저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 경제와 증시의 구조적·장기적 강세를 전망하며, 은행·농업·인프라·제약에 긍정적이다. 인도 경제 성숙과 자본지출 회복: 지난 5년간 설비투자 둔화 후 회복이 보이며, 법규 준수와 기업지배구조 개선이 정착 중이라고 평가. 1인당 소득이 2,000달러 수준에 도달해 소비 확대 여지가 크고, 가계부채/GDP 10~11%, 국가부채/GDP 25%로 중국(300%)에 비해 낮다고 언급. 정책 효과: IBC(파산법)가 신용 규율을 높일 것이며, GST는 장기적으로 GDP에 1.5~2%를 더할 것으로 봄. 비모디(디모네타이제이션)는 단기 충격이었으나 은행 회복이 예상됨. 외국인 투자와 증시: 외국인 투자 문의가 늘고 있고, 2023년처럼 구조적·장기적 강세장을 예상한다고 밝힘. 다만 현재 주가 밸류에이션은 2023년보다 높다고 인정. 글로벌 금리와 유동성: 미국·일본 저금리 장기화 수용으로 주식 밸류에이션 상승 명분이 생겼다고 봄. 신흥국 통화·성장 여건도 과거보다 개선. 은행·농업·인프라: 은행, 농업, 인프라 섹터가 잘 될 것이라 전망. 공기업(PSU)은 저평가 상태라 단기 전술적 기회가 있으나 장기 보유는 아니라고 함. 제약: 가격 하락 압력의 최악은 지났다고 보고, 인도 제약은 미국 처방 제네릭의 40~45%를 공급하는 성장 산업으로 장기 낙관. 인도 내 원가 경쟁력도 강조. 리스크: 예측이 틀릴 수 있다고 본인이 언급. 최근 분기 경제 둔화는 인정. 출연자 전망: 장기 강세 유지, 본인은 풀 투자 상태라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
I think Indian economy and maturity is reaching a place where growth is you know we nobody ever mentions that Last 5 Years there's been a big dip in capital expenditure I see a big growth in capital expenditure what's happening in our society today people who have followed the law fairly or practically are the people who are prosper sorry Integrity is coming to the four governance is coming to the four in this country we don't understand the implication of that nobody is now going to put up power plant which cost 3,000 CR and 8,000 cror you know Equity lless projects so I think there is some change in society which is coming about and this change is permanent right there's going to be no reversal and we had a period of four five years or of sub potential growth because of the NP and the capital expenditure problem and also because of the because of the fact that you know risk taking and I see the amount of inquiry I get from foreigners the amount of today was talking to the chairman of one of the world's largest advertising agencies in India and he says the country where I have chosen to anounce my investments is India so the kind of foreign investment that's going to come into this country the higher base at which we are going to grow we have reached 2,000 crores of per capita income which is the space that we discuss expenditure goes through the roof throughout the world I can always be wrong and lot of new businesses are going to I mean and look at how underpenetrated we are I mean banking for India's GD Consumer Debt to GDP household debt is 10 11% India's cumulative debt is 25% of GDP and China is a 300% of GDP I agree with RBI govern reduce rates invest we'll see if inflation comes let's build the road let's build the bridges right let's not worry about the interest rates so I feel India is on a like I used to feel on 20023 that we will have a structural and secular bull market this time the structural and secular because stock stock valuation relation to 20023 are much higher today so what I feel is that going to be a structur and secular bull in the economy in the growth look at the aspirations people have and I personally feel the IBC the IBC what effect is going to do creit discipline in this country right what about GST Mr Kar who was the father of GST his estimate was it will add 1 and a half 2% to GS to GDP right now we have had all the worst effects of GDP what about the good effects and whoever it is whether he's a small Trader or me I cannot complain of fair taxes just because I was invading it and now I'm not allowed to evade it what kind of logic is this so we are going to see the effects of GDP we are not going to have an event like demonetization let's pass we're going to see recovery in banking we're going to see capital expenditure is foreign investment we are growing on a higher base we have reached a situation where dis expenditure is going to go through the roof and I think people believe in stocks but they don't believe in the economy the the kind of netism we have that Mr mudi Mr Modi didn't demonetization he got GST as he been getting GST he committed some crime you know if you see the experience of other countries they took 5 to 7 years to stabilize we have stabilized it a year so I don't know in it I feel I cannot give hundreds of reasons at least growth wise India is going to although we are the economy has slowed in the last quarter in the current quarter I India is going to have one of the faster rates of growth and the under expe to equity I think 401 we have few we should have 400 mutual funds here so more more money comes into the market the story this year has been massive fire flows why do you think we I was discussing with a friend just now I'm also I so surprised at the place at which Equity markets worldwide have risen I think see what has happened is that we are even in America we feel 2% 3% interest rates are very low Japan interest rates are negative right now after America increased the interest rates and then they again declared a policy that they will not we have to accept that this low interest rates are here to stay if inflation CH I don't know if Japan is negative after how much money they have pumped in right so now I think stat the world is accepting that this 3% interest rates are for real until now they always to feel rates will go to 6% therefore markets are expensive so innately I feel that that acceptance has led to more money coming into Equity if I said that the SNP 500 or da is giving a return of 5% and the 10 America is ging 2 and a half% until now 5% yield is 2 and until now nobody believe that that 5% yield will stay and this 2 and a half% will remain so now what has happened is people have come to accept the fact that this interest rates will stay and that will naturally lead to higher peace and higher discounting of equity of earnings so I think that's what has LED and also Emerging Markets are now today in a much better situation in terms of currency growth than they were ever in indp you know you always made big Trend forecasts it was buying psus in 200000 it was buying Pharma after that what do you think would be that next year trend for example exactly a year ago you said banks have written of whatever they had to return off they've been caught with their pants down now it is time to buy corporate Banks and look at where those banks are so first what's your view on bank and then I'm coming to you for your for your prediction well I'm B it's a right see I feel banks will do well farmer will do well I think infrastructure will do well and I also personally feel that the way PSU valuations have fallen there could be some opportunity in PSU shares although I think it's only a tactical I want I don't want to buy psus for long term but tactically the they carry value and the value that they are today giving in the yields that they are giving I think there could be a good opportunity in them selectively although I don't do too much res there's no money to invest here I'm fully invested as always not only my money even people's money so by borrowing but I think the next decade returns my feeling I don't know I could be totally wrong the returns and the performance of the Indian as a country and the economy will be far greater see partly the last decade is a loss decade because 2000 what happened between 2009 and 2013 has affected her economic performance for the entire term of the India government I mean his banking crisis was not the was not the creation of the India right and this over capital investment and this you know allotment of coal mines also I think a part of the valuations are affected by extreme competition right so that I think competition both in Telecom and the airlines will will level off now that also may may help earnings you told me the worst of Arma is behind but is the best started is a new cycle in farma starting and we have Mr Vala here he we can perhaps ask him to throw more light but what is your take on Pharma I I have invested I I I feel very bullish about F you think the price erosion the worst of that is behind us the price resion is worst is behind us I also feel that the Indian market will tend to grow faster than what it has grown and the Indian market is a mix Market they're having 100% return on equity in the Indian markets because they buy everything on credit they sell everything they pay of Supply in 60 90 days it's a great the Indian market is a great market and plus it's it's Pharma is not a market where demand can go down and are you aware of one thing that 40 to 45% of all medicines eaten in India eaten in America are Made in India 40 to 45% of all medicines consumed in America are Made in India because 90% of the medicines sold in America are generics and in the generic Market 45 to 50% of the medicines by number of prescriptions is done by Indians so I think it's not a it's not it's a sunrise industry it's not a sunset it can never be a sunset industry right and it's not easy the barriers are high the returns are moderated you know Sun farmer earned the biggest money in dhma and Once Upon a Time dma had become if I'm correct that's what someone told me and dma had become such a bad market and then there was consolidation so I think an Indian cost advantages are unbelievable what mil makes in 10 Sun can make in eight I have investment in company in in aabad what some will makeing eight they will makeing six I mean you can employ a barmer in aabad for 40 50,000 rupes a month so the cost advantages are going to remain there is going to be consolidation it's a sunrise industry demand is going to go up and Healthcare is the biggest thing which people will spend after a certain amount of income okay that's the um forever bullish big bull raak Jala talking about Banks Pharmaceuticals infrastructure sector which uh continues to look attractive to him in the longer term as well and he's saying Pharma is still a sunrise industry not a sunset industry you know just when you would think that with all the usfda problems um you would question your investments in pharmaceutical and that has not really been one of the favored sectors of late but no the big bull refuses to differ and uh he's pretty contrarian over here continues to like Pharmaceuticals but
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