Why Michael Burry Ken Griffin and Charlie Munger are so bullish on China but bearish in the US Econ.

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결론: 진행자는 미국 경기와 시장 과열(FOMO) 우려를 강조하며 미국 주식 랠리가 취약하다고 보지만, 중국 자산에 대해서는 버리·그리핀·멍거의 낙관을 소개한다. 중국 투자 관련: 버리와 멍거는 최근 13F 공시에서 중국 주식(알리바바 등)을 계속 보유·매수 중이며, 멍거는 알리바바 투자를 가장 큰 실수 중 하나라고 후회했다고 전해진다. 진행자는 이들이 5천만 달러 이상을 중국 주식에 걸고 있다고 언급한다. 중국 낙관 근거: 중국이 금리를 인하하고 양적완화를 하는 반면 서방은 반대 방향이라는 점이 주된 이유로 제시된다. 그리핀은 중국 성장률이 약 5% 이상일 것으로 보며, 미국 대선 결과와 무관하게 중국 전략을 바꾸지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 다만 중국 경기 반등은 기대에 못 미쳤다. 미국 경기 관련: 그리핀은 여전히 미국 경기침체를 예상하며, 연준이 2023년 한 차례 더 인상 후 멈출 것으로 본다. 금리·유동성 관련: 연준이 긴축을 멈추려면 시장이 붕괴해야 한다는 것이 진행자의 논지다. 일본은행의 완화 정책 유지와 약 3조 달러 규모 글로벌 마진콜·엔 캐리트레이드 청산 위험을 경고하며, 기술주와 달러/엔 간 상관관계가 90%로 높아졌다고 지적한다. 원유·인플레이션 관련: 미국 석유 시추기 수가 연간 기준 감소로 돌아섰고, 셰일 크루 감소는 향후 유가·인플레이션 재가속 위험을 시사한다. 인플레이션이 재발하면 시장이 폭락해 볼커 2.0 같은 상황이 될 수 있다고 본다. 포지셔닝: 투기자들이 채권 매도(인플레이션 베팅)와 경기둔화 베팅을 동시에 하는 등 붐비는 거래가 많다고 지적한다. 도이체방크 리서치는 미국 경기침체 확률을 거의 100%로 보며, 연착륙은 역사적으로 전례가 없다고 평가했다. 진행자 전망: 미국 시장은 과열된 Ponzi 랠리이며 경기사이클 부정(cycle denial)이 붐비는 거래라는 입장.

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01. why Michael burry Ken Griffin and Charlie Munger are so bullish on China despite a disappointing rebound most investors don't understand or subscribe to the Elliott wave theory that's why it works if everyone was aware of their social mood and their proclivity for getting caught up in Market fomo they wouldn't be doing what they're doing right now which is going all in since the global all-time high we have watched as risk and complacency have both grown in logstap which means that Bulls can be tactically right while being totally wrong as to the inevitable outcome think of it as a winning Gambler who doubles down with each hand until he ultimately gives it all back Thursday was the highest greed reading in at least two years everyone who is riding this Ponzi rally higher has no exit strategy other than to believe they alone will get out first no one has informed them that's not possible and they can't figure it out for themselves why Ken Griffin Michael burry and Charlie Munger are bullish on China but not the U.S economy you're already a success it is done when you join the audacious money witch Club this video is brought to you by my website if you are a good boy go to audacious moneywitch dot Square Dot site to add more meaning into your life dess Cheryl my good wa hmm join the audacious money witch Club don't you Michael burry and Charlie Munger are keep buying and holding Chinese dogs from their recent 13f filings although Munger said I regret it Alibaba is one of the biggest mistakes I ever made in thinking about Alibaba I got Charmed by their position in the Chinese internet and didn't stop to realize they are still a darn retailer despite all his mean comments about Baba he is still holding 300 000 shares action speaks louder than words Charlie we know they have over 50 million dollars betting on these Chinese dogs if you want me to dig deep into Chinese Amazon Baba stock hit the like button to let me know if you're interested I think the main reason is because China is cutting rates doing QE while the West is doing the opposite Citadel founder Ken Griffin is still anticipating a U.S recession but holds a more bullish view on China according to Bloomberg in an interview in Hong Kong the billionaire said he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates one more time in 2023 then stop meanwhile Griffin holds a bullish outlook on China although the world's second largest economy has fallen short expectations for a bigger post lockdown rebound he anticipates economic growth there to be beijing's own Target even as broader investor confidence remains tepid there's a general level of uncertainty as to the level of growth in China today Griffin said noting that his firm anticipates an expansion of more than five percent were actually more constructive on growth he added that regardless of who wins the next U.S presidential election Citadel strategy in the region will not change the scale and scope of the Chinese Equity Market is incredibly attractive to us as investors he said in May Institutional Investor named Griffin as the highest earning hedge fund manager after citadel's Flagship fund climbed 38.1 percent in 2022 this week the FED finally paused Reed hikes for one meeting while still vowing to tie in later in the year the ECB tightened again yesterday and Friday the bank of Japan continued their disastrous free money experiment which now looms like a democal sword over global markets a three trillion dollar Global Margin Call merely waiting for risk off carry trade unwind does not require a boj monetary policy change all it requires is a massive Yen rally likes a witch took place last fall during the Yen intervention or Global risk-off event would cause massive short covering either way note the correlation between tech stocks and the USD to the Japanese Yen Carrie pear since the Yen intervention last October whereas before they were negatively correlated now they are 90 percent correlated the irony for the Bulls is that the more they front run a real fed pause the less likely it is to happen why because investor fomo feeds back into risk Premia and loosens Financial conditions which means that investors can only get themselves more and more looped up ahead of another tightening what investors seem to forget is that the Las fomo melt up also took place during the week of an fomc meeting in January of this year that was merely wave a this pullback will make that one seem like a picnic in other words the only way the FED can stop tightening is if markets crash otherwise they have to keep tightening until markets crash that is the bull case in a nutshell also what happened in 2008 and more famously in 1981 was that inflation re-accelerated as soon as the FED paused U.S oil rig count plunges to an annual decline what the f stimulate inflation Baker Hughes just reported that the total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S tumbled by 15 last week to 687 down 40 rigs on a year-over-year basis however the entire rig count drop was driven by oil rigs gas rigs were unch which pushed the oil rig count into an annual decline down for five straight weeks this is the first annual decline since May 2019 the questions we have are simple with rigs now down almost 10 percent from the February highs will oil and gas extraction industry jobs start to decline will inflation coming back due to supply shock again the number of fracking Crews have fallen for four weeks in a row losing a total of 34.

02. year over year it is 23 fewer than a year ago that drop in oil rig suggests U.S crude production is due to decline which should all things being equal imply higher oil and gas prices if this trend continues this is bad if we get higher inflation print at any point in time from this week onward then markets will be in meltdown mode it will be volcker 2.0 another crowded trade is short treasury bonds which makes no sense whatsoever speculators are betting that the FED can thread the needle between raid hikes and hard Landing so they crowd tag which is a deflation trade while shorting bonds which is a more inflationary trade nevertheless as we see they don't have a good track record speculators still don't believe the FED will hike twice more this year in summary what it all comes down to is the fact that cycle denial is a very crowded trade the German multinational Banks top research team believes Washington has sparked a boombas cycle that now is nearing its end stage douchebanks taught mines put U.S recession chance near a hundred percent and say avoiding a hard Landing would be historically unpresented my book believe you are worthy