5 reasons Stanley Druckenmiller thinks the Fed is about to CUT Rates! How to do Asset Rotation?

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결론: 드러켄밀러는 달러 약세와 곧 있을 연준 금리 인하를 예상해 달러 숏 베팅을 하고 있다. [달러 숏 베팅] 노르웨이 국부펀드 행사에서 달러 숏이 현재 가장 확신하는 거래이며 그의 경력 중 가장 예측하기 어려운 시기라고 말했다. 통화 추세는 보통 2~3년 지속되며 달러지수는 작년 가을 20년 고점을 찍었다. 달러는 작년 11월 이후 약 10% 하락했으나 하락 추세는 끝나지 않았다고 봤다. [연준 금리 인하 근거 5가지] 첫째, 상업용 부동산 위기가 현실화되고 있다. 둘째, 미국 경기 악화로 대규모 해고가 진행 중이다. 셋째, 기업 부채 버블이 터지며 디폴트가 늘고 있다. 넷째, 2023년 파산이 급증하고 있다. 다섯째, 탈달러화가 빠르게 진행 중이다. [경기 지표] 1분기 미국 GDP 성장률은 연율 1.1%로 예상치 2%를 크게 하회했다. 연준은 9차례 연속 금리인상을 했으나 경기는 여전히 뜨겁다고 언급됐다. [언급 종목 및 방향] 베드배스앤비욘드: 자사주 매입으로 막대한 손실, 파산 신청(부정적 사례로 언급). 드러켄밀러 보유 종목: 일라이릴리(323달러 매수), 메타(125달러 매수, 이후 전량 매도), 엔비디아(146달러 매수), AMD(평균 66달러 매수), 랜브웨스턴(81달러), 셰브론(131달러), 옥시덴털페트롤리엄(68달러). 비트코인과 금은 롱 포지션을 보유 중이라고 언급됨. [리스크·조건] 인플레이션 하락 후 채권이 바닥을 찍었으나 성장 회복 신호는 아직 없고, 연준 인하를 기다리는 상황이다. [출연자 전망] 경기 둔화 속 연준 인하 → 달러 약세, 장기채 상승(TLT 반등 대기) 전망. [광고·기타] 영상 중 웹사이트 홍보 및 도서 광고가 포함되어 있어 투자 조언과 무관함.

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01. Stan Lee drunken Miller is betting against the U.S dollar why he thinks the FED is about to cut rates Stanley Freeman drunken Miller is a billionaire hedge fund manager and investor he was born in 1953 he founded his own Capital management firm in 1981 at age 28. today we are going to look into his 2.2 billion dollars Diversified stock portfolio and we are going to look into why he is shorting the dollar the market turns heads fast one minute she is Angry Black Widow and everything's turning red the next minute she becomes Goldilocks and she's handing out all the candies to all of the kids why you might ask well it's her cycle let's just use Mr drunken Miller here for example his investment philosophy is to adopt an active trading style similar to that of George Soros what that means is it depends on the economic data we are getting that day a big money move is being made according to inflation and deflation are we adding more fuel to the fire today or melting ice with the flames it all depends on the investment clog or asset rotation we are going to explore that today why he thinks the FED is about to cut rates I will explain it all right after this welcome back everyone to the audacious money witch Channel where we talk about macro economy stocks bonds and commodity markets if you like any of these topics you are intelligent that's why you're here and you know what to do and push my button if you like what you see in today's video because I can't push it from this side this video is brought to you by my new website and if you want to check it out please go to audaciousmoneywitch dot Square Dot site to check it out and let me know what you think about it in the comment section below if you play your cards right and completely submit like my good boys do then I will take you under my wing author of best-selling books goddess Cheryl my good boys always get rewarded handsomely you are such a good boy you like hearing that don't you you want to get into the bookstore you want it to be real you want it to be true you want to be my client don't you and here is my clients collaboration book adversity equals success such an amazing book with such incredible authors order your copy today and my client Teddy Easy's book Wicked [ __ ] perfume it is a femdom novel and it's about money stockings and the stock market order your copy today drunken Miller said he is shorting the US dollar speaking at an event hosted by Norway's Sovereign wealth fund he said the move is his only confident trade and what he sees as the most unpredictable period of his career one area uncomfortable is I'm short the US dollar he said currency Trends tend to run for two or three years we have had a long run higher the U.S dollar Index which compares the Greenback against a basket of other Global currencies hit 20-year highs last fall thanks to aggressive monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve but it's a rally that druckenmiller wasn't a part of it probably the biggest Miss of my career he was saying that he missed the 20 gain last year from uup which is if you want to Long Dollar in hindsight short treasury last year would be more profitable but the FED didn't see inflation coming the dollar has fallen by nearly 10 percent since November but the deuce Queen Capital Founders said the downtrend is not over that's because he thinks the Federal Reserve will soon have to start cutting interest rates to respond to an economic downturn drunken Miller also cited the Dollar's weaponization as another factor in his short bet alluding to Western sanctions on Russia last year that froze its foreign exchange Reserves in response to moscow's invasion of Ukraine but for many dependent on the dollar for trade the move sparked efforts to use other currencies drunken Miller pointed to Brazilian president Luz anacio Lula de Silva who recently called for the brics countries to create a new currency and you have a Lula running around asking why we have to do trade in the US dollar and he's right to drunken Miller said one reason we know from his portfolio is that drunken Miller is long both Bitcoin and gold if you want to know his rest of the stock picks from 2022 keep watching there are five reasons why drunken Miller thinks the FED is about to cut rates that's just the opposite of last year last year dollar rise long Bond down rates up this year he expects dollar down long Bond up and rates cut here are the reasons number one we were warned that a great commercial real estate crisis would be coming and now it is here in fact we just witnessed another massive default number two we were warned that there would be widespread layoffs as economic conditions in the United States deteriorated sadly that is now happening all around us for example on Monday accounting firm Ernest and Young announced that they will be laying off thousands of highly paid workers number three we were warned that the largest corporate debt bubble in the history of the world would eventually burst and now corporations are beginning to default on their depths at a rate that should deeply alarm all of us number four we were warned that we would witness a dramatic surge in bankruptcies in 2023 and that is precisely what is happening number five we were warned that the rest of the world would eventually start rejecting the US dollar and now D dollarization is happening at a stunning pace that's why the FED will have to cut rates soon U.S economic growth slowed to an annualized and seasonal adjusted rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of this year as businesses rebalance their inventories and pulled back on spending amid punishing raid hikes from the Federal Reserve the slowdown in gross domestic products the broadest measure of economic activity was Far Below Economist expectations of 2 percent and represents a much slower Pace compared to the previous two quarters the January to March period was also marked in its later weeks by mounting fears that a meltdown in the banking sector and a pending debt ceiling crisis could trigger a recession the GDP report affirms that the U.S economy has lost momentum in recent months with many economists also forecasting a recession later in the year the Federal Reserve has been striving for months to cool the economy which has remained white hot despite nine straight raid hikes business Investments are often made through credit so higher borrowing costs coupled with slowing economic activity can curb those Investments but that also varies depending on the size of a firm speaking of the size it matters do you know Bed Bath and Beyond is still trading at 51 million dollars what 51 million dollars Bed Bath and Beyond made plenty of mistakes that led to this week's bankruptcy filing among the most consequential was the 11.8 billion dollars it has spent since 2004.

02. to buy back its own shares the 11.8 billion dollars Bed Bath and Beyond spent on its own stock since 2004. comes to more than twice the 5.2 billion dollars in depth it had on its books in its most recent SEC filing a dab load that proved crushing for the company it's a sad situation for this meme stockholders now let's look at what kind of stock drunken Miller holds in his portfolio 18 of the portfolio is in health care Lilly and Corporation it's a big Pharma Corporation he bought in at 323 dollars 23 of the portfolio is in technology meta platforms he bought it at 125 dollars per share Nvidia Court he bought it at 146 dollars per share AMD his average price paid is at 66 dollars per share I also bought meta at a hundred dollars a share back when Jim Cramer was crying then it went to 88 dollars I regret I didn't buy more though despite how you feel about the company we really need to take emotions out of it when you're making investment decisions there is no room for emotions you need to put those aside emotions I have sold all my meta shares as of this video 14 of his Holdings are consumer discretionary lamb Weston Holdings incorporation at 81 dollars per share 14 of the portfolio is in energy he bought chaperon Corp at 131 dollars per share Occidental Petroleum at 68 per share from 2021 to 2022 inflation Rises growth recovery we have seen Wall Street sell cyclical growth information technology stocks like meta and Nvidia and buy into cyclical value commodity oil and gas stocks after inflation overheat Peaks out at 9.1 percent growth is weakening then Wall Street started to sell oil and gas stocks and start to get into Health Care stocks and utility it's called defense of value stocks and get into money market funds and get paid four to five percent yield as inflation Falls we saw bonds finally bottomed big Tech was back in play but not small growth because there is no growth recovery yet because the FED hasn't cut rates yet to stimulate growth yet so there is no reflation that's why TLT has not popped yet it's all waiting on the FED now Tick Tock you are such a good boy for watching my video right till the end bye