저자: AudaciousMoneyWitch · 외국인
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영상은 13F 공시 분석을 통해 버핏·버리·드러켄밀러의 매매를 소개한다. 소매판매와 실업수당 청구 등 지표로 증시 상승 배경을 설명하고, 버크셔의 Ulta Beauty 매수와 애플 매도를 언급한다. 시장 타이밍은 불가능하다는 Jeremy 발언을 비판하며 장기 투자 관점은 유지하되 손실 종목은 빨리 정리하라고 조언한다. 버리는 여러 종목을 매도해 약세 신호로 해석하고, 드러켄밀러는 엔비디아 대부분을 매도하고 마이크로소프트 비중을 줄였다고 설명한다. AI는 닷컴 버블과 유사하게 과열과 저평가가 공존한다고 본다.
다듬은 글
welcome back everyone to the audacious money witch Channel where we talk about investing and trading and a lot of fun things wow what a wild ride in the market in this video I want to share my thoughts on what just happened in the stock market why is everything up so huge recently why Jeremy's video is so dangerous to your portfolio yes he just said everyone sucks at investing in order to sell his website and courses also I want to show you three musty updates from the 13f filings from three of my most admired investors drunken Miller Dr bre and papa Buffett this is going to be a fun one there are several reasons why the stock market is going up right now first we just got a much better than expected retail sales number with 1% versus 0.4% expected unemployment claims we have less people 227,000 versus 236,000 expected this explains why TLT was down today while the stocks are up Walmart also reported great numbers this is adding to the soft Landing narrative which is fake by the way then we have Warren Buffett's birkshire Hathaway acquired stakes in cosmetic store chain Ulta Beauty Beauty which automatically lifted up my Honest Company stock because honest uses both Ulta beauty and Walmart as their big Distributors birkshire owned about 690,000 Ulta beauty shares worth 266.00 million as of June 30th ala Beauty shares soared 14% reflecting a belief that the company's won birkshire and perhaps Buffett stamp of approval Wednesday's filing did not say whether Buffett did the buying though his portfolio managers Todd Colmes and Ted Wellshire normally oversee berkshire's smaller stock Investments well better known for owning Geico car insurance and BNSF railroad and Apple stock Buffett's Omaha Nebraska based conglomerate has stakes in many consumer and Retail businesses its business portfolio includes Brands such as Benjamin Moore Dairy Queen duracel and Fruit of the Loom and about $2.5 billion of stock in grocery chain Kroger Ala Beauty based in boiling Brook Illinois has about 1395 stores in all 50 US states Buffett sold snowflake must be because Buffett doesn't like snowflakes new CEO since he had recently hired so many new employees making it two times of their Workforce year-over-year but the stock price is heading in the wrong direction Papa Buffett sold 49% of his most loved Apple now it's confirmed birkshire sold 77.2 billion doar of stocks During the period including about 390 million shares of apple and bought just $1.6 billion doar sales included a nearly $1 billion doll investment in cloud computing company Snowflake and berkshire's remaining stake in Media Company Paramount Global the selling left Burkshire with 276.50 million dollar of stock in Bank of America its second largest stock holding in the third quarter it stopped selling at least temporarily after the bank share price fell 12% from mid July during the second quarter Burkshire also reduced its stakes in Capital One Floor and Decor Holdings Louisiana Pacific and T-Mobile and added to stakes in chop and Sirus XM Buffett turns 94 on August 30th he has run birkshire since 1965 the first rule of investing in Papa Buffett's book is never lose money let's see what Jeremy tells us timing the market right the truth is time in the market beats time in the market it always has and it always will and anybody that tries to tell you different is just not dealing in realities the realities are you have to stay invest in the market over time there are certain time periods if you want to invest heavier you can or invest lighter you can right but at the end of the day you've got to stay invested in the market over time cuz you can't time the market you literally can't anybody that thinks they can time the market to me they're not intelligent because real intelligence in my personal opinion understands you cannot predict when exactly the stock market's going to crash and when the stock market's going to go up there's never been anybody in history to do that there never will be anybody in history to do that it doesn't matter how much you study an econom ICS it doesn't matter how much you've studied in relation to companies and and business cycles and I've read all the books and I've studed it all I tell you I can't predict what the Market's going to do over the next 5 months or the next even 5 days or 5 years for that matter right I can tell you over the long term the Market's going to likely go up a lot I can tell you certain companies are going to do very well likely but without a doubt you can't time the market and so a lot of people fall into this trap overall it's one of the reasons they suck at investing because one minute they're all in their portfolio right next minute they're margining out money cuz they're so bullish Market turns against them next minute they're selling all their stocks because they think it's the end of the world they think that the stock market's going to crash now and they're in and they're out and they're in and they're out and they're completely unstable right you cannot time this Market at all Warren Buffett he can't time the market he'll tell you himself he can't time the market and I know damn well I've studied every basically move Warren Buffett's made over his career and I can tell you Warren Buffett can't time the market that man was buying railroad stocks at all-time highs right before the great financial crisis hit what a mistake that was right uh he's been selling and building cash now for 12 years while the market just went Higher and Higher and Higher and Higher right so at the end of the day even the big Buffet can't time the market since he is so much better than Warren Buffett he wants you to be in the market always which means never sell which means your winner becomes your loser because you didn't take your profit let's go check out Michael B next Dr bur also known as The Big Short investor he successfully predicted the 208 housing crash and financial crisis he sold my Square block stock gold trust and BP oil and energy stocks he bought more Baba and beu Chinese stocks he also bought Shift 4 payments which is another fintech company this doesn't mean we should copy his trade but overall all he is bearish because look he is clearly sold more than he bought in q1 of 20124 his long stocks portfolio value is $103 million in Q2 guess what $52 million so when he sells half that means trouble ahead if you're new to the channel you should know that Jeremy loves to tell investors to take risks and never sell time in the market is better than timing the market that all sounds great if you are in the right stocks but what if it's the wrong stock like a Foot Locker which he sold out of the chef Voyager digital and smile direct Club if you have gains on the wrong stock you need to take the money and run the last thing you want to do is wait till they go under and never sell because till that point it's worth nothing okay time to get drunken Miller on this stage Stanley is a genius he timed Nvidia perfectly at the bottom he has reduced his stake to just 24,6 shares as of June 30th and cashed out 98% of his max position 9.5 million plus shares he once held his Nvidia trade made almost 500 million profit in less than two years drunken Miller never lost money from Trading Nvidia because he knows when to take take profit and the importance of it what a legendary performance he also sold 64% of his Microsoft position this is what drunken Miller said if we were all sitting here in 1999 talking about the internet I don't think anybody would have estimated it would be as big as it got in 20 years we didn't have the iPhone we didn't have Uber we didn't have Facebook Etc and yet if you bought the ndaq in 1999 it went down 80% before that all came to fruition that's not going to happen with AI but it could rhyme AI could rhyme with the internet as we go through all this Capital spending we need to do the payoff well it's incrementally coming in by the day the big payoff might be four to 5 years from now so AI might be a little overhyped right now but underhyped longterm Jeremy just wants your money man he doesn't care if you take profits or your profit became losses because if drunken Miller Dr bre and papa Buffett were right can you handle NASDAQ going down 80% that's why he said you suck bro but I think all of you guys watching are wise and intelligent people we are going to make a lot of money together hit the like button if you are in congrats on the honest win
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