저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 스퀘어(블록, SQ) 지분을 매수했다는 13F 공시를 계기로, 블록의 저평가(EV/FCF 낮음, 대규모 잉여현금흐름 4.53억달러)와 Cash App·셀러 솔루션 성장을 짚는다. 반면 후불결제(BNPL) 부실 위험과 잭 도시의 복귀 효과를 두고 낙관과 경계가 함께 제시되며, 주가는 BNPL 연체가 터지면 높게 유지되기 어렵다는 취지로 마무리된다.
다듬은 글
welcome back everyone to the audacious money witch Channel where we talk about investing and trading and a lot of fun things Michael bur just bought my Square block stock what you must know before Square earnings Michael bur just bought my Square block stock in the last quarter of 2023 according to the latest 13 F filing although he buys and sells stocks like a Trader his strategy isn't very complex he tries to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like roadkill and sells them when they have been polished up a bit this really sounds like a used car dealer all jokes aside his weapon of choice is research if he didn't do his research in 20 2005 he wouldn't be shorting the US housing market for a billion doll gain in the end in this video I can't show you Dr bur's research but I can show you mine and Square's macro research in this business cycle it's critical for Dr burri to understand a company's value before spending a penny he likes to follow Benjamin Ram picking up deep value stocks so michaelb finds out of favor Industries a particularly fertile ground for best of breed chairs at steep discounts like Finch in recent years Square block stock and PayPal stock were the delighted outcome of the market throwing babies out with the bath water even though Wall Street hates fintech stocks calling them no mo with too much competition but michaelb clearly disagrees so how does Dr bur determine the discount he usually focuses on free cash flow and Enterprise Value which is market cap less Cash Plus debt last quarter block Incorporated put out massive 453 $ million in free cash flow a huge pile of cash flowing in compared to their other quarters he likes to Screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the Enterprise Value to iida ratio through that ratio he is willing to look harder to determine a more specific price and value for a company block Enterprise PR value to iida ratio of 120 and EV to free cash flow ratio of 46 block owns the cash app the number one finance app in the US and square Powers all the way we do business today's businesses are navigating transformative Innovation and unpresented change they're facing High competition Staffing and operational challenges and the rapid advancement of Cutting Edge Technology Square partnered with Wakefield research to survey consumers restaurant owners and Retail owners in the United States Canada the United Kingdom and Australia to uncover insights about the 2024 Commerce landscape C customers are seeking out new experiences and Technology at local businesses facing inflation and higher costs 43% of customers feel less optimistic about their financial situations than 12 months prior in the face of financial uncertainty customers are mindful of where they spend their money seeking out businesses that offer value and efficiency in 2024 customers not only expect businesses to incorporate technology but may even prioritize spending at businesses using AI or automation that makes their experiences more seamless 45% of retailers have seen greater employee retention and increased profits as a result of their automation Investments well 60 7% of restaurant owners say that automation tools have directly benefited customers either through customer experience or communication restaurant operators face High startup costs lingering inflation wavering employment levels and increased competition when met with a challenge however restaurant owners are quick to adapt looking ahead Innovation and expansion are key many restaurant owners are experimenting with new goods and services such as subscriptions merchandise and classes and are using new technology and tools to get there to help fuel that growth and stay competitive in a dynamic industry restauranter are leaning into what their consumers want Square for retail provides alerts when stock gets low provides automated inventory sell through reports and sends automatic purchase orders to vendors retailers can also use Square payroll for full service payroll automated tax filings and employee benefits all in one place we used to handw write every order in our account book so there we con errors and inventory issues before we switch to square now that we have a team and a reliable POS system automation might seem impersonal on the surface but in reality it helps free up employees time to focus on the tasks that matter most to the customers as a result automation Solutions have had a big impact on retailers bottom line retail ERS earning $500,000 or more a year believe in AI tools for product recommendations by integrating generative AI into its powerful business software Square gives retailers a seamless way to automate operations speed up workflows and regain time did you know retailers who report accepting a buy now pay l payment option have increased 10% since 2022 with an average of 43% of retailers now accepting these payments retailers can increase conversion rates by providing an easy way for customers to pay in installments with afterpay acceptance of by now pay later options is growing in popularity particularly in the United Kingdom 48% and Australia 47% compared to a slightly lower 39% of retailers accepting them in the United States and Canada to keep up with evolving customer preferences retailers plan to focus on adopting faster and easier communication channels offering more inore events and shopping experiences doubling down on loyalty programs and accepting emerging payment methods when it comes to emerging payments buy now pay later payment options like afterpay and QR code payments are at the top of that list it's essential for retailers to offer more choice at the check out especially as they look to capture NextGen consumer s who are increasingly turning to bnpl solutions to enable them to budget and spread the cost of their purchases since adding afterpay to the square ecosystem of Commerce tools sellers can easily turn on bnpl capabilities to attract younger Shoppers and drive incremental Revenue to their businesses all while managing these Omni Channel orders on one platform consumers are feeling less financially optimistic the majority of consumers are feeling less optimistic about their financial situation compared to 12 months ago just 28% of total consumers reported feeling more optimistic while 43% reported feeling less optimistic sentiment about finances also differs across countries Australian consumers feel less optimistic about their financial situations compared to other countries 50% of Australian consumers feel less optimistic while just 40% of Canadian consumers 44 of UK consumers and 37% of us consumers feel less optimistic one thing that keeps the rates up and the economy going at this point in my opinion it's been Severance uh you take that severance package and you leave Julie immediately I didn't really do anything at hulie so good you're getting a hang of it already this settlement offer is quite generous I I no I know I mean $2 million is a lot of money two no it's um it's a 20 million I mean talking to people in Silicon Valley 6 months 9 months 12 months of severance pay and people are asking why are initial jobless claims so low because they're getting like 60% of $300,000 whatever their salary used to be they're getting like 60% of that for 9 months and you really think that they are going to go out and get it's like $13,500 a year for California jobless benefits it's a rounding air compared to what they're getting but at some point that's going to run out Google took a $2.1 billion charge in calendar year of 2023 that's a lot of severance and time for the economy to keep going companies are still paying people so technically there's still an employee on the labor report number it's incredible what you can use buy now pay later for things that just vanish Into Thin Air like a haircut how is the lender going to get their money back Wells Fargo ran an analysis that shows that buy now pay later has growing at a third of the pace of credit card borrowing so that's about $18 billion more in buy now pay later and everybody's like I wonder why retail sales were so strong in December I'm like well because that's the exact month that Walmart ruled out byy now pay later there's so many problems with buy now pay later and that de not reporting on someone 's credit report you have to know how much they're paying and then the fact that they're getting this out of register is not even a collateralized app I heard from a gen Z that they were able to get a drink in a bar with buy now pay later I mean how are the afterpay going to get their money back if people with bad credit do this over and over again I think this is the biggest risk with my Square block stock one thing that keeps me holding the stock is blocks balance sheet they do have a lot of cash Bush upgrading block which is the old Square upgrading to Alper form a $90 price Target and then here is bti uh issuing a buy and then taking this upgrade buy I'm sorry $85 price now buried in the bti is this Jack back at the Helm of the square ecosystem nearly 14 years after Jack he founded SQ focused on enabling Merchants with the ability to accept card he is back at the helm leading the segment now this is very significant because a lot of people felt that he was just an absent CEO if Jack is back I'm with it is is his relative absence or the reason why you think it has not been able to respond multiple firms have tried to Bull it and it hasn't moved now the only time I've met Jack was when he explained to me the ecosystem and he was very kind about it I was that was delightful uh and it was really gam set match I thought it was going to be The Young Person's cash app the way everyone was using it I I do not want to go against Jack dorsy if it's a jack dorsy of that era because wow he can be great if in fact he's giving it his full attention we got to get him on the show you I know you have a good relationship maybe you try to get him on the show because this mindmental he's been a little absent from television as well little absent but you know what it's never too late and and I think that this is just a great sign even though I love their CFO she does a terrific job Jack being back tells me that this thing's going to get exciting again and that's terrific but once those buy now pay later debt beats default the stock price is not going to stay high and it's not high right now anyway
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