저자: AudaciousMoneyWitch · 외국인
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결론: 제이미 다이먼 등은 부채한도 협상 이후 연준 QT와 재무부 현금 재건에 따른 유동성 흡수를 경고하며 리스크오프를 권고함. 부채한도와 디폴트 리스크: 재무부 현금 약 570억 달러, 디폴트 가능성이 있는 금요일 전후 잔고가 음수로 떨어질 수 있다고 언급됨. 무디스 추정으로 디폴트 시 1주차 150만 개, 2개월 내 800만 개 일자리 손실 가능성 제시됨. 유동성과 금리: 3개월물 국채금리는 5.4%로 2001년 이후 최고 수준, 1년 전 1.03%, 2년 전 0.01%. 30년물 금리 4%로 3월 이후 처음 상회. 다이먼은 6~7% 이상 장기금리 대비 필요성을 강조하고 예금 베타(예금 이탈) 확대 가능성을 경고함. 재무부 현금 재건 효과: 협상 타결 후 재무부 일반계정(TGA)이 6월말 5,500억 달러, 석 달 뒤 6,000억 달러로 급증할 것으로 추정. 3분기말까지 1조 달러 이상 단기채 발행이 예상되며 BofA는 이를 0.25%p 금리인상과 유사한 경제 영향으로 평가. 은행 지급준비금 급감, 주식·신용시장에 부정적 영향 우려. QT와 RRP: 연준 대차대조표 축소(QT)로 예금이 감소하고 은행 실패 위험이 커질 수 있다고 주장. 역레포(RRP) 잔액은 약 2조~2.3조 달러 수준으로 언급되며 머니마켓펀드 자금 이동 가능성 제기. 시장 전망: JP모건은 부채한도 합의 실패 시 2011년보다 심한 주식 매도가 올 수 있다고 봄. 과거 S&P500이 2주간 17% 하락한 사례 언급. 한편 많은 월가 인사는 결국 합의가 이뤄질 것으로 예상. AI 주식 랠리가 새 강세장의 시작은 아니라는 경고도 있음. 출연자 견해: 유동성 순풍(글로벌 중앙은행 유동성)이 역풍으로 전환되는 중이며 연준 지급준비금 감소가 핵심이라고 보고, 리스크오프 쪽으로 강하게 기울어 있다고 밝힘. 영상 말미에는 저자의 도서 홍보가 포함됨.
다듬은 글
Jamie dimon warns can you and your company handle six percent or seven percent or higher long-term rates why QT will lead to more bank failures White House says 8 million jobs will be lost if U.S defaults on its step the three-month treasury bill yield has moved up to 5.4 percent its highest level since January 2001.
a year ago it was at 1.03 percent and two years ago it was at 0.01 percent a sign that people are worrying about debt ceiling talks falling apart even as Biden and McCarthy tried to assure the public that the U.S won't default we are nine days away from the depth ceiling deadline as of right now there's no deal here are the effects of a breach according to Moody's first week 1.5 million jobs lost raising the unemployment rate from 3.4 to 5 percent within two months eight million jobs lost raising the unemployment rate from 3.4 percent to 7.8 percent U.S 30-year yield Rises to 4 the first time since March why Jamie dimon warns everyone should be prepared for seven percent or higher rates why QT will lead to more bank failures you're already a success it is done when you join the audacious money witch Club this video is brought to you by my new website if you are a good boy go to audaciousmoneywitch.square Dot site to add more meaning into your life is Cheryl my good bo hmm join the audacious money witch Club don't you U.S default is possible this Friday treasury has 60 billion dollars left if spending continues at current elevated pace the balance will be negative 18 billion dollars by Friday the U.S treasury has 57 billion dollars in cash on hand while the government carries 31 trillion dollars in depth that's the equivalent of an average person having a thousand dollars in cash on hand and five hundred and forty three thousand eight hundred and fifty nine dollars in depth isn't that scary investors are tired of waiting for recession and are asking when they can buy stocks again we've been positioning for this recession for six quarters we're at the point where the average money manager and investor is mostly in defensives this explains this AI stocks rally don't be fooled into thinking this year's stock rally is the start of a new bull market looming behind Market fears over the prospect of a historic U.S default is the less discussed risk of what would allow a deal to resolve the debt ceiling impasse many on Wall Street predict lawmakers will ultimately reach an agreement likely averting a devastating debt default even if it goes down to the wire but that doesn't mean the economy will escape unscathed not just from the bruising standoff but also as a result of the treasury's efforts to return to business as usual once it can ramp up borrowing treasury will need to scramble to replenish its dwindling cash buffer to maintain its ability to pay its obligations through a deluge of treasury bill sales estimated at well over one trillion dollars by the end of the third quarter the supply burst would quickly drain liquidity from the banking sector raise short-term funding rates and tighten the screws on the U.S economy just as it's on the cusp of recession by Bank of America corpse estimate it would have the same economic impact as a quarter point interest rate hike higher borrowing costs in the wake of the Federal Reserves most aggressive tightening cycle in decades have already taken a toll on some firms and are slowly crimping economic growth against this backdrop we are especially wary of an eventual move by treasury to rebuild cash seeing potential for a massive reduction in Bank Reserves my bigger concern is that when the debt limit gets resolved and I think it will you are going to have a very very deep and sudden drain of liquidity this is not something that's very obvious but it's something that's very real and we've seen it before that such a drop in liquidity really does negatively affect risk markets such as equities and credit the upshot is that even after Washington gets past the latest standoff the Dynamics of the treasury's cash balance the U.S feds portfolio runoff program known as quantitative tightening and the pain of higher policy rates all stand to weigh on risk assets as well as the economy after a depth cap resolution the U.S cash stockpile the treasury general account should soar to 550 billion dollars as of the end of June from the current level of about 60 billion dollars and hit 600 billion dollars three months later according to the Department's most recent estimates a rebound will affect liquidity across the financial system because the cash pile operates like the government's checking account at the Fed sitting on the liability side of the central bank's balance sheet when the treasury issues more bills than it technically needs during a certain period its accounts Wells pulling cash out of the private sector and storing it in the Department's account at the Fed another important piece of the puzzle is the fed's reverse repurchase agreement facility dubbed the RRP which is where money market funds part cash with the Central Bank overnight at a rate of just over five percent that programmerly over two trillion dollars is also a liability at the Fed so if the treasury account increases but rrp's drop then the drain on reserves is lower money funds tendency to keep cash in rrps will most likely persist which could mean a sizable drain in Bank Reserves when the treasury's cash jumps and that would come as major central banks have already been siphoning off liquidity through aggressive tightening campaigns and efforts to unwind their balance sheets JP Morgan says failure to reach a debt limit deal could cause a worse stock sell-off than 2011.
when the S P 500 fell 17 in just two weeks under QT as fed Reserve shrink deposits must follow as such deposits are either forced to shift into T bills or are destroyed bank failures thus the main crisis is an inevitable side effect of fed tightening by now everyone knows that when it comes to Banks failing and capitalizing on it fewer as experienced as JP Morgan AKA JP Morgan which now has more than 13 percent of the nation's deposits and 21 of all credit card spending in other words there has never been a bank that is more systematically important than JP Moore gain and with every small bank failure Jamie diamonds Goliath is only getting bigger during JP Morgan's investor day on Monday the billionaire CEO said we haven't been through a quantitative tightening so we really don't know what's going to happen to deposits at all we've never had QT before it just started okay and you see huge distortions in the marketplace already we've never had the FED in the market like this with that RRP program ever they have 2.3 trillion dollars basically lent out to money funds so I think people should build into their mindset that they may have to move deposit beta more than they think and manage that so I mean if I was any bank or any company I'd be saying can you handle higher interest rates and surprise in deposits Etc by the way deposit beta as Jamie calls it for those unfamiliar is a polite way of saying Bank Run which is a less polite way of saying bank failure it is no surprise then that it is Jamie's sincerest wish for rates to keep Rising where do you think the rates will go we are shifting from a very significant Tailwind of global Central Bank liquidity over the last six months to probably a significant headwind what we really care about is reserves which should be falling so I'm strongly leaning to risk off at this point here is my client Teddy Easy's book Wicked perfume it is a femdom novel and it's about money the stock market and stockings such an amazing author with such incredible content order your copy today and my book believe you are worthy
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