저자: AudaciousMoneyWitch채널출연자 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 Bill Ackman의 인플레이션 경고(금리 인상이 AI 투자 비용을 가격에 전가해 물가를 오히려 높인다는 주장)를 소개하고, Cathie Wood의 '유가 30달러, 전기차로 석유 수요 소멸' 주장을 반박한다. 운송 수요 58%·전체 석유 소비 73%가 전기화 불가능하다는 수치, 미국 전력망 노후화와 정전 사례, 발전 연료 중 화석연료 비중 58% 등을 근거로 든다. 과거 유가 급등 사례를 들어 장기적으로 유가 300달러 가능성을 제시하며 에너지주 보유를 권한다.
다듬은 글
People tend to make up colorful stories when their money is at stake or when they plan to hit the jackpot. Take, for example, billionaire investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Square. In the chaotic spring of 2020, during the initial panic over the lockdown, he went live with an apocalyptic warning. He declared that the economy was heading for a deep depression, and hotel stocks like Hilton Worldwide would essentially depreciate to zero.
Now, you know, look at Hilton stock. We are a major shareholder of Hilton. Hilton is the very "canary in the mine" (distress signal). This is an incredibly capitalized, amazing, dominant global company that doesn't actually own that many hotels. She's just collecting royalties. Fell from 120 to 50. Okay, they'll fall to zero, along with every other hotel company in the world.
You know, Park Hotels and Resorts, these stocks fell from 33 to 4. This is a spin- off from Hilton. Why did they fall from 33 to 4? Because every hotel in the country will be closed. Everyone to the one. Wait. Wait just a second. Um, you're saying Hilton will depreciate to zero. I mean, I know, again, I'm a big shareholder.
I'm saying that if we let this continue the way we're letting it go, every hotel company in the world, understand that, is the end. Now let me... So this is a very, very pessimistic view , okay? And I was extremely pessimistic, but I became an optimist, you know? And the reason why I became optimistic and why I was aggressively buying stocks, including Hilton today, is clear?
And I bought them all fall: Hilton, Restaurant Brands, Starbucks. He is known for warning CNBC viewers that hell was coming . Less than a week later, having scared the market to death, he quietly closed his credit default swaps, emerged with a net profit of over $2 billion, and used every cent of those proceeds to buy up the very stocks he had just been sobbing about en masse.
He reinvested in Hilton Worldwide and other depreciating assets, betting everything on a strong recovery. Hilton didn't just recover, it soared in value by more than 400%. How does a person manage to pull off such a trick? It's simple. He's cunning, he controls billions of dollars, and as a member of the elite billionaire club, he has access to better information, better timing, and far greater leverage than any average retail investor sitting at home.
He always has a plan and catches big macro trends long before the crowd knows about them. Today, we are looking at a very similar opportunity. Only this time it's the complete opposite of a crash. In 2020, we experienced a classic deflationary demand shock. Oil prices then fell to minus $37 per barrel, as the world came to a complete standstill.
The tanks were filled to the brim, and the sellers paid people just to take these barrels away. Today, we are not seeing a sudden cessation of demand. We are facing a massive supply shock. Instead of a quick, sharp recession like in 2020, we are heading for a long and debilitating inflationary spiral.
That's why I invested my own money in oil companies and diesel fuel producers. In this video, I'll break down what Bill Ackman is warning about regarding inflation and why raising rates by the Federal Reserve will actually push prices up, not down, as 99% of Wall Street believes. Then we'll look at Katie Wood's response and why her bright story falls apart once confronted with reality.
We also believe that oil prices will decline quite significantly as transportation shifts to electric grids. And these networks do not use oil . 57% of oil consumption is accounted for by transportation. Therefore, we believe that as transportation transitions to electric grids, the need for oil will decrease.
We also note, and there is a graph that shows, that during each crisis, the price of oil drops to $30. We believe that this will not be a crisis, except for oil companies and energy-dependent countries , but we think that it could happen again, but this time it will become a sustainable trend. I am going to examine her arguments step by step, comparing them with Ackman's macroeconomic view.
The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates again, and experts in Washington insist that this will help bring inflation under control. Bill Ackman thinks they got it all mixed up. He argues that the enormous amounts of capital being invested in artificial intelligence have fundamentally changed the way higher borrowing costs are distributed in the economy.
In his opinion, the situation is turning into a dangerous vicious circle. The more the Fed raises rates, the higher inflation becomes, forcing the central bank to raise rates even higher again and again. What if financial models from a century ago are no longer applicable to our modern world? What if the Fed is operating under outdated guidelines?
Ekman noted that the central bank made a critical mistake by raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%. He argued that traditional tools to combat inflation do not work at all when megacorporations are engaged in an “ arms race” in building AI infrastructure. Under normal circumstances, higher interest rates curb inflation by making money more expensive.
When borrowing becomes expensive, ordinary families and businesses tighten their belts, cut spending, and stop borrowing. A decline in consumer demand naturally forces sellers to lower prices, and inflation slows. But the crux of Ekman's argument is that the potential benefits of AI are so vast that tech giants are ignoring the high costs of borrowing.
They will continue to spend tens of billions of dollars on data centers, advanced microchips, and powerful energy generation, regardless of interest rate levels. Ekman asked a simple question that every investor should consider. Why should higher interest rates at this unique moment in history drive down prices if interest costs are simply built into the final cost of every good and service?
Unless corporate demand for technology declines, these higher financing costs do not halt projects. They are simply added to the price tag of the final product. Higher rates become additional costs that companies pass directly to the consumer, pushing inflation up, not down. The end result is a vicious cycle where high rates actively create the very inflation the Fed is trying to combat, provoking even more hikes in the future.
We are now moving into uncharted territory with the deployment of AI, which consumes unprecedented amounts of energy resources. When I say "energy," I mean diesel, natural gas, and heavy oil. These are vital resources supplied by the very energy companies you should have in your portfolio to survive this transition period.
I've already mentioned this concept on the channel within neo-officialism, which explains why higher interest rates have actually fueled inflation for several years in a row. Much of our current inflation problem is not caused by ordinary people spending too much money in stores. It is caused by an acute shortage of basic resources, whether it is affordable housing, diesel fuel, or new oil wells.
When the Fed makes borrowing expensive, energy producers stop investing in large, risky, long-term oil projects because debt is too expensive. The lack of new investment is limiting future energy production, creating a massive structural deficit, and causing fuel prices to skyrocket. On the other side of the debate are famous fund managers like Katie Wood, who is not a billionaire at all, but continues to walk the financial channels, telling complete tales.
She constantly assures investors that oil prices will fall to $30 a barrel and stay there forever. Its main thesis is based on the idea that global transport is rapidly transitioning to electric networks. Now let's look at the real numbers. Transportation accounts for approximately 58% of global oil demand.
This leaves 42% of global oil consumption that is completely independent of electric vehicles: power generation, industrial manufacturing, petrochemicals, and heavy construction. Even if you focus solely on that 58% related to transportation, how exactly is this magical grid transition supposed to happen overnight?
First, the American power grid is already outdated, fragile, and operating at nearly full capacity. In America, our power grid is failing . It is collapsing. And the simple reason for this is that all the power grids were built at about the same time . All the transformers, all the equipment is very, very old.
It just breaks. It is very old. We will start to see more and more outages. Just yesterday we were in Oregon. The lights went out completely in the restaurant where we were . This is a great example of why I tell you that you have to be prepared. This is the fourth or fifth time we've lost power in the last two weeks.
I just opened my electricity bill. $526.86. This is madness. How are people supposed to live on anyway ? There are no lights here in St. George, Utah. It seems like it's all over the city. So, I'm at the gym, all the treadmills have turned off, everything around has plunged into darkness. Strange, strange things, man.
The year is 2026. We have been without electricity for 14 hours now. The light went out yesterday at 7:00 PM. It is 9:00 am. We do not have the possibility to prepare breakfast . I put everything in the freezer last night, so it's like a refrigerator in there now. All our food stayed fresh. So I cook us breakfast outside on our Blackstone grill on the screened porch.
Let's go to the hotel. There is no light in the hotel. There is chaos in the lobby. Then the hotspot in my electric car runs out of power. People, what is going on in the world? It's true, we were just having dinner when suddenly the power went out. Our power grid is very fragile. With massive AI data centers coming online every month, consuming gigawatts of constant energy, ordinary homeowners are already seeing their electricity bills skyrocket.
How the hell is this same congested grid going to be able to charge millions of heavy commercial vehicles like Tesla Semi electric trucks? How many of these electric trucks are actually on the roads now? A quick search shows that there are currently fewer than 200 Tesla semis operating on public roads.
Compare this tiny drop in the ocean to the more than 12 million diesel trucks that ply the country every day. There are approximately 280 million gasoline-powered passenger cars in North America alone . How do you expect an outdated power grid to suddenly withstand the connection of hundreds of millions of electric cars and not collapse?
What about aviation? Air travel is a key component of the global transportation system . Are Tesla or SpaceX selling commercial electric passenger planes that the public somehow doesn't know about? Of course not. Flights of thousands of miles require aviation fuel, which is obtained by direct distillation of crude oil.
What about sea freight? Huge container ships carrying consumer goods across the oceans rely almost entirely on heavy marine fuel to power their powerful engines. Tesla is not building battery-powered cargo ships to cross the Pacific Ocean. Think about it this way. An individual may consciously decide to drive a little less, use public transportation, or buy a small electric hatchback to save on gas.
But diesel fuel is a resource that modern society cannot give up, no matter how hard it tries. It 's virtually impossible to eliminate diesel from your daily life whether you eat food, wear clothes, or order goods online. Emergency services that keep your neighborhood safe, such as fire trucks and ambulances, run on diesel fuel.
School buses run on diesel. When diesel prices rise, city budgets are cut , and your local taxes go up to cover it. Cattle and livestock, transported from farms to processing plants and ultimately to the local supermarket, travel in heavy diesel trucks. When diesel prices rise, the price of beef and chicken rises with it.
Diapers that are shipped from factories to Walmart store shelves are transported across the country in diesel trucks. Higher fuel costs mean parents are paying more for essential baby items. The huge backup generators that keep hospitals running during power outages and AI data centers running during power surges are powered by diesel.
Healthcare costs are rising, and hosting the digital applications you rely on every day is becoming more expensive. The tractors, plows, and combines that farmers use to plant and harvest wheat, corn, and grain run on diesel fuel. When diesel fuel goes up in price, the price of a loaf of bread or a packet of cereal also goes up.
Even the huge mining dump trucks that extract lithium, copper, and cobalt for electric vehicle batteries run on powerful diesel engines. When diesel prices rise, the cost of producing an electric car also increases. Even if every passenger car in the world magically became electric tomorrow, 73% of global oil consumption would still not disappear.
Trucks, dry cargo ships, and commercial aircraft depend on refined petroleum products, which are currently facing the greatest supply shortage. Demand for industrial plastics , synthetic materials, and agrochemicals continues to grow regardless of the situation in the consumer auto market . An electric car sitting in someone's garage was almost certainly delivered to the dealership by a diesel-burning car transporter truck.
On top of that , major foreign suppliers such as China have already begun restricting exports of petroleum products to protect their own domestic reserves. So how can global transportation seamlessly transition to grid-powered power in the near future ? This is an absolute fantasy that only exists in marketing presentations.
Even assuming the impossible that all transport miraculously plugs into an outlet, where does this electricity actually come from? Over 58% of the electricity on the grid is generated directly by burning fossil fuels. Natural gas provides about 41% of electricity, and this gas is extracted by the same oil and gas companies that some say are becoming obsolete.
Nuclear power accounts for about 18%, coal for 17 %, while solar energy is only about 7% of the total. Many inexperienced investors are afraid to hold energy stocks during market downturns. In fact, what is to be feared is not energy stocks during a long-term " bull" commodity market, but rather what is happening now.
Inflation will remain high for much longer than the mainstream financial media wants to admit, simply because energy prices are trending upward. If you look at long-term historical charts, the $300 oil price forecast is not just wild speculation. This is a reading of a clear structural signal given by real market participants.
Refer to history for context. In the 1940s, oil traded near $3 a barrel until World War II triggered a huge surge in military demand. In the 1970s, oil prices increased more than 10-fold after geopolitical emergencies and supply embargoes transformed global markets, and later the Iranian revolution pushed the price of oil to nearly $40 a barrel by 1980.
This represented a staggering 1,300% growth in just one decade. Between 2000 and 2008, oil prices experienced another massive 270% increase. This jump was caused not by war, but by the large-scale industrialization of China and India, when hundreds of millions of people moved to modern cities and began to consume huge amounts of energy.
Today we are witnessing a perfect storm in which all of these historical factors have come together at the same time. We have an endless energy hunger due to the development of artificial intelligence, rising geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and a serious structural shortage of oil and diesel fuel caused by a decade of deep underinvestment in energy infrastructure.
A 200% increase from current base levels would easily push the price of crude oil to $360 per barrel with potential peaks reaching even higher values before the price stabilizes at a higher long-term level. When you compare the physical reality of the global supply chain with the bright market forecasts, who do you think has a better understanding of the real state of affairs?
Is this a deflationary fantasy of $30 oil or a structural supply reality that points to $300 oil ? Let me know what you think about it in the comments below.
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