저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
2019년 미국 주식시장은 약세 가능성이 크며 신흥국 통화·주식이 상대적으로 유리하다는 견해. 미국 증시와 경기: 2018년 하반기 경기둔화가 뚜렷했고 미국 채권시장이 주식시장보다 먼저 이를 반영했다는 주장. S&P500은 고점 대비 약 10~12% 하락했으나 2009년 저점(666) 대비 여전히 높아 1,500 수준까지 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 장기 강세장이 끝나면 주식·회사채·부동산·미술품·원자재가 함께 하락하는 자산 디플레이션 가능성 제기. 유가·원자재: 유가는 6주 전 $100 논의에서 약 40% 폭락. 유가 하락은 인도 같은 수입국에 유리하고 미국에는 불리. 구리·니켈·알루미늄 약세는 세계 경기둔화 또는 침체 신호로 해석. 인도: 외국인 매수로 인도 증시가 상대적으로 강했으나 밸류에이션은 비싸다고 평가. 모디 정부 개혁은 대체로 긍정적. 2019년 총선 리스크보다 중앙은행 독립성(라잔·파텔 총재의 루피 안정 정책)을 더 우려. 인도 부동산은 개발 초기 단계라 매력적이라고 주장하나 외국인 개인 투자 불가 전제. 통화·투자 전략: 미국은 경상·무역적자로 통화가 가장 취약하다고 평가. 2019년에는 신흥국 통화 포지션 고려, 신흥국 주식이 미국보다 낫다고 봄. 2019년에는 많이 하락해 저평가된 주식을 매수하겠다고 함. 2018년 1월 말 미국 증시의 '정통적 고점'(다수 종목 신고가 실패)이 이미 형성됐고, 시가총액 상위 FANG 종목 중심 상승이라 10월 이후 극도로 비관적이라고 설명. 출연자 전망: 미국 증시 약세 지속, 신흥국 상대 우위, 인도 대형주는 고평가, 저평가 낙폭 과대 종목 반등 가능성.
다듬은 글
star base with our special guest this morning we have Mark Faber joining in to talk about his outlook for 2019 he's of course editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report Dr Faber it's great to have you on the show thanks very much for taking out the time us markets have had a rough close to 2018 what's the Outlook you can offer for 2019 well I think that uh if we look at markets around the world they have always been driven uh very much by the S&P 500 in other words the S&P 500 goes up the other markets go up some more and some less like in 2017 all the Asian markets grossly outperform the US and also European markets in 2018 most Asian markets have underperformed the US I have to say there is an except which is India which has performed reasonably well not that well in US dollars but in local currency it's at least up for the year right but you know a large part of the concern is on uh the inversion of the yield C in the US and the spread narrowing between the 2-year and the 10-year yield suggesting that the growth momentum we've seen through 2018 may not sustain into the New Year what's your outlook on us growth well I think since the beginning of the year if you analyze the statistics clearly there was a Slowdown in economic activity and in particular after August 2018 business uh fell like off a cliff I mean I've talked to some people in uh August and they were still very optimistic about the future and in November they wrote that uh their revenues are 20% below a year ago and 20% below budget in other words they totally misread the economic slowdown that was going to take place in the second half and the economic slowdown is actually visible in the performance of bonds in the US if you look at the stock market between October early November and today we're down say plus minus 10% depending which index some indices are actually down from the peak 20% but the bond market the 10 years US Treasury has rallied since early November by 10% to a high yesterday I think we will now consolidate but I'm just saying the bond market was beginning to recognize the economic slowdown earlier than the stock market right Mark youit it's almost turning out to be one of those Deja V if you recall the kind of fall that oil prices had in J 2016 and we pretty much are seeing the same kind of state especially given how steep the fall has been in just the last 3 months with the oil now hovering around the $50 per barel Mark what's your outlook because this as a factor is one of the key things that Indian market do take into account yes that is a very good example until maybe six weeks ago people were still talking about a $100 oil and instead of going up oil completely imploded within a very brief period of time we are down like 40% from the peak and uh concerning the oil price I just like to say uh when oil goes up oil producers benefit and when goes down oil consumers benefit so India benefits from lower oil prices the US on the other hand does not benefit because it has become a very large oil producers in their own right so uh depending on the country it has a favorable impact and it has on others an unfavorable impact in general weak oil prices like weak copper weak nickel weak aluminum they signal an economic slowdown in the world or they signal a recession so how is it that you're viewing the risk of uh Al luming recession especially for the developed markets into 2019 well I think it's important to understand that uh we've had off the peak now on the SNP a decline of say 10 12% but we have to look at where we came from on the S&P in 2009 admittedly an oversold level and maybe an extreme level we were at 666 now we went to 2,940 that was the peak and we're still at uh over 2,000 so I think I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P dropped to I don't know 1,500 or so and uh normally when you have this kind of momentum on the downside uh in a market like the US that is a very old bull market we started the bull market March 9 2009 and we're now 2018 at the end so I think what is happening here is that we could have a more meaningful decline that does not reach a new high anytime soon but but where asset prices stocks and then eventually also corporate bonds and real estate and art prices and collectibles and commodities they all go down we had this asset inflation since the early 1980s and we could have a asset deflation that is with us for several years is India holding its own versus other Emerging Markets does it look more attractive to you because we've had a relatively better year yes I mean I think that uh the Indian Market has caught the attention of foreigners so they were big buyers of Indian shares at the beginning beginning of the year I think the reforms that Mr Modi has implemented or is trying to implement are on balance very favorable I think a lot of progress has been achieved in India the only thing I have to say is the valuations of equities is not cheap it's an expensive market and if I were to bet on Market next year or whenever the time will come I will buy assets that are depressed not assets that have outperformed everything else uh in 2018 can India continue to outperform EMS in 2019 you think yes uh for sure we have the potential we just don't know uh maybe it will and maybe it will not but uh it has the potential that undoubtedly right Mark A lot of people are assigning uncertainty to the big event for us uh in 2019 that is the general elections but historic data seems to suggest that markets typically have actually performed better and outperformed after that bit of a ejk reaction after the election event and have actually held through in an election year how critical do you think uh is election and is it a big risk for India as we step into 2019 I'm less concerned about the election than about the central bank I think the central bank was under Mr Rajan and Mr Batel relatively independent uh no Central Bank is 100% independent I mean I talk to many people who used to work for the central banks in the US and in Europe and so forth and they all say essentially the government the treasury Department and uh the Federal Reserve or the central banks are all one and the same so uh total Independence has not exist but it was a relative Independence which I considered to be very important and I think both Mr Rajan and Mr Patel they pursued a policy of stability of the rupe which I think for the majority of Indians is a very desirable policy is it necessarily very good for stock investors no because stock investors they like money printing so the stocks go up uh that's the only concern but as an economist my concern is the well-being of the entire economy okay so what sectors are you looking to buy when it comes to India well personally I have argued for years if I were Indian and I lived in India and I could buy freely real estate which I cannot do as a foreigner then I would focus on investments in real estate because India is in the early stages of Economic Development uh not in every sector but in many sectors it's in the early stages of building a very large uh a very large uh middle class and then it becomes attractive to own a home first residence whether that is nearby Delhi or in Delhi or Mumbai or wherever and then the second thing is that these aspiring Millennials and young people who have money they want a second home they want maybe a condo on the beach or they want a house for weekends and so for so I think that real estate in India is still in the infant shoes of Economic Development if you compare it to other countries in China uh real estate developments are far more progressed than uh and advanced than in India so that is a sector I would look at personally right uh what then is your view on Emerging Market currencies with the kind of pressure that we're facing on current account deficits well I think this is a very good question because Emerging Markets have a high current account deficits in some cases but not in all cases and number two by size the US has of course by far the largest current account deficit and trade deficit and I don't see any Improvement so of all the currencies if you ask me which one is the most vulnerable I think the US has a very vulnerable currency and as a result I think that maybe next year you should be positioned in Emerging Market currencies I think Emerging Markets have grossly underperformed the US and on valuations Emerging Markets are now becoming statistically relatively attractive now if earnings of course collapse then they are not particularly attractive but uh relatively speaking I think if you ask me to buy stocks next year I would rather buy an emerging market than in the us and within Emerging Markets you would prefer India versus others well uh as I told you in my view Indian stocks are on the high side that's this is what I said to you and if I bought shares I would buy the ones that have been hurt very badly and so uh these shares would have in my opinion a strong rebound potential okay and how do you feel about stepping into 2019 versus how you were feeling about stepping into 2018 are you more cautious uh into the new year than you were the same time last year well as 2018 began I thought that by January the 26 we had made made a major high in the United States and I call that the Orthodox high that is the high when the majority of shares reaches a new high what you can have thereafter is another new high but it's not driven by the majority of shares as you know in index ad S&P has 500 stocks in theory in Siri 499 could be down by say 18 and was one SNP stock with a big market cap like apple could be up $10 and the index would be up so it would look very good but underneath the market beneath the market the majority of shares would be G down and so in October November we made new eyes in the indices the Dow the SNP the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 but the majority of shares did not participate it was driven largely by the Fang and Fang related stocks and so I became quite bearish you know in late September early October because the Market's Advance had not been confirmed by the majority of participants of stocks it was the generals leading the Fang and Fang related stocks leading but the troops behind they were not following all right Dr fa we leave it at that wish you a very happy New Year um and a great entry into 2019
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