저자: NewMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 핵심 메시지는 개별 종목 투자보다 인덱스 펀드 적립식 투자가 대부분 투자자에게 적합하다는 것이다. 개인 투자자가 손실을 보는 주된 이유는 좋은 기업을 못 골라서가 아니라 감정에 휘둘려 잘못된 시점에 사고파는 데 있다고 설명한다. 인덱스 펀드는 시장 전체에 분산 투자해 종목 선택과 매매 타이밍의 부담을 줄여 감정 문제를 완화한다. 1942년 이후 미국 시장에 1만 달러를 인덱스에 재투자했다면 약 5,100만 달러가 되었을 것이라는 사례를 든다. 1966~1978년처럼 10년 이상 횡보한 시기도 있었으나 이후 장기 보유 시 누적 수익이 회복됐다고 한다. 적립식(달러 코스트 애버리징)으로 장기간 꾸준히 매수하는 전략을 강조한다. 버핏은 1996년 주주서한에서 대부분 투자자에게 저비용 인덱스 펀드가 최선이라고 밝혔다고 인용한다. 미국 액티브 펀드의 다수(약 78%)가 최근 5년간 S&P500을 underperform했다는 데이터를 제시한다. 버핏은 2008년 프로테제 파트너스와 10년간 헤지펀드 대 S&P500 내기에서 승리했다고 언급한다. 영상 말미에 강의 홍보와 구독 요청이 이어진다. 개별 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
so warren buffett we know he is the world's best investor and he has built his fortune by analyzing individual businesses and buying them at discounted prices his strategy can essentially be summarized by just waiting and waiting and waiting until you get that perfect opportunity and then when you've got that opportunity to buy a great company at a discounted price he buys heavily and then he aims to hold that stock for decades and decades and decades and this strategy has led him to buy into businesses such as coca-cola and apple and bank of america and american express and all these positions have done remarkably well for buffett over the years however the real secret to buffett's success is not necessarily in his strategy it's his temperament some people should not own socks at all because they just get too upset with price fluctuations if you're going to do dumb things because your stock a stock goes down you shouldn't own a stock at all what are done things selling a stock yeah it's telling the stock because it goes down i mean if you know if if you buy your house at twenty thousand dollars and somebody comes along next thing says i'll pay you 15.
you don't sell it because the quote's 15. you look at the house or whatever it may be it but some people are not actually emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks but i think they're more of them would be if you get educated on what you're really buying which is part of a business isn't that interesting that literally the world's best stock picker says if you don't have the right temperament don't even try to do what he does and i know this talk of having the right temperament how it's so important sounds a little bit wishy-washy but it's actually true believe me okay because a lot of like the main reason investors that pick individual stocks lose money is not because they don't find great businesses most people out there find great businesses to buy the problem the reason they lose money is that they get influenced by their emotions they end up buying and selling those great businesses at completely the wrong times so what do you do if you want to be an investor but you quite simply can't keep your emotions in check and by the way it's totally okay if you recognize that you are one of those people that you're not going to be able to keep your emotions out of your investing well luckily for you over the past few decades there has been a stock mark there's been an investing approach that has gained tremendous popularity that is of course passive investing through etfs through index funds it's essentially where you buy one stock and that one stock actually represents wide diversification in a lot of instances it represents diversification across the whole market so the idea here is that you just show up each and every year and you continue to buy into the market rain hail or shine and you show up every single year and you do that year after year for decades and decades and decades on end and what that does is it takes the emotion out of investing you're not trying to pick the right times to buy in and out you're not trying to pick the right companies to buy in and out of instead you're just backing the market in general showing up each and every year and over a long period of time that means you will average out to the average market return and here's the thing i find crazy that this stock market approach is the stock market approach that warren buffett the world's best active investor recommends for most investors so this time i went back actually to 1942 when i bought my first stock as an illustration of all the things that have happened since 1942 we've had we've had uh 14 presidents seven republicans seven democrats we've had we've had world wars we had 911 we had the cuban missile crisis we have all kinds of things the best single thing you could have done on march 11 1942 when i bought my first stock was just buy an index fund and and and never look at a headline never think about stocks anymore just like you would do if you bought a farm you just buy the farm or let the let the tenant farmer run it for you and i pointed out that if you put ten thousand dollars in an index fund that reinvested dividends and i paused for a moment to let the audience try and guess how much it amount to and it would come to 51 million dollars now and the only thing you had to really believe in then is that america would win the war and that america would progress as it has ever since 1776 and that american business if america moved forward american business would move forward you didn't have to worry about what stock to buy you didn't have to worry one day to get in and out you didn't you didn't know the federal reserve would exist whatever it might be and uh america works and this is why warren buffett likes to recommend this strategy it takes the psychological aspect out of your investing it takes away the need to have that right temperament right you don't need to know what stocks to buy you don't have to worry about what day to get in and what day to get out and it still produces a great result if you give it time and that's really the second big thing to successful investing is firstly you need the right temperament but secondly you need to allow enough time for the magic to happen because don't get me wrong like there are some periods of time where the market goes nowhere for like 10 years for example from 1966 to 1978 the market did nothing zero you got a zero return but if you just held on for another 10 years all of a sudden you've got a total return of 187 percent and a compound annual growth rate of five percent so what's that 12 years for zero or 22 years for 187 total so it's a strategy that works consistently if you go the journey with your dollar cost averaging and here's warren buffett talking specifically to that point so i would pick a broad index but i wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time i would do it over a period of time because the very nature of index funds is that you are saying i think america's business is going to do well over reasonably well over a long period of time but i don't know enough to pick the winners and i don't know enough to pick the winning times there's nothing wrong with that i don't know enough to pick the winning times occasionally i think i know enough to pick a winner but not very often and i certainly can't pick winners by going down through the whole list and saying this is a winner and this isn't and so on so the important thing to do if you have an overall feeling that businesses reasonable place to have your money over a long period of time is to invest over a long period of time and not make any bet implicitly by putting a big chunk in at a given time so yesterday the course and remember dollar cost averaging is the way to go because it protects you from two different things it protects you firstly from your own emotions and then secondly it protects you from what can be market wide swings quite drastic market wide swings because if you hang in there for the long period of time you continue to show up each and every year slowly but surely you average out to that average market return so work out your plan keep showing up year after year decade after decade and overall that is why warren buffett likes this strategy so much and is so quick to recommend it even before he recommends his own investing strategy and he's held this opinion for a long time too this is an excerpt from his 1996 annual letter to shareholders where he said most investors both institutional and individual will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees those following this path are sure to beat the net results after fees and expenses delivered by the great majority of investment professionals and it's true if you follow this approach the evidence shows that you are likely going to beat 70 to 80 percent of actively managed funds that are run by the professionals if we have a look here in the u.s 78 of active funds haven't beaten the s p 500 over the past five years here in australia 80 percent of active funds haven't beat the s p asx 200 over the past five years in fact warren buffett was so sure that active funds would underperform index funds that he made a one million dollar bet with protege partners llc that over a 10-year period a hand-picked selection of hedge funds would underperform the s p 500 and sure enough warren buffett won easily heck warren buffett has even uh recommended buying index funds to lebron my first question would be um yeah what should i invest in next can i have some tips i i think somebody like lebron and we've talked about it but i i think you and lebron have talked about it uh occasionally uh i think i actually if through the rest of his career and and beyond in terms of earning power then uh just making monthly investments in them in the low-cost index fund makes a lot of sense i think that somebody's position ought to have a significant cash reserve and whatever makes them comfortable and then beyond that owning a piece of america a diversified piece bought over time held for 30 or 40 years it's bound to do well and the income will go up over the years and and there's really nothing to worry about so there you go warren buffett the world's best stock picker recommends passive investing for most people no he doesn't believe it is the best strategy to make money because otherwise he would follow it but he does think it is the best strategy to make money for most people and quite simply the reason for that is it takes away the number one thing that kills active investors time and time again that is their temperament when you're a passive investor you don't need the right temperament you just need to commit to a dollar cost averaging strategy and then you just need to keep showing up anyway guys that is it for this video if you would like a full run through of the passive investing strategy and how to get started with it then check out the links down in the description head over to profitful it's a four hour course called stock market investing for beginners definitely check that out because it's usually at this point a lot of people that are new to the markets they recognize oh okay dollar cost averaging passive investing this is what i've got to do but then they never start so in that course there's lots of practical steps to actually make sure you follow through and start your investing journey so if you're interested check that out leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it or if you found it useful of course it helps out the channel a lot it helps out the video a lot and i really appreciate it so thank you very much and subscribe if you haven't done so already there's like a ridiculously low percentage of viewers on my channel that are actually subscribed so if you like the content if you've seen a few of my videos please help out the channel join the crew and subscribe but that'll do me for today guys thank you very much for watching and i'll see you guys in the next video [
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