vaibhav Global, it's a three four year old investment and you made an investment in a niche IT company Repro. You own about 6% stake there if I'm not wrong. 5 and 1/2 6% stake. You think that there is in terms of an in terms of the way you understand the company and the way earnings trajectory is moving, these stocks are down reasonably from the recent highs but as an investor are you still committed to three of your large holdings?
Yeah, yeah, of course. I'm not bothered. Let me tell you all these stocks is not forcing you to sell. Yeah, down by 30% from their peak but that does not actually bother me. I'm not worried about as long as structurally there is no problem in all these companies. So, I'm still invested and I should be invested till I continue with this interview.
Later on I don't know what I'm going to do but more or less actually I'm okay with them. So, I have a question on returns then, Vijay. The kind of returns that you would be expecting now going forward. We've got markets trading at record levels, right? And at the same time there's a bit of an imbalance in the market.
Given your portfolio, you know, what would be an average return that you'd be looking at going forward? Let me tell you actually how I do not calculate like this because it's very difficult to calculate your return on yearly basis. So, I do not have any price target. I do not have any time target. So, I just have a target of maybe I will stay through this company maybe for next five years or 10 years, I don't know.
Although I can change my mind tomorrow. So, I guess what investors are wondering is can they expect above average returns? You know, when they start to see this kind of euphoria in the market, expectations go higher and I wonder if those are unrealistic. No, but then you have to have have a longer you have to have to have a longer target.
Maybe some stock will not move for two years. They will do nothing like Repro has done nothing in last two years. Even Sudarshan Chemical has done nothing in last one year But before 1 year it has already gone up by 10 times. So you know, so you that way you cannot calculate on year-to-year basis. Maybe they will not perform uh they will do nothing in uh for next 2 years.
In next one after that in 1 year they will go up four times and five times. So you will say that my return average return is 15% or 20%. ask you a tricky question. Now we if if one goes by the leads, I would imagine that NDA 2 is coming back. It's a matter of the seat uh and the final uh you know adjustment whether it's 280 300 plus.
So from a market standpoint, NDA 2 has made a comeback, right? The next factor for market would be who will be the finance minister, who will be the defense minister, what kind of economic policies are likely they are likely to follow. Who will be the finance minister will be the single most indicator for market in terms of the continuity of this government.
What would market like to see? Your call. Again, I'm not telling you to make a forecast here. Do you think markets would be happy if there's a change in the top three portfolios or markets don't want a change in the top three portfolios defense, home, and finance? I don't think home is or defense is so that much as it is people are saying that this this NDA one this government was ruled from PMO only.
This is what people are saying. So I'm not so much focused on defense minister and home minister. Of course, prime minister and finance minister is very important. So there are only two names floating in the market like either Mr. Arun Jaitley or Mr. Piyush Goyal. So I but ultimately policy will be decided in the committee which which which ever committee they must have formed.
So I am happy with both of them. Okay, but you know, we were talking about the broader end of the market and you were also saying that this rally is a bit meaningless because there's just some of the large caps leading. What's the way forward for the broader end of the market that has taken a backseat now?
Where do you see it headed? Midcaps? No, I think you see when we are talking about midcaps that means we are talking about thousands of shares, right? And as I said that this index is deceptive. That does not give a true picture about midcap or or the main index. So and all these thousand stocks have different pattern, different cycle, different advantage, different problem, different solutions.
So there is no one-size-fits-all. I cannot give answer to So as I said that I am just focusing on my 10 20 or 30 shares. So I'm comfortable in that and I think maybe they must have bottomed out. If they have not bottomed out now, maybe 6 months later they will bottom out. As it is I'm not in hurry to sell them even if they go up by 50% or even they double up.
So as I do not have any price target. Vijay, you just heard out our team of reporters as well giving us a sense of what's going on ground. Congress uh the silence practically deafening. BJP, they're handing out all of those uh you know, mithai and it seems to be the atmosphere at least seems to be fairly a buzz right now.
So um you know, in light of what we're factoring in, I know you spoke of the banking sector, uh but give us a sense as to what are some of the other sectors that you would closely look at from an election standpoint. Um that lot of experts are talking about infrastructure sector, okay. So maybe I will look something into that.
And having said that again I'm saying that I do not have any money left. So for that I need to sell some shares which which I will not do. So now I'm just watching the market, enjoying my life, doing yoga and meditation, and just giving interviews to people like you. That's it. And singing as well, right?
And singing as well, yeah, right. That is quote very close to my heart. Yeah. Okay, so Vijay, uh you're there with us the entire day. Uh so thank you. You're there with us the entire day as I've been told. So uh well, we can certainly you know um uh you know, plan a little bit of session for our office people in terms of singing and you know, and taking a number.
That's not you don't discuss that on public TV. But thank you for dropping by. Thank you for joining us and we'll connect with you slightly later.
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