저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 선거 불확실성 완화 기대 속 시장은 큰 충격 없이 현 정부 재집권을 예상하며, 최종 확인 시점(5월 23일)까지는 조정 여지가 있다는 관점. [선거 전망] 선거 관련 데이터가 많이 쏟아지지만 여론조사 공개는 제한적이며, 베팅마켓 등 추정치가 시장 기대를 형성. 현 정부 의석은 기존 282석에서 약 245~250석으로 감소할 것으로 예상하나 예측은 오차가 있음(300석 또는 245석 미만도 가능). [시장 심리] 발라코트 이후 재집권 기대가 컸으나 최근 니프티가 약 12,000에서 11,300대로 하락해 기대치가 조정됨. 선거 노이즈가 커서 초기 충격은 완화되었고 현재는 중립적 분위기. [대외 변수] 달러 움직임, 미·중 무역분쟁, 유가 등이 주가에 영향을 주며, 미국의 대중 관세 25% 인상이 영구화되면 중국 경쟁력에 큰 타격이 가능. 다만 인도 수혜 기대는 시기상조라고 판단. [수급] 외국인은 3월 3.2조 루피 순매수로 시장을 끌어올렸으나 이후 매수 강도 약화, 현재는 관망. 국내 투자자 역시 10월 이후 매수 열기가 식어 매우 신중한 상태. [실적·경기] 니프티 기업 실적의 절반 정도 발표 완료. 자동차 업종은 둔화를 말하지만 일부 소비재 기업은 볼륨 성장 유지. 경기 둔화 실체와 신용 흐름 경색(NBFC 축소)의 영향이 혼재되어 판단이 어려움. [선거 결과 시장 반응] 시장이 원하는 것은 숫자보다 안정성. 220~245석이라도 정권 이양이 안정적이면 시장은 수용할 것으로 봄. 불확실성이 해소되는 5월 23일 이후 방향성이 중요. [정책 방향] 일자리 창출이 핵심 과제. 부동산·간접세·현금거래 정비, 화폐개혁 등 구조 개편의 비용을 치렀으며, 다음 단계는 성장에 집중해야 세수와 기업이익, 증시에 긍정적.
다듬은 글
here on E now we get you all the voices that matter and given the current turmoil in the market e now's a Sharma caught up with ram agal MD and co-found at moal oswal to understand what's in store Will the Market further crack or rebound from here on listen it good thing is that uh there uh uh this time there a lot of data flow about election also though opinion post are not avable which is more authentic but uh betting market and you know other other estimates you know uh what cists are thinking in terms of what could be the numbers so Market is getting uh a lot of uh uh data and based on that I mean Market is at least believing as for me is that there's not going to be disruption the current government is going to come uh with a slightly reduced majority uh about 245 250 instead of 282 but I mean ultimately prediction is prediction there will be mistakes I mean there will be I mean it could be even 300 it could be even a little lower than 245 so uh but I at least Market is not saying that there will be any major disruption in the current dispension of the things in Delhi okay so you know after balakot there was a sense in the market that there would be a blowout again and chances of a complete you know uh Swipe by the by the current government but lately last couple of uh you know weeks the way election voting has progressed and again markets have also coincided with coming down from almost 12,000 Nifty has come down to 11300 do you think some tempering of expectations has also happened and and and it is good that market is going into this event with lower tempered expectations yeah see one month is lot of time with such a noisy kind of election of claim and counter claim and various other issues even defeating this particular part of it so there is a lot of un noise uh lot of uh uh noise in this thing so uh the kind of feel which was there at the time of uh this actually attack happened a month month and half back that impact is much more mowed down which is good actually uh so it's much more neutral but I think somewhere it uh uh it took away the I mean forget about what uh the BJP got but I think of opposition guys they kind of uh they lost the way so the the there is no alternative I mean now uh the BJP or Mr Modi looks to be uh there is no alternative kind of situation so uh to that extent I think uh uh the certainty of his coming back has increased in the minds of the people uh but uh as the time passes you know that other factors start coming in and uncertain starts building up somebody says say that it might be 180 190 so suddenly you know it brings down the confidence and then globally also a lot is happening see the stock market is reflection of everything it's not only about election in fact I would say the other things are playing a lot more in the sense that how the dollar is behaving how the China us China trade war is on how the oil is behaving so those things are also playing a role but if you see the FI flow as an indicator of what foreigners are thinking about India right now I think they have become mutated and the decline is because the aggression which they they bought in March and early that has Tapper down and even this the way China uh and US situation or circumstances have completely changed in the last one week or so it was absolutely uh you know not in Mage earlier do you think this come as a surprise for the market the way again they are at daggers drawn because they almost kissed and make up uh made up couple of weeks back they seem to be you know love and ha kind of situation where they every time they find new reason for postponing by another one month 2 months kind of thing but us has gone ahead and put the raise the Tariff by 25% by chance it becomes permanent in the sense that uh it it it gets prolonged uh then I think it'll have a huge reparation on the global trade Global uh uh competitive uh competitiveness of China because uh uh a lot of things with China exports right now the scale and the price at which they can sell is not possible by anybody else but with 25% Dy lot of other countries particularly India indan entrepreneurs they'll be very fast to seize the opportunity but once let it become permanent I mean is it only 1 month 2 month you cannot take a business decision based on that and there are section in the market already talking about how India may actually turn out to be a Gainer because a lot of manufacturing capacity China can too early I'm telling you it is too early I mean this nature of uh this Bas is too uneditable I would not count on that uh too much so that is one uh aspect of it which is there second is the how the FI are I mean in March they just came out with 32,000 CR of buying which was unprecedented that took the market to different levels and the cooling off of the domestic investor which is on from October number onwards continuously that I mean you might have seen March flow which is the lowest so I think domestics are still uh cautious very cautious I would say and uh foreigners are also uh now sitting on the fence they're not selling so it all depends on 23rd so half of the Nifty earnings is you know almost getting over what are your reading of the numbers so far because on the one hand there is a lot of talk of slowdown but on the other hand uh so auto companies are talking about slowdown and the numbers are being which is visible clearly but when we talk to Asian pins at 12% volume growth say kajaria for example 11 12% volume growth and HL with a somber commentary gives 7% volume growth uh because you analyze companies right from your private Equity business your smaller companies all the way to Asset Management the breath of companies which you analyze what is the reality in your view see it's very confusing right now because how much is the actual slow down economy and how much is impacted because of the slow down in the entire credit flow I think there is disruption in the credit flow smooth credit flow in the system there's a aversion there is a Aion to land and uh lot of uh what you call winding down of the nbfc are happening because they want to become just safe so uh so uh this a very confusing environment anything upwards of 220 230 how do you think marus will react closer to 1902 200 how do you think maret will react see it's a huge event risk I it there a lot of local clients also I speak to so they have taken money or they are sitting on the fence so I think what Market is looking it is not about the number it is about the stability okay even with 225 or even 220 if you are able to provide a stable transition mhm you know uh without any much of noise uh without any breakdown so to say nobody wants to come with the ruling party to make it up from 220 to 272 and there is a midnight oil being burned to figure it out if that kind of situation doesn't come I mean there is a comfortable transition from one regime to uh next regime I think Market will be fine I think Market would welcome right and if and there's a question mark on that then probably we should be Market doesn't like uncertainty so any whatever is see right now there is uncertainty we might say anything about 245 this PO that pole but Market want certainty and event to be out so uh that event is not out so event will be out only on 23rd so if Market further corrects from here I think that will be very good Market expectation will will be much more muted but this time do you think how do you rate the 5 years going by of this government and where do you see the next Focus area will be whoever comes I think see one of the thing which is coming out very clearly is the job creation you know and job creation is not about only uh I mean there has to be lot of effort and uh I mean there was a lot of Correction of old practices in terms of how how real estate industry was taken care of how the indirect taxes were unorganized how uh uh the the cash and check you know there was a lose you know about uh treatment of the uh this thing demonetization which was done so lot of these big changes have been made you know and whenever you make big changes it has its own cost you cannot do big surgery without pain so the pain we have gone through uh hopefully the next phase will be for growth let let's see how much cost they have to yeah everybody's Pro po but the pro poorness has to come from the taxes so and taxes can be collected only when the economy grows so I think uh the growth in the economy and that will bring all kinds of things like a good job creation Feelgood Factor corporate profits and hence the stock market so I think a lot of good things will happen provided the focus is on the growth rather than uh uh you know kind of beating the uh the uh play the significant players in the economy
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