저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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First Republic 파산과 JP모건 인수를 짚으며 헤지펀드 숏 포지션과 ETF 자금 유입 둔화를 근거로 시장 약세 신호를 제시. Fed가 1970~80년대 신뢰성 실패를 피하려 고금리를 장기간 유지할 것이며 실업 증가와 경기침체(스태그플레이션 유사)가 올 수 있다고 주장. 채용 둔화(JOLTS), AI로 인한 인력 감축, Sofi 대출 구성 악화를 위험 근거로 듦. 투자 측면에서는 개별 종목 추천 없이 부채 축소, 역량 강화, 우량기업 분할 투자를 권고.
다듬은 글
oh boy it's a very painful the failure of First Republic Bank was the second largest bank failure in the United States his entire history the 14th largest bank in the U.S gobbled up by JP Morgan the biggest bank in the United States which usually they're not supposed to be able to do that but they got special exemptions because well they paid the most supposedly or they got some friends over at the right places but anyway now hedge funds are loading up shorts against the entire stock market and we are seeing the most bearish positioning in stocks that we have seen since November of 2011.
that's back when investors were worried about a double dip crash following the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis that's right hedge funds are that bearish right now and this is scary because it's not just hedge funds it's also retail via ETFs ETF inflows in April were half of what they wore in March a sign that investors are either out of cash or they're allocating to other Investments like maybe gold or treasuries or money market funds being a licensed financial advisor operating an ETF and selling programs on building your wealth this is shocking to me add to this that the hero of many on social media Elon Musk also the hated person of many says the FED is operating with too much of a lag in other words the vet is overdoing their work and markets and stocks need to fall to properly show the FED how much damage they're causing and may have already caused then maybe the low volatility we're seeing in markets right now isn't actually something to take solaceon isn't something to feel good about it's actually potentially just the Calm before the storm and that the worst is yet to come after all two-thirds of economists are expecting a recession in the next 12 months the yield curve inversion between the three month and the 10-year is over 160 basis points deep and while some yield curves have started to re-steepen we haven't seen potentially the fed's favorite that three-month tenure go anywhere nearly steepening it and usually the Real Pain happens when that curve starts rest deepening it guess what we haven't seen it start yet but we have started to see mortgage spreads out to the highest and widest level that we've seen in the last six months which is a sign of stress beginning in financial markets and Charlie Munger is already warning of a commercial property storm with his buddy Warren Buffett and really all eyes are on the Federal Reserve for a change in strategy and so analyze the fed the fed's pivot and stagflation and what they're really up to are they really this stupid well also briefly plug a massive and completely free expansion pack it's a huge productivity hack to teach you how to actually use artificial intelligence to create productivity Solutions in your life as an employee or a business owner either doesn't matter totally for free for existing members of the elite Hustlers course which will be rebranded to a new course but more on that later we will have a pre-sale link down below and all existing members will get access to this which is super exciting but again more on that later we need to understand also what's going on in the jobs market and earnings and so we'll be touching on those as well so let's get started with what the hell is the Fed actually doing are they taking us down the right path do they know what they're doing or are they making a massive mistake like Elon Musk suggests well first it's worth remembering that Jerome Powell the chairperson of the Federal Reserve has made it exceptionally clear one he is a student of history and number two he does not want to repeat the mistakes of the 1970s or 80s so what were the mistakes of the 70s and 80s and how do those compare to musk's commentary well in the 70s the FED operated with what some say was more of a leading data approach in other words they used politically desirable data some say the Fed was basically more of a pushover to politics and when presidents like dick Nixon wanted to have looser money policies to help them win elections the Fed was more than willing to oblige the problem is you ended up destroying the federal reserve's credibility and now you might think to yourself come on man the fan has no credibility right now oh but that may be true but it's even worse if they lose what's left of their credibility see back when they were printing money when inflation was six percent just a year ago people lost a lot of respect for the Federal Reserve the FED being a student of History realizes when their credibility starts going in the dumps they have to flip and make sure they put the pants back on and show you who's really the boss and that means moving from leading data to potentially using lagging data and the question isn't so much of is the Fed going to over tighten no no they're going to over tighten the question is how much are they going to over tighten to show the world they're still wearing the pants one way you could look at this is by a analyzing a discussion from the Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee transcripts not their minutes but the actual word for word transcripts from October and August of 1980.
in response to chairperson volcker Mr Roos States the following quote I think that credibility is important not just because we like to use the word and like the Ring of it this is from 1980 mind you but because without credibility in what we have announced we are going to have higher interest rates in other words inflation expectations might be rekindled because of the loss of credibility and basically we'd have High interest rates and high inflation if we lose our credibility now consider that for a moment we know that Jerome Powell studies the 1970s and 80s and uh you obviously have the FED lamenting today that they don't want to repeat the mistakes of the 70s and 80s because back then the FED lost credibility and the FED does not want to continue to lose credibility today because if they lose credibility then what do we end up with they just told you if credibility goes away we get higher interest rates and high inflation that's exactly what happened in the early 80s and it was a big problem so how did the Federal Reserve actually put their pants on well they raised interest rates by more than double from around 8 to over 18 in today's terms forget about a 25 basis point hike going from uh 4.75 to 5 imagine going from 4.75 to 10 percent that's what the FED did to restore credibility in 1980 we don't want to go back to that because that didn't lead to a shallow or mild recession or soft Landing no it led to a nasty recession it led to an 18-month long recession with unemployment higher than it was during just said unemployment was higher during that rug pull by the Federal Reserve because they lost credibility because they screwed up playing politics they ended up giving us a nastier recession by definition of the unemployment rate than what we had during the 2008 financial crisis so if the FED were likely to have a conversation with Elon Musk they'd probably say yo the pain you're feeling right now bro it's nothing compared to what you're going to feel if we don't control inflation expectations and get our credibility back in line so if you want to see Tesla go to 24.33 like some of the Bears out there are talking about hey you know what why don't we just do you a favor let's cut rates tomorrow and then after we cut rates and reignite inflation we'll rug pull you down another 80 percent or we could actually look at what's happening and what history has taught us look at the transcript from the 1980 meeting in August the FED clearly discusses the concern of losing control of inflation expectations what do we have today yes five-year break-even inflation rates that's the bond markets measure of inflation expectations are trending down and this is good but they're well above the level where we paused rates the last time in 2018.
they're also starting to unanchor in the near term as measures of consumer expectations of one-year inflation measured twice in the last month by the University of Michigan have shot up over one percentage point to 4.6 percent in English the mission isn't a complete shoulder I'll try that without an accent the job ain't done there's still more work to do to make sure that inflation expectations don't continue to disancher that instead they continue to anchor down low and potentially fall even lower because until then the fed's job is not complete and that's really scary it should make you nervous about the Federal Reserve and you should believe them when they say we are going to be higher for longer now don't get me wrong I don't want to be a a bear here okay I'm overall hopeful and optimistic but let me be clear hope is not an investing strategy so higher for longer is problematic because it means we're going to lose the insulation blanket around our economy today protecting it from the fire of the federal reserve's aggressive rate hikes that insulated blanket is the joltz report that stands for the job openings and labor turnover survey and it's basically a measure of how many job openings there are on the economy think about it if you lose a job your spending goes down right no you get another job and then you keep spending but if you lose your job and you can't get another job then your spending goes down and that's why the joltz report is so unique because it tells us how much of that fire blanket do we have left because the FED lit a fire now the fire blanket of the joltz report is starting to shrink okay we have now shrunk three readings in a row we are at the lowest level in two years and it's likely to worsen now that is what the Federal Reserve wants they want the labor market to be more in balanced because they think that will reduce wage inflation but the question is once you burn that blanket away do you put that fire out instantly or does the fire start to burn you that is the fear the FED is overdoing it and the question then is how much damage are we going to create but it's not just the FED it's also the fire of artificial intelligence consider the CEO of IBM he just reported plans to pause hiring for roles it thinks AI artificial intelligence will completely replace or eliminate in the coming years these are non-customer-facing roles like employment verification jobs for human resources about 26 000 workers could be affected at just IBM and what did the CEO say he said quote I could easily see 30 percent of that in other words that part of the business sounds insensitive getting replaced by artificial intelligence and automation over a five-year period that's an insane claim from an employer of tens of thousands of people IBM an American staple saying AI is going to replace a ton of our back office work thousands of workers gone Morgan Stanley just announced 3 000 layoffs and the CEO of Citibank says blockchain technology is cool and great and all but it's been kind of slow to catch on Artificial Intelligence on the other hand that will be fast and if you thought crypto was fast it's not but if you thought it was fast as gonna be even faster now we really need to understand the implications of all of this on the economy but I want to give a shout out to an amazing course member who actually recommended that I do this I'm announcing the pre-sale of a massive set of new content actually solving problems with artificial intelligence to help you become more productive so if you wonder how I get so much done in a day I schedule what tools I use to hack my productivity we're going to go through all of that using the artificial intelligence tools that we Implement to make sure we can be more productive as individuals or business owners or employees and make more money or make sure that we can get a new job in case we had fired from our current job because we're going an economic recession in fact to honor existing course members we are rebranding an existing course which is called the elite Hustlers course that's a making money course we're rebranding that too and let me know in the comments what you think about it making money and getting ll existing members of that course will be given totally free access remember that's my goal is when you join one of my courses you get lifetime access not only to the content but you get access to the course member live streams and I want you to have content that comes out that's new I always want to make sure that you know every single day I wake up and I try to what can I do to provide more value to my existing members and my channel members my channel subscribers you name it all of you and so the AI segment will be released on June 1st you'll be getting free access on June 1 you could join that course now if you haven't yet already we're offering a pre-sale to anyone who wants to join that course and the price will be going up on Cinco de Mayo that is the 5th of May which is in just three days so at the end of the day on May 5th the price will be going up if you want to access the pre-sale click the link down below and between now and June 1st you'll be able to enjoy ich is a second set of live streams we do on the weekend and the existing content then on June 1 we'll be releasing the AI segment totally for free so click that link down below and join before May 5th by the end of the day keep in mind the course will be dedicated to building your productivity as either an employee business owner student or really anyone to make sure you're the most productive person you possibly can be now the problem with the jolt staff as the jolt status report came out this morning the stock market dropped that's likely because markets are realizing we need to price in the remove of our insulative blanket and the fact that we might get burned once those job losses increase the damage to our economy could be severe the FED is already expecting the unemployment rate to rise one percent but anytime that has occurred in the past the unemployment rate has gone on to rise another one percent meaning we are getting early indicators that the data the FED is looking at which is backwards looking is starting to get crushed this is risky because once the damage is done it can take a while to undo but the fan has to be careful here not to undo their fight against inflation in the first place and risk resurgent inflation this is why the FED in their commentary to us is very likely going to make it clear that their job of constraining inflation expectations is not done and even if they stop raising interest rates after a 25 BP hike they're going to stay there for quite a while and they're going to be very data dependent to make sure that a inflation isn't reanimating but B to make sure it is trending appropriately and quickly down because the longer it takes to get inflation down the longer it might end up becoming sticky and entrenched and the greater the likelihood we get a Paul volckering however the only way to actually Force this is not by driving up interest rates is by causing job loss but the FED can't fire people interest rates end up crimping money that wealthier individuals and businesses have access to they're usually the ones who employ people right businesses and wealthier individuals employ people so in order to get less people employed you have to crush wealthier individuals by hurting their stocks in their real estate and you have to crush business owners by increasing their cost of capital and then hopefully they fire people which sounds terrible but that's basically what the FED is doing because the FED thinks hey as long as we get inflation down sooner rather than later less people will be hurt in the long run it's a very utilitarian game it's kind of like you know that analogy where a train is barreling down the road and there's one person tied to the tracks on the left and 20 people tied to the tracks on the right you have to decide by turning the lever which group of individuals are going to get uh you know trained and the utilitarian answer is well the greatest good for the greatest number of people so that's the choice you make that's the choice the Federal Reserve is making but if you're in Congress be like yeah I'm just gonna make no decision anyway this might explain why today's earnings so far have actually been resilient in the face of this economic slowdown look at Chipotle American Express Visa e-commerce you name it earnings are coming in much better than expected and it appears that markets were really just too pessimistic for most companies but cracks are beginning to show take Sofi for example much of their value right now when you actually look at their balance sheet this is something we did on our course member live stream by the way we do this almost daily we pick a company we go through some of the financial statements do it all for you so it makes it really nice and easy for you but anyway so far much of their value when you look at their balance sheet right now has to do with loans available for sale however their portfolio growth or loan mix in other words where are they growing where is the growth happening at Sofi is Shifting to a not so great segment growth is 46 year over year in personal loans and in student loans you're down 47 and Home Loans you're down 71 percent so in other words you're getting less higher fee and more secure loans like home loans and you're getting more low or should I say no fee personal loans with no light fees that's what Sofi promises all of these loans are exploding so far in popularity but they're much riskier and on average they're unsecured and about twenty five thousand dollars in size this is risky for a company like Sofi because it probably only takes about a 15 markdown in the value of their loans available for sale for them to be upside down that's risky for a company like Sofi and it makes you wonder why the stock is going down oh wait no it doesn't because when you actually look at the numbers it's like oh yeah that's where the risk is during a banking crisis lending something I've actually been talking about for months if not years at this point I don't want to own financial services companies in a recession but that may not be true for everyone but I will tell you this if the ability to borrow ends for consumers and we end up ruining consumers ability to spend because maybe job losses hit at the same time as people can't borrow any more then maybe Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley will be right Mike Wilson says the Bulls the equity the stock Bulls are delusional for thinking that the margin expansion that companies have been so used to during the pandemic that recently hit a floor may see an upswing again in the second half of 2023 and 2024.
Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley says that's delusional don't think companies are all of a sudden going to become a whole lot more profitable anytime soon because really when job losses hit oh the real pain is going to be felt by everyone in fact Bloomberg economists put it this way they say we expect stagflation light that's their reference cyflation light has very few historical examples but it does make you wonder about the phrase this time is different which is a dangerous phrase sometimes the most four dangerous words in finance stagflation-like would look something like a zero to one percent growth for our GDP with inflation sitting around three percent by the end of 2023 or 2024.
now the Atlanta fed now GDP report puts us at about a 1.7 percent GDP right now in May of 2023 but that might fall to between zero and one by the end of the year and if inflation's still three or four percent that's the inflation and that's not great because that means the FED is not likely to just hike in May and go away and then start cutting but instead we could actually see a repeat of what we saw in the 1990s which was rather than hiking then pausing and then cutting the FED hiked and paused and then hiked again they did have a little cut in between there but they were a little more volatile in what they were planning under or what they what they actually acted upon and so this would likely severely hurt markets especially since markets are pricing and rate cuts at the end of the year not rate hikes so this is dangerous obviously everything is predicated on what happens with the CPI data releases uh over the next six weeks between the May fed meeting and ultimately the next fed meeting that the Federal Open Market Committee has now it's important first we've got May 3rd fomc meeting we already know that the next one isn't until June 14th but between May and June 14th we're actually going to get two more CPI reports inflation reports those are going to be critically important so you want to mark your calendar for May 10th and June 13th June 13th is just a day before the feds meeting in June and then we'll see if the pause actually comes to fruition now it's possible that a Fed pause could actually be good for stocks if you look at this particular chart but after a pause could be more important because if the FED pivots when the economy is already so broken we could see the stock market plummet now if the FED pivots or u-turns when they're done with their hiking cycle and the economy is still resilient at that point then maybe stocks could actually surge up so in other words nobody knows what the hell is going to happen now we may get some signals now but it's unlikely we're going to so if you're making bats that the fed's going to be super bullish in the short term until this data comes out I think it's probably a mistake instead we should be looking at some practical ways we can prepare ourselves number one be prepared for what the FED is saying trust them in what they're saying when they say higher for longer and that means you want to do a few things to make sure you are as well equipped as possible or Nimble as Nimble as possible in the event you lose your job or some sources of revenue dry up this is important make sure you are able to get rehired and you have all the skills necessary to make sure you can make as much money as possible of course obviously I implore you to check out making money and getting sh9t done faster that's the course linked down below it's the rebranded elite Hustlers it'll come with the artificial intelligence lectures for productivity on June 1st new content will also be added over time just get in before May 5th for that pre-sale deal but after this I want you to think about actionable plans for eliminating debt that you have take one step even right now think to yourself how much margin do you have if you don't know how much margin you have that's a problem figure it out first step one identify the problem how much credit card debt do you have how much student loan debt do you have how about car loans what debts do you have right now what can you do to start paying those off even one more payment a month so start rolling those things off now you know I'm a licensed financial advisor but this is just non-personal Financial advice here limit your debt the last thing you want in a stagflationary recession is to end up jobless and in debt because then you reset to zero this is why invest in yourself to maximize your skill set so that you can stay employed and you can keep making money but also limit your debt and I wholeheartedly believe that after you've done that take your excess capital and consider investing it in businesses wonderful businesses at fair prices as Charlie Munger says it is better to invest in wonderful businesses at fair prices than in Fair businesses at wonderful prices so maybe you're not getting the steal of a century in the price and yeah there might be some more downside risk but look at high quality businesses ones with high free cash flow and things that you think will have pricing power not in an inflationary environment when everybody has pricing power but in the long term like consider the AI Revolution we don't know what companies are going to make money but we do know that chips and servers are likely to do really well I guess I shouldn't say we know that with certainty because who knows maybe AI will be so good in the future it doesn't even need chips and servers anymore who knows but look for great quality companies that can adapt to change and when it comes to tomorrow I want you to think about Halo fed's going to give us 25 BP they'll signal a lot of jibber jabber that'll try to get them to June without creating too much excitement or too much pessimism but don't just think about tomorrow think about the next 10 years and where do you want to position yourself for the next 10 years starting now thank you
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