PREDICTING THE STOCK MARKET IN 2021 WITH BILL ACKMAN!!!

요약 보기

2020년 팬데믹 폭락은 과도한 밸류에이션을 정상화한 '꼭 필요한 조정'이었고, 개인 투자자에게는 저평가 자산을 살 기회였다. David Robinson(RTS Private Wealth Management)의 말을 인용해 이를 '역대 최대의 부의 이전'으로 해석했다. 2021년 전망: Ackman은 백신 보급으로 공포가 60~120일 내 가라앉을 것으로 봤으며, 진행자는 방향에는 동의하지만 그 기간은 낙관적이라고 평가했다. 공포가 줄면 저축이 쌓인 소비자들이 여행·외식·영화 등에 지출을 늘릴 것이고, 이에 따라 항공(AAL, UAL, AC.TO)·호텔·외식·극장 등 서비스주가 상승할 것으로 전망했다. 비용 구조 측면: 위기 중 힐튼 등 기업들이 간접비를 25~30% 줄였고, 이는 '살을 뺀' 기업이 회복기에 이익률을 높일 것이라는 논리다. 사무실 축소·재택근무 전환이 예시로 제시됐다. 결론적으로 진행자는 공포 해소 후 소비 급증과 린(lean)해진 기업 실적이 결합되어 2021년 주식시장이 역대 수준으로 오를 가능성이 높다고 전망했다. 다만 이는 영상 시점(2021년 1월)의 과거 발언으로, 대상 자산 중 직접 가격 방향을 특정한 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. 2020 is finally over and i'm [ __ ] stoked explain to you how much 2020 sucked let me give you a an image of how much 2020 sucked um it's like getting kicked in the balls um not once but multiple times by a [ __ ] horse sucked not being able to go watch a movie i know it sucked it sucked not being able to go on vacation i know it sucked it sucked not being able to go to a restaurant with your friend and experience the food in the freaking restaurant it sucked i know it did you know what suck more me going to costco multiple times to try and find some [ __ ] toilet paper yes it sucked balls on the personal side i know but on the economic side it sucked balls also but not as much and i'll explain to you why before the pandemic a lot of companies valuations were at all time highs and it was just not there was no point in investing anymore if you think about it the pandemic was kind of a gift to the regular investor like me and you because when the pandemic hit when the pandemic actually hit what happened is all these evaluations had dropped and everything was affordable actually more than affordable actually i'm sorry it was on sale everything was on sale everything was discounted it was easy um to make money i know there was more fear but you know that apple is never going to go out of business you you know this but apple dropped like crazy and there was so much potential to make money so yes it sucked balls on the economic side however for a regular investor like me you um and anybody else who doesn't have a billion dollars in stocks kind of was cool not discrediting the negative impacts of this pandemic on the world i know a lot of people lost their jobs i know a lot of people passed away i know a lot of people suffered from this pandemic however if you're looking at this from the investing perspective okay you can see that it was kind of a well needed uh retraction we were at a point before the pandemic where stocks were so highly valued some companies were so highly valued it just didn't make sense anymore to actually invest to invest you need to think that the companies are undervalued but if companies are not undervalued and they're extremely expensive it's hard to actually make money the average investor like you like me and whoever else you're thinking about this correction was a very much needed correction very much needed very much is that a word i'm gonna go with it very much needed way to truly explain this is with this one quote that i've seen i don't know who said it i'm gonna look it up but just give me a second i'll be right back somebody called david robinson uh founder of and ceo of rts private wealth management i'm truly i don't know who the [ __ ] that is i'm sorry um but he said this is the greatest transfer of wealth in history and i truly believe what he's saying people who own stocks at those high valuations were the wealthy ones and with the stocks dropping in valuation average joes like me and you can get in on the action that's what he means by the transfer of wealth we're done with 2020 and 2021 is finally here baby man 2021 is here another opportunity for a year to really suck or not really suck anyways i don't know if you noticed from the title of this video this is going to be my commentary on bill ackman's thoughts on what 2021 is gonna bring in reference to the stock market now you're gonna ask me who the [ __ ] is bill ackman i got you i'm really gonna go into a biography of bill ackman because i'm really not down i really want to get into the actual meet and greet of this video but uh bill ackman is one of if seen as one of the best investors in america bill ackman is famous for his 2012 short on herbalife that lost him a billion dollars a billion dollars now you're probably thinking why the [ __ ] are we listening to this guy if he lost a billion dollars on a short why well um he had one of the best trades ever um he had actually poured 60 million dollars into a company and turned it around from bankruptcy to i believe 1.6 billion dollars one more time 60 million dollars was invested he made 1.6 billion dollars off that one investment but that thinking just let that sink in all right we can listen to him i think he knows a few things so my camera died and now my room is darker because the sun's going down so i'm sorry i'll be honest with you this video was gonna be primarily about my own opinions and thoughts of what's gonna happen in 2021 in reference to the stock market however because i do a lot of research for all of my videos i do so much research i found a really interesting video of bill ackman actually answering the question we have on hand while watching this video i was actually surprised on the points he actually brought up uh because a lot of those points kind of fall in line with what i was going to say in this video um so i turned it from more of my thoughts and opinions to a commentary of what he thinks is gonna happen in the stock market in 2021 so let's get into it but before we do that please remember that if you enjoy this content if you think i did a good job if you actually appreciate the amount of work i put into these videos i would really really really appreciate a subscription [ __ ] you know what the deal is you know what to do please do it thank you so much it takes a lot of time for me to do this stuff i appreciate it on to the video and so i do think you know we are set up for a very strong recovery in 2021 i think the virus is going to be frightening and a disaster for the next call it 90 120 days so that's the big negative news in the short term but we have you know multiple successful vaccines and probably more coming we're going to have fairly wide distribution of those vaccines beginning you know as early as 30 days from now um and i think by the second half of next year will be you know probably out of the pandemic for the most part uh in the first you know kind of what you might call first world i don't know that fear is actually a huge player when it comes to the stock market we know it's a fact that if people are too scared to invest their money into the stock market companies are not going to go to their valuations that they were at before the pandemic it's just not going to happen that fear has to subside and people have to start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and so what that's what bill ackman is trying to say he does believe that the beginning of the year there will be a lot of fear and people just don't know what's going to happen which is the truth but he says that in 60 to 120 days which is his estimate which i really think is actually kind of a stretch i mean this is something i don't agree with him because we really can't know when things gonna get better he thinks that the actual vaccines are gonna be very efficient to the point where things gonna get better in 120 days don't typically agree with his numbers but i do believe that soon we're gonna have to see the light at the end of the tunnel and with fear going down people are gonna put money into the market and valuations of companies are gonna go back up i know karen i know i know that fear is not the only factor when you're trying to determine the valuation of a company or just a stock market on where it's actually heading i know fear is not the only factor i know you gotta look at the balance sheet i know you gotta look at cash flow i know all this stuff i know you gotta look at the p e ratio however fear is a huge part of company valuations and the actual trajectory of the stock market it's a fact so shut the [ __ ] up karen please okay and then you have a large buildup of savings on the part of uh you know americans and really globally as people haven't spent haven't gone out to eat they haven't gone out to theater they haven't gone to a movie they haven't gotten on a plane uh and and i would say animal spirits are building up i don't know about you but i am the moment i can't first can actually travel and go places so i think you're going to see a huge recovery um even in business you know if you're any kind of business you haven't been to see your clients or customers one of the first things you should be doing is getting on a plane and going to see all your you know your relationships because if you know your competitor is going to be doing i don't know about you guys but i know that once the vaccine is 85 to 95 deficient i'm audi i'm i'm i'm gone i'm leaving i need to travel somewhere i don't care if it's freaking north korea to go meet kim jong-un i am freaking doing it i am leaving my little ass apartment to go and live a bit to to experience things like he said animal behaviors we are social animals we need to go experience new things and i truly believe just like bill ackman believes that once we do see the light at the end of the tunnel once fear is subsided we are going to see consumer spending skyrocket in the economy that's a fact with that being said stocks like ac dot to air canada stocks like al stocks like ual stocks hotel stocks these stocks are gonna go ahead and skyrocket because people are going to want to go and use these services people are going to want to fly everywhere it's it's a given we all know this also important to highlight that not only these huge corporations are going to benefit from this from the pandemic being over but also these small market companies like restaurants like movie theaters are going to benefit immensely from a higher revenue from what they're doing right now because obviously when fear goes away people are gonna be more inclined to go to a restaurant with their friends to go watch a movie with their girlfriend it's just gonna happen and once that happens i truly believe that we will be on track to a prosperous economy and a prosperous stock market however i don't think that demand is the only factor to look at when determining the trajectory of the stock market in 2021 bill ackman is going to say something super powerful here and guys please listen because this is huge and then you have a lot of companies that use the crisis to kind of tighten up their cost structure you know hilton cut i think something like 25 to 30 percent of their corporate overhead costs and i and you know success does breed a certain looseness with expenses and a crisis does the opposite you can have some lean leaned up companies coming out into a very strong environment so i think there's a a pretty good chance for a very strong stock market next year success leads to looseness in expenses bill ackman hit it right on the head when he said this imagine you were overweight imagine you kept eating and eating and eating and eating and then you went to the hospital and the doctor told you you're obese i'm pretty sure you're gonna try to cut the fat this is exactly what's happening right now companies like i mentioned hilton air canada aal american airlines are cutting the fat they are cutting expenses to increase their profit margins now i'll just give you an example why are they paying for office buildings for customer service centers when they can just have everybody work at home now a lot of companies are realizing this now and realizing that these expenses are just unnecessary and what's gonna happen now is like he said a lot of companies are gonna go into the new year very leaned up what that means is they're gonna be very on top of their balance sheet and realize what is important to put on their balance sheet and what is not do i really need to pay for a whole office for customer service agents when i can just have them work at home and i don't have to pay hundreds of thousands millions of dollars in expenses and i'll have to put it on a balance sheet and that actually increases my profit margin and makes me more valuable that is what's gonna happen and that is what is actually happening right now and bill ackman actually killed it when he said that who didn't give you guys my personal opinion on what bill ackman said in this video and my personal opinion on what's gonna happen in 2021 i truly believe the most important thing that bill ackman said in this video is in regards to fear i think when fear subsides and is not evident anymore i think people are going to want to spend like crazy because they've been saving up for so long and they want to be social animals so consumer spending is going to skyrocket and i do believe that companies are going to come back leaned up companies are going to come back and be ready for consumers to come back into their hotels and their restaurants in their planes they're gonna be ready um and so that is gonna propel the stock market to levels that we have never seen before i hundred percent agree with that i kind of agree i don't agree with the numbers that he put on like 120 days because we just don't know but i kind of agree that we're very close to the light at the end of the tunnel we're close to seeing that light at the end of the tunnel and it's beautiful and it's actually very very like a like a weight off my shoulder because you know a lot of people have been affected by this pandemic i have been affected by this pandemic who hasn't right and we would all love to just live life how we used to live before i mean i don't even remember how i used to live life before but i would love to and i'm happy that just things are getting better thank you for watching this video guys i really appreciate it if you guys like this video please comment like subscribe it really helps me out it helps me out make a lot more videos i want to make more videos for you guys if you guys have any topics that you guys want to hear about you guys can drop them down in the comments below i've got you i got you anyways thank you for listening to this video i appreciate it i appreciate your time and i'll see you in the next one boom