저자: Kevin · 외국인
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ADP 고용보고서가 예상(15만)을 크게 웃돈 29.6만으로 6개월 추세가 상승이라며 경기침체 우려를 일축. JOLTS 기준 초과 구인 약 300만건이 노동시장 완충 역할을 한다고 주장. 임금 상승률은 전월 대비 둔화된 것으로 제시. 연준은 금리 인상 후 데이터 의존적으로 판단할 것이며, 인플레이션이 문제라는 입장. 나이키 스우시형(변동성 큰 완만한 회복) 시나리오를 제시하고 변동성 속 매수 의지를 밝힘. 은행위기는 체계적 위기로 보지 않음.
다듬은 글
my goodness this is an absolutely shocking report I am blown away by this because folks this chart that I'm going to show you in the next 30 seconds here is a mind-blowing first of all I just want to empathize most business owners are like man this is no 2021 anymore I empathize with that sales and revenues are not what they were in 2021.
by no means now I did get a surge yesterday because we announced this new AI feature for our Elite Hustlers course which we're rebranding as a make money and get sh9t done faster course and we had a surge in sale so numbers are great check out that link down below we've got the price going up on Friday but what's important is that most businesses right now are seeing declines in numbers you know I took a pause from doing Affiliates or sponsorships for a while uh because they it really it was the right thing to do at the time and I tried a few Affiliates and sponsors again just in probably about for about a month uh ending about a week ago and I'll tell you they're still not worth it you know it used to be back in 2021 as a business owner you could say hey go to metcaven.com stream yard and you get an explosive return for for doing that uh even though the product is still phenomenal paid sponsors like this or Affiliates like this they're not worth it anymore now you can still do that but they're not worth it anymore and so by many regards the economy is softening right if you're super super poor you're stock paying high electricity bills and food bills grocery bills everything is is off the charts right restaurants have gotten obscenely expensive if you're middle to upper class you're feeling the recession because valuations are down for your assets homes Autos uh boats uh you know stocks everything's hurt right if you held bonds beforehand it hurts yeah now we can get higher yields on our cash which is great but but wait a minute is the economy actually in a recession or not what's going on well if you look at this ADP report that just came out the economy is doing just fine in fact look at the trend first the ADP report expectation was 150 000 jobs would be added but I want you to see the trend of the last six months for ADP reports you ready for this it is right here what the heck that is a trend up now we know that jobs data is lagging right everybody keeps talking about how jobs data is lagging they should be going negative soon well if it was going negative soon it should be trending down not trending up I mean that either looks like a RuneScape party hat or an uptrend and for the sake of this video it is an uptrend look at this report that we got the April report was 296 000 jobs the expectation was 150.
this Friday at 5 30 a.m I will be live streaming it we are expecting 186 000 jobs from the BS Report uh or the BLS report uh Bureau of Labor Statistics will be releasing their jobs report we're expecting 186 000 jobs I will be live streaming that live at 5 30 a.m Pacific Time mark your calendar for that but we didn't expect this ADP report to come out with a double it doubled the expectation from 150 to 296 is basically a double which is really remarkable and it's also the strongest ADP report that we have gotten uh in the last six months which is also remarkable because wait a minute I thought companies are laying off and things should be slowing down but wait a minute if you actually think about this think about how many excess job openings we have even though you hear Morgan Stanley is laying off all the tech companies are laying off Dropbox laid off 500 people because they think artificial intelligence can do their job for them uh IBM says 30 of their back office staff in the next five years is basically going to get fired because artificial intelligence will just do their job like human resources employment verification stuff like that uh parts of HR obviously not all of it but that's shocking that I mean AI is revolutionary if you're not studying artificial intelligence you are going to get left behind that's why I'm including it in my making money and get more stuff done faster course check out that link down below because the price will go up now that we're adding this that is on pre-sale all that AI content is coming out the actual productive AI content is coming out on June 1st mark your calendar for that but what's remarkable is the jolts report suggests we have about an excess of three million jobs yesterday I referred to this as the insulative blanket right it's the blanket that lets our economy stay strong while we go through job losses but if you think about it you could literally get 1 000 Morgan Stanley 3 000 job layoff reports you can get 1 000 of those headlines and you would just be at par par think about that for a moment here let me show you that visually because it's a big deal it shows you how strong the economy still is despite the fact that a lot of us as business owners or even employees we see the softening like the softening is here the softening is happening we are feeling the pinch it's starting I walked into a Hugo Boss in New York and they're like you know we're finally starting to see the signs that's a red flag so I'm not trying to make like a you know super uber bullish thing here just saying this jobs report is mind-blowing this morning and I understand things get noisy but again if you look at that that six month Trend right here the six month trend is up and it's remarkable that the six month trend is up like this but understand this about the jolts report because it will help you understand how much of an insulated blanket we have and why the FED can play this higher for longer game if we have three million excess job openings right three million excess openings and we have let's say roughly for simple math 6 million unemployed this means we have nine million openings right we could literally lose all three million of those excess openings so three million people could get laid off and take those three million jobs and then you would still be matched with six million openings for 6 million unemployed people how crazy is that that's what the Federal Reserve is trying to mine down right they're trying to get that ratio to a one-to-one balance right now you're like a one to 1.5 1.6 if you do the numbers exactly balanced so there's plenty of this insulated blanket until we get to one to one I I don't know if we could price in cuts and this ADP report at least it's not an in wage price spiral style report you know the ADP report was actually good in terms of wages look at wages you're still seeing wage gains of 6.7 percent for people who stay in their jobs year over year 13.2 percent for job stayers but what I'd like to do is rather than just show you this report I'd like to show you the comparison of this report to last report and so I manually wrote this out in the course member live this morning uh you remember when the course member lives daily when we do them when the market is open we we talk about things like the forward earnings call AMD evaluations and fundamental analysis so if you want to passively listen to this really high value content you want to be part of those course member live streams we might be moving sort of and integrating parts of the meet Kevin report I had been doing live pretty regularly on the channel into the course member lives now and starting those earlier there's a lot of people are asking for those in the course members so we'll probably start the course member live a little earlier but anyway look at these changes so I just wrote them in Blue on the right the April numbers compared to the March numbers holy smokes job stayers you're seeing a decline in every category of wage gains now I'm not cheering people making less money people are actually making more money here right but none of this is showing you a wage price spiral because none of it is showing you that wages are actually going up at a higher rate than they were last month and these are all year over year comparisons as well I'd love to see the month over month that on this we'll get that in the jobs report this weekend or sorry this Friday but look at these changes in establishment hiring small businesses went from 101 000 to 2 or 121 000 job hires medium went from 33k to 122 and large went from 10K to forty seven thousand all walks of businesses are growing look at the different types of businesses here you still have a Slowdown in manufacturing which just to explain that really quick that's because wholesale inventory is still so high if the Orange is inventory then you have to manufacture less and you can still sell products to Consumers right uh so it makes sense that you're seeing some manufacturing slow down because we just built up so much excess inventory because of kova days uh and we're not growing like we were in 2021 obviously so even though we planned for that kind of growth we don't have that kind of growth but look at leisure and Hospitality I mean here massive increase 98 000 jobs to 154 000 jobs you're seeing less job declines in the declining segments with the exception of manufacturing but otherwise everybody's back to hiring so it makes me wonder were these layoffs just a q1 adjustment and the economy is back to Crazy growth but again go to this April report and the fact that this April report is showing us we added twice as many jobs as back to 296 000 that's setting up for we're not in a recession yet maybe the recession was last year and that's it and and inflation goes away and things are good we just Nike Swoosh recovery I still believe the Nike Swiss recovery it's every single day that people like oh Kevin you flips up every day no I don't like literally I told you and I've been saying it Nike Swoosh volatile recovery the stuff you buy today I think we're gonna look back 10 years ago from now we're gonna look back and go damn I wish I bought more it's gonna be volatile yeah there's gonna be a you know an sh-9t storm uh every day with with this volatile data but that's because we're in such uncertain times but I try my best to to parse through all of the data and the data just isn't that scary uh the banking crisis is nonsense uh yeah we're gonna have Fringe Banks fail but I really don't see something massively systemic and I'm not just trying to reiterate talking points the First Republic balance sheets weren't actually that horrible yeah they were they had way more loans than cash we know that but every Bank does so does sulfi okay way more loans than cash they've got about 25 of their loans in cash it's not me saying oh pull your money on a sofa no it's just I'm not not I'm not saying there aren't going to be more banks that fail but do we think we're going to have a 2008 style banking crisis no do I really worry about dollar D dollarization you know losing the reserve status of the world no do I really worry about the debt ceiling no but I've also made that clear in all of my videos over the past month am I really worried about you know uh oh we this was a great stat by the way we did this in the course member live stream uh our good buddy Steve he's like hey man but you know what if International Imports slow down and we did the math and we're like okay if Chinese Imports of United States products fell 10 it affects our GDP by like six basis points so in other words if our GDP is one percent minus 10 Chinese Imports we'd be at like point nine four percent GDP kind of interesting Europe had about twice the impact uh but anyway that kind of analysis I think is very interesting because it really lets us cut through the emotion of the headlines and see wow there are still some really strong shoots and this economy that's not saying we're not going to go into a recession but the idea is what we're what we're doing I really like the insulated fire example okay because I think it's the best example is what you're doing is you're saying here's us and we're uncertain and we're we're in a box okay we're in a box that has insulation that looks like this and the insulation is jolts it's excess personal savings still in excess of a trillion dollars it's a personal uh you know a percentage it's the percentage that people are spending on their debts for their household expenditures is actually at a lower percentage than it used to be even though yes debts are rising people are spending Less on a percentage of their income on their debts which is good uh then uh then it's jolts it's job openings your ability to get another job and really what's happening is you have this fire right and the fire is trying to burn through this insulation and the fire is the Fed raising rates it's kind of like a cavity you know trying to drill in to get to the nerve and this is creating a lot of fear and uncertainty and that fire goes away and that cavity so to speak stops growing as soon as inflation is gone so the hope is that we can kill inflation before it penetrates the box that we're in and as long as we could do that we could go back to being happy uh but there's still a little bit of an uncertain face right there uh but the point is uh obviously get into that course that's going to have an amazing AI segment uh June 1st before uh this Friday so you could get the best pricing on it because we'll be raising the pricing since we're adding all this extra content but everybody inside is getting it for free uh and if you join you get those same benefits right you get lifetime access and when I add new segments you get those as well uh so it's I'm always wanting to reward and give back to people who have given to me and I think that's important and also you the viewer very important I continue to provide value every single day here so thank you if you like this kind of content make sure to subscribe like the video and share it but look bottom line am I really worried about the feds 25 BP hike no because economy is just fine right right now the concern is inflation so mark your calendar because we will know how much longer that fire has to burn based on the calendar now keep in mind today we are not going to get a summary of economic projections the next one will be June 14th which is the day after the next CPI report actually there are two CPI reports coming out there's a CPI report coming out a week from today I will be covering that live Mark these on your calendar okay ready for this uh May 5th 5 30 a.m jobs May 5th 11 59 pm course price goes up May 10th 5 30 a.m Pacific CPI June 13th 5 30 a.m Pacific CPI June 14th 11 30 a.m Federal Reserve summary of economic projections and press conference the summary of economic projections actually come up 30 minutes before that same thing today you've got the FED meeting today we're going to get 25 we'll get some hawkish commentary about like well we're going to be data dependent it's really the FED meeting today is going to be here's 25 we're going to wait for the next two CPI reports to see how much longer we have to keep this freaking fire going at least this number from Nick T here is falling which is the quits data which is actually really important to see that people are quitting their jobs less because when people quit their jobs it's a sign that they think they can get a better job somewhere else you don't quit your job if you think you're gonna be unemployed and you then you stay so anyway look not nervous I'm going to continue providing analysis on all of this information but I really believe in the Nike Swoosh recovery yeah there's no flip-flop it's just gonna be volatile so we're going to get Negative information we'll get positive information look we in the course remember live this morning we went through Ford we went through AMD we're looking for signs of a wage price spiral we're looking for signs at the bottom we're looking for someone when one of these numbers are going to get better for uh for AMD it's probably Q3 Q4 however they're getting smashed today absolutely smashed it now is it a buying opportunity depends what PEG ratio evaluation you want to put on them and if you think they're actually going to get to about 250 in EPS this year and maybe pop that up to about 420 next year uh you know if you get that 250 this year you're probably at somewhere around a 2K uh for the company and assuming about a 14 growth rate so uh but anyway these are things we could talk about more in more detail uh but uh look for me I'm doing everything I can to put one foot in front of the other make sure we can increase as much revenue as we can so that way we and and we're going to do that by providing as much value as we can to the community uh and we're going to keep providing value to these courses uh and then what we're going to do is uh we're going to invest in the stocks and companies that we believe in because we think yes the Nike Swoosh is going to be very volatile it may take years to go back to this Nike Swoosh recovery for for it to actually progress and that's okay even if it takes a decade we want to be in and adding now and increasing our ownership of great companies now during all this uncertainty because not very fearful so that's my take obvious personalized Financial advice but again if you found it helpful please being here and uh Hey folks we'll see in the next one thank you
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