저자: AudaciousMoneyWitch채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 채널은 AI 관련 대형 기술주 과열과 금리·인플레이션 리스크를 강조하며, 정부 대응과 국채 시장을 근거로 향후 위기 가능성을 경고한다. 금리·연준 관련: 연준 금리인상 기대가 커졌다고 전하며 6월 25bp 인상 확률을 약 41.5%로 제시했다. 7월 인하 확률은 4%, 9월은 26%로 본다. 캐나다 인플레이션이 4.3%에서 4.4%로 상승한 점도 언급했다. 기술주·AI 관련: AI 주식은 과열된 붐비는 거래(crowded trade)이며 AI 버블이 2001년 닷컴 버블보다 크다고 주장했다. 나스닥(QQQ)은 52주 신고가를 기록했다고 했다. 테슬라: 크레이머 등 발언을 인용해 장기 사이클상 상승 여력이 있다고 소개했으나, 머스크는 향후 12개월이 어렵다고 경고했다. 조정 시 매수, 랠리 시 일부 차익실현을 언급했다. 홈디포·소비: 홈디포 실적이 2002년 이후 최악의 매출 미스였고 연간 매출 전망을 -2%~-5%로 하향했다고 전했다. 소비 둔화 신호로 해석했다. 알리바바: 먼저 매수 후 미·중 긴장으로 일부 매도해 손실을 봤다는 워런 버핏·멍거 사례를 언급했다. 국채·인플레이션: TLT가 하락추세선을 이탈했고 국채 금리 상승이 우려된다고 했다. 공식 CPI가 실제보다 낮게 산출된다고 주장하며 실제 인플레이션은 두 배 수준일 수 있다고 했다. 정부 재정지출 확대가 인플레이션을 자극하고, 국채·달러 위기로 이어질 수 있다고 경고했다. 결론적 리스크: 연준이 2008년과 인플레이션을 제대로 예측하지 못했다고 비판하며, 정부는 위기를 솔직히 말하지 않으니 스스로 대비해야 한다는 메시지를 강조했다. 영상 말미에는 특정 도서 홍보가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
Charlie Monger lost big he just admits that buying this dog was a huge mistake why artificial intelligence is a crowded trade the depth ceiling is not priced in it's priced out further rate hikes are not priced in they are priced out recession is not priced in it's priced out how do we know because the most overvalued sector is now deemed a safe haven from risk you can't make this up investors are loading up on Mega cap Tech AI stocks as they turn more bearish according to Bank of America first off how could bearishness be at the highest levels of the year if tech is the most crowded trade to read this one would think that text dogs are safer than cash in what world is the most crowded Trade A Safe Haven the world of artificial intelligence where human intelligence is being Stripped Away I believe AI bubble of today is bigger than the internet.com bubble in 2001 a few months ago inflation pushed long Bond down which dragged tech stocks down now bond yield has nothing to do with NASDAQ anymore in fact QQQ just made a new 52-week high that is higher than last August High which dog did Charlie Munger buy that he made a huge mistake and regrets it now I will explain it all right after this I like that welcome back everyone oh no you don't have to push the like button if you don't want t if you' breaking fed news in an AI reality fed Futures now show uh 41.5 chance of a 25 basis point raid hike in June up from around five percent last week in a week with 14 fed speakers the FED is not convinced that the fight against inflation is over expectations are shifting rapidly Futures now see just a four percent chance of rate cuts beginning in July and a 26 chance in September fed expectations have rapidly shifted to the hawkish direction the FED is not convinced that the fight against inflation is over Bad News Boys inflation unexpectedly jumped in Canada from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent in April it might not be such a smooth ride straight down to two percent after all question why Tesla did not move with the AI stocks today because I'm mad money last night Jimmy creamer it is time for the lightning round he said Tesla is a buy take a look at the weekly chart of none other than Tesla at Tuesday's annual meeting Elon Musk warn that the next 12 months would be challenging for Tesla thanks to worldwide economic weakness Williams doesn't dispute that the next year might be difficult for the company but it feels a lot more constructive about Tesla stock remember they are two different things at times because right now the long-term cycles look in pretty darn good it bottomed to the end of last year which is when the stock stopped going Laura right and history said he died this pattern says Tesla can keep rallying through the second quarter of next year rather than worrying about the next 12 months Williams recommends buying the dips although you might want to lighten up on your position into any of the big rallies but look at this you see where this is headed these money managers have an excellent track record of buying the stock right before rallies in other words they're not contrary they're actually correct over the last four weeks they have been buying Tesla stock aggressively that suggests the Stock's getting ready for a big move higher because on May 9th Cramer said why betting on Home Depot could be a win right now on May 16th Home Depot posted worse Revenue Miss in 20 years he is a legend on Thursday after he tweeted let's go let's go S P 500 future turns negative five minutes later very timely calls he recently said an economic wave is about to hit that will be fantastic for investors he also said he's extremely confident that the U.S is not going to default now I want you all to pay attention to the bond market look at TLT does that look confident and fantastic for investors hell no treasuries are falling and nobody seems to care the comparison to the Titanic is very valid that scene when the ship has already hit the iceberg the engines brought to a halt but the rich kids keep playing with chunks of ice up on the upper deck close up on a bar table and the whiskey glass falls off yes the bond market doesn't buy it TLT just broke the trend line heading down probably worries of the depth defaulting the s p tech ratio now exceeds the 2020 lockdown and Y2K this week Home Depot reported the worst quarterly Revenue Miss since the Y2K recession and the biggest drop in quarterly Revenue since the 2009 recession confirming that the consumer is weakening the Home Improvement retailer lowered its forecast for this year as consumers delay large projects and buy fewer Big Ticket items like patio sets and grills HD said cold weather and falling lumber prices also hurt first quarter sales it's last quarterly Miss of this magnitude was in 2002.
Home Depot said it now expects sales and comparable sales to decline between two percent and five percent for the year it had previously predicted flat sales Home Depot and its peer now face a more unpredictable Outlook Rising interest rates threatened to dampen the appetite of prospective home buyers and cool home values groceries and Essentials now take a bigger bite out of households budgets with 2020 largely in the rear view mirror Americans now weigh spending on travel dining out and other experiences when they debate a kitchen renovation or a new refrigerator Alibaba is the stock Charlie Munger made a huge mistake on he started buying Baba since 2021 with the average Buy price of a hundred and eighty dollars valued at 27 million dollars but in 2022 he sold half of his position due to U.S China tensions lost a lot of Millions the same reason why Warren Buffett sold Taiwan semiconductor stock Baba stock actually went down five percent as the S P 500 made a new high for the year it went up as high as 4202 amazing the algorithm is bidding the stocks higher as it attracts retail money back into the market before it crashed it all right in front of their faces for over 15 years of trading never have I seen a bull market start with an inverted yield curve in an interest rate Rising environment with inflation still around five percent Thursday feels like a top not a Breakout the method for calculating the CPI was designed to produce a lower number you basically have to double the official numbers to get a better idea of what's actually happening with prices so if the government says they're up 4.9 percent they're probably up closer to 9.8 percent that is a better read-on what Americans are struggling with the government doesn't have to lie the CPI does it for them the FED is facing a devil's bargain it has to choose between High interest rates and high inflation there's a good chance we're going to get both because interest rates are prices it's the price you pay when you borrow money the price is going up just like the price of everything else in fact interest expense is a major part of every business as interest rate goes up well that's just another cost that you need to pass on to your customers through higher prices so it's a self-perpetuating spiral what we really need to tackle inflation is lower government spending government needs to cut spending but that's not happening in fact they're doing the complete opposite the government is increasing spending so they are throwing gasoline on an inflation fire there is no way out because as long as there is no disaster they'll keep kicking the can down the road the crisis is going to come in the form of a sovereign debt and currency crisis it's going to be U.S treasury bond that's the problem nobody is going to want to own our Sovereign Bond because of how high inflation is and that's also going to create a dollar crisis that is where we're heading and it's a big disaster why couldn't the feds see 2008 coming that was obvious why couldn't they see this inflation problem I mean they were claiming it was transitory when it was obvious that it wasn't it's all about to spin when it comes to the government they're never going to be honest they're either going to lie about what's going to happen or maybe they're just so ignorant that they really can't see what is clearly apparent to anybody who's objectively looks at the facts so you've got to think for yourself and recognize that the government is never going to tell you about a crisis you just need to prepare it for yourself and here is my client's collaboration book adversity equals success it's already yours such an amazing book with such incredible authors order your copy toda
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