Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Madhusudan Kela on investment mantra | ET Now Exclusive

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결론: 주식(인도 시장)은 장기적으로 높은 수익을 줬고, 투자 성공은 철저한 기본 분석·긴 보유·인내에서 나온다는 취지의 인터뷰. 초기 경험: 아버지의 영향으로 주식에 입문, 5,000루피(약 500만 원 상당)로 시작해 증권·재무 공부를 함. 시장 수익률 논쟁: 한 펀드매니저가 '시장이 수익을 못 줬다'고 주장한 데 반박. 지수 복리 수익률이 부동산·이자·금 등 다른 자산보다 높았다고 주장. 1980년대 투자 사례: 타타파워 등 장기 보유로 큰 수익, 1989년 예산안 전후 시장 비관론 속 Telco(타타모터스) 등을 매수해 큰 수익을 냈다고 회상. 장기 보유 철학: 우량 기업의 성장이 계속되면 일시 가격 상승만으로 매도하지 않음. 타이탄 등 장기 보유 사례 제시. 다만 루핀은 고점 대비 크게 하락했음에도 보유 중이며 제약 산업을 여전히 강세로 봄. 실수와 교훈: 과거 실패 사례를 인정하고, 실수를 두려워하지 않되 감당 가능한 실수를 하라는 조언. 2000년대 초 중소형주 이익을 무리하게 외삽한 실수를 지적. 기업 이익률 지속 가능성, 수요·진입장벽 검토 필요성 강조. 리스크: 고평가 매수 후 손실, 감정적으로 손절하지 못하는 문제 언급. 성공 사례만 알려지는 생존 편향 경계. 출연자 전망: 인도 제약 산업 강세 전망 유지(루핀 보유 근거). 한국 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체 예측 발언은 없음.

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01. as I told you H Big B raak janala this is the ET now exclusive ra my friend philosopher and guide so I would say that uh you know there is so much inspiration people have taken from you so know people know what raak Juna of today is so why don't we go back to your early days and talk a little bit about how did you came in the markets who was your real Guru how did you learn about markets in the beginning and uh I think all known I think now no it is not known it very very first Al I would like to contest the assertion made by that gan from State Bank that markets have not given return I started my life with 5,000 rupees if Market not g return I could have earned the wealth you had these financial advisers could not have flourished right and I don't know what basis he says that markets have not given return I think Ram you do so much research what compound return the index has given you which other asset in India has given it has real estate given it has has interest given it has jewelry given it so I don't know why he's a fund manager and he asserts that Equity doesn't give return it's a big disappointment and Sir they are all asserting there should be Blood on the streets please be careful what you are saying the clients will not come and hit you they hit all of these people yeah that there should be Blood on the streets the only problem is whenever there's been Blood on the streets all the people think I'm smart some part of the blood has also been mine here okay let's just talk about little early days how did you learn about Market in the beginning because there are so many young people who take so much inspiration from you see markets can't be learned Lear can't be taught they have to be learned and I think the biggest quest to learn anything is curiosity if you're curious about something you'll go and digging go and finding out go and finding out so you know my father used to invest in the markets and the evening us to discuss with friends and I was always a very inquisitive and a very you know my father very curious child so I used to ask him what is this centuries price going up and tomorrow goodat State going to come down and grass him you know goon will go up so tell me you read the news and see when the news comes about Goon the news is good the price will go up so at that time the market was from 12 to 2 I was in school and in college so we could know the price only in next day but I used to follow the market and then I got more and more Curious then my father gave me you know the international La organization had made a book of how to read a balance sheet you know for labor so that laborers so people you know union members can understand what is a balance sheet any they say like a balance sheet like a bony what it Heights is what what it shows earing what it Heights is vital but nevertheless we learn to read a balance sheet and then I don't know yet I got fascinated by stocks and my father was a person who always allowed me to do what I wanted but he told me you want to go to a stock market first get yourself qualified so I went I qualified myself with a child accountant and my dad said what do you want to do I said I want to go to the stock market he said what will you do I said I invest he said where's the money but he said you have a house you can live here right and you're a smart fellow if you don't do well in the markets you can always earn 20,000 a month which was a prin sum in 85 right and you can survive but I'll not stop you from doing what you want you I have a house you can live here right do what you want in life don't ask me for money remember your word is a bond and be fearless and may God bless you for he's the only blesser and then I came with 500 rupes I had a bag I to stand outside the ring if I tell anybody there that my father's in the income tax department they won't talk to me so I should tell them my father has a shop in M data market and my brother who a practicing CH account he introduced me to some of his clients they used to get 10 12% in the bank I said I'll offer them 18% interest so my first 2 and half LH loan the lady asked for security I said there's no security so she said okay I give you 1 lak 125,000 then after 10 15 days clearing you give me 1 l2000 worth of security I give 1 lak 125,000 more so that's how I started another client of my brother give me 10 lakhs and in the first year itself I earned 25 lakhs from the 12 and half lakhs I remember I bought the shares of T and you know TCI and some companies made a lot of money and then you know you're saying about the budget in 19 then with all the money that I earned I bought shares of Tata power and this was in 85 86 for 2 three years there was no earning right but I used I got married by that time I used to live in a family my father used to run the house I no need for money my wife came from a family very simple right and we managed then the value of the start shares became the start power shares became a CR of rupees in 1988 and then there was Mr Sharma was very bullish on sisa and he convinced me and you know I bought that was your real initial I mean I bought at least 10 lakh shares of Sago at 25 rupees on Leverage right and about four lakhs of them I sold at 65 rupees in in 3 months sure then I got the initial capital and sag price be 100 rupees and then I remember there was a strike by n in in Telco so my a friend of mine we went there we Bri the Poli the security went inside the factory and here there was so much you know Telco was 96 97 rupes and the factory working perfectly and we bought a lot of shares of TCO and then the budget of 1989 came that's where I really made my money that you know people were so bearish so bearish I can't tell you we went to meet Nish said the index is 640 is 600 if income tax is abolished the budget the index will go to 650 and it come back to 500 I never seen they say mad will impose a tax on education I mean if I send a child to private school he have to P tax now what this is a coalition government education state to impose that tax here to amend the Constitution for 25 crores he not going to amend the Constitution a coalition government so there was no doubt that the level of despondency and bearishness was its highest Nish was very are you seeing anything similar uh now is that dis not that kind of despondency that despondency had to be seen to be believed I mean someone bought 4 sure there was that kind of bearishness and that kind of money people had lost and that AC sold in 3 years at 10,000 rupees right and then I st my life I bought everything TCO this that and I remember the budget used to come at 4:00 and 12:00 I got scared I said okay I'm b 2 and half on the road so I sh sold shares were 10 crores and when I squar those shares in the evening I'd lost at least 2 rupes in those shares but next day my net worth was 20 CR and then we had the rise then you know I remember the gulf for started and the economics magazine wrote an article has Dalal stre ever heard of Saddam Hussein because all markets in the world went on except the street so we sold our position on the top we shoted then again it came down then the Manan Singh government came n i mean we had a run and when we we knew that this has is a fraud that this money is not legitimate and the amount of money you made in the fall fantastic you publicly spoken about radak Krishan danani being your mentor and playing a big role in your life who are the other people who actually influenced your thinking in early days and who do you really admire in first was my father because see the basic values which I had in life and the sense of Independence and daring I had came from the basic human qualities that my dad gave me right then I think I don't know that the amount Mr is effective as Rani is there Kam Kam kab is there I have a friend who passed away very young Rajiv sha see one thing is there we all of all five six of us we always thought of doing right right and we were always paranoid about success and never took it for granted I think one thing is very crucial is you just what if you think of yourself what is the mistake all of us made in the midcap you know we exted that profit of 2 years to the next 20 without examining the business models it's not the immediate you know which is important do they have the business model is the demand is a barrier there if the margin has gone from 10 to 15 is that margin sustainable so this extrapolation of you know we never exploited that you know maybe in 1988 my net worth was 1 CR 1993 is 200 crores that doesn't mean in 2000 it's going to be 800 cres here in 19 2002 also my network was 250 CR so we we cannot extrapolate things you take success with peronia and you know it's always transient and temporary and always talk to do the right thing and when you see an opportunity don't do it yesterday don't do it today do it yesterday just make the opportunity normally in my portfolio I carry a debt about 5% between September 2001 and September 2003 I carried a debt which was at least 40% of my portfolio what what at what valuation shares available great easn was available his book value was 58 his certified fleet value by the largest shipping broker in the world was 88 he used to give a 3 rupees dividend and earn 8 rupees per share and I must have bought 5 million shares at a price of 25 rupees so bought I to borrow money at 9% so that is my question you know lot of us know that uh you want you all want to invest for longterm right but you have this extraordinary sense of patience that once you invest into something and uh you know in lot of times I remember I got to know you in those days even greatest shipping did not give you any return for 8 years apart from the dividend which you made out of not 8 years I bought in 2002 3 4 I sold in 20067 and 150 let's say it did not give you I did not return for long a it's a wrong impression that there are not stocks which I have bought in the public stocks I made the biggest I know I bought at 30 what I'm trying to say what I'm trying to ask is what gives you that conviction to hold on the sto stocks for such long period of times and not first of all things we don't work out obviously everyone sells out company in which I feel there will be no dilution of equity and there will be growth I see no reason to sell it if there is going to be growth right if there's a temporary upsurge in valuation that doesn't mean that that should be reason for selling sure right and other thing is I'm not so smart that I can sell at a high price and then I know there are cheaper companies I'll buy them so if I have something good in life I should stick on to it and I tell you I sold all my public sector stocks I made so much of money in Bat electronics and bat Earth movers and shipping Corporation why because see these are large companies but they need constant management at a certain valuation they need dynamism we Market goes through their own cycles and see all of us in the room have identified a lot of stocks but what we did not have I speak and I speak for a lot of people that even when we had winners in our hand because of the market cycles and because of the pessimism which surrounds uh around a stock or around the industry or the market we actually end up selling stocks but we have seen you even let's say for Titan Titan would have corrected so many times maybe 30 40% from this high 50% from the high but you still kept on holding so what I'm trying to understand it what gives you that conviction what kind of preparation see one thing is there m was so Titan has given me a 100% return in 3 years now if it gives me a 15 18% return after that yearly for the next 3 years why should I sell so my expectation is not that because I got this 100% I'll s Titan and I'll search for the next 100% because that's not easy to replicate let's let's admit that right second thing is it's not that I keep buying stocks to any valuation sure sure that means that doesn't mean that you know if I buy at in high valuation I have no ability to hold on to that if the stock goes strong right so it's not sometimes I have I have you know Lupin and the Peak I had 150 lakh shares I still have 11 million was the stock went to 2200 and to 820 I didn't sell I regret it so but do you regret not selling it at 2,000 well not regret it is regretful that if 3 years later 4 years later you may be anybody in life the result shows no yeah something which is 820 and which is s I sold 15 lakhs right sure so the question is not that always holding is in your benefit see that's what is the thing that just because I have earned a large Quantum of wealth sure right so it is only the success stories or the success facts which are known sure nobody talks about my mistakes that is what that's the reality of Life Madu yeah that's what you're trying you have to you have to examine that's what you're trying to understand that you know let's say supposing yeah we talked about Titan which is a success story and we talked about l which yourself yourself said the stock also for me the cost of L is 8 rupees but the stock is down 60% from the peak so what was your hypothesis for not selling it at that time and what keeps you what is keeping you holding that company to because I I didn't expect that Lupin you know it went from 7 600 to 2200 in 3 years so so my judment said that dupin will not penetrate 1400 1500 downside sure and I'm still holding on I'm long very bullish on Li I'm bullish on the Pharma industry sure and Li is one of the good players there sure and we are you know obviously all of us make mistakes and so have you must have also made some mistakes where you lost a lot of money see when we make a mistake let's say it's a 100 rupe stock goes to 50 rupees or 60es or 40 rupees we know that there's something wrong in the company but emotionally people can't reconcile and book the loss in those companies and I know few examples in your life has also happened like that so you know what is the learning when you should say that you have to cut your loss in this particular fund with this particular management first of all Madu in my life life you said about you know regrets and know life is not about regrets life is about learnings sure right I would like to learn from every mistake I make and I pray to God that I make I'm not afraid to make a mistake that's right I only want to make one which I can afford so that I may live to make another one sure because if I'm afraid to make a mistake in life I'll be paralyzed sure and I'm going to make a mistake nobody is God everybody's going to make absolutely so see I'm a very very conduced investor in terms of valuation sure