저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 미국 증시가 초대형 버블 말기에 있으며 S&P500이 약 2500 수준(고점 대비 약 50% 하락)까지 내려갈 수 있다고 본다. 과거 예측과 현재 판단: 1년 전 1929·2000년급 붕괴를 예고했고, 당시엔 '몇 달 내 붕괴'로 말했으나 실제로는 약 10개월 후 약세 전환. 당시보다 확신이 높아졌다고 밝힘. 버블 근거: 블루칩(S&P500)은 버틴 반면 러셀2000 등 소형·성장주는 1년간 수익 없이 하락해 1929·2000년과 같은 극심한 괴리가 나타났다고 지적. 나스닥도 블루칩 대비 약세 전환. 버블 단계: 광기의 정점은 지났고 현재는 '저점 매수(buy the dip)' 단계. 증권사들은 항상 강세를 유지하는 경향이 있다고 비판. 하락 목표: S&P500 고점 약 4800pt 대비 추세선 약 2500pt 부근까지 하락 가능. 연준이 개입해도 막기 어렵다고 봄. 투자 전략: 미국 주식 비중을 줄이고 가치주 중심으로 해외(특히 신흥국, 일본, 영국) 분산 권고. 미국은 '충격적으로 고평가'. 헤지: 그랜섬 운용사는 러셀2000 약 상당량 숏 포지션, 나스닥 숏도 보유(나스닥 숏은 손실). 개별 종목 숏은 하지 않고 지수 숏만 한다고 설명. 출연자 전망: 주식 전체 매도는 어렵다고 인정하나, 미국 비중 축소와 가치주 분산을 권함.
다듬은 글
this is a huge divergence of a kind that has never happened other than the super bubbles of 1929 and 2000. jeremy grantham started one of the very first index funds in the world back in the 1970s since then he has gained prominence within the financial community for his ability to read and predict the market with surprising accuracy his firm grantham mayo and von alterloo oversees more than 65 billion dollars of investments for its clients roughly a year ago jeremy was on bloomberg being interviewed about the state of the financial market he confidently predicted that a super bubble was on the verge of popping with serious consequences headed our way have you been cautiously eyeing the major stock indexes for the past year or two you aren't alone the volatility and the unpredictableness of the market are at an all-time high growth stocks act like value stocks and vice versa inflation looks like a runaway train and the federal reserve is taking drastic measures to control it jeremy grantham is going to explain these patterns and signs in the following clip he returned to bloomberg recently to revisit his claim of a super bubble and the impending crash with the market beginning to show the telltale signs he backed his previous prediction with more fervor than ever the united states and other countries have experienced major bubbles in the past some that may come to mind are the dot-com crash of 2000 with a major mortgage financial crisis of 2008 even as far back as 1637 during the famed tulip mania financial bubbles have been building popping and plunging entire nations into the deep end during times like these it's important to take note from the most knowledgeable investors and analysts in this clip jeremy discusses the warning signals he sees the s p low that we should expect the speed at which this public could pop and much more should you sell should you buy the dip should you short particular stocks he covers it all in this latest interview jeremy a year ago you predicted an epic collapse in stock prices and you told me it would rival the 1929 crash and the dot-com bust of 2000 2001.
were you wrong no i don't think so i noticed reviewing it last night that there was one little element of contradiction at one stage i said you can't call these events to within a few months and at another point i said history says that when you reach this level of craziness the market tends to break within a few months rather than a few years and i think with hindsight the market started to get distinctly weaker about 10 months after we talked so that's a few months plus a little bit all the same 2021 was a great year for stocks if i'm not mistaken the seventh best in a half century and and this has been exactly how the great bubbles have broken the the blue chips the s p 500 have kept strong right up to the last second and wave after wave of the stocks that had made the real running uh peel off and drop in 1929 the the flakes were down for the year before the market broke they were down 30 the year before they'd been up 85 they had crushed the market the really classic example of this is the russell 2000 which is stock number 1001 to 3 000 they're multi-billion dollar companies they're a serious enterprise in the last year they are down they have not made any money at all the s ps made 23 percent the russell 2000 is meant to go up about 1.2 times the market in a bull market like you're saying there was it should have been up about 30 percent it it wasn't even up recently this is a huge divergence of a kind that has never happened other than the super bubbles of 1929 and 2000.
2000 you may remember that growth stocks peeled off and were down 50 percent the s p was flat which meant the remaining 70 percent had risen 20 percent this is an enormous divergence and it happens on the upside for the blue chips so this is absolutely it's almost eerily classic it's a pattern it's a pattern it's a very rare pattern and we have been checking off this list all year when i sat down a year ago we had seen the accelerating phase that you need in a bubble that had taken place last year with the nasdaq up over 100 from the low but also up 58 percent from december of 2019 so even granted that covet decline it was a hell of a year it was a year of acceleration and and the nasdaq has started to weaken relative to the blue chips the russell has started to weaken much much more so even than nasdaq at the risk of putting words in your mouth you are as certain as you were then if not more i would say clearly more i uh i did freely admit not in our conversation but elsewhere that i wasn't quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as i had been about the tech bubble of 2000 or as i had been in japan or as i had been in the housing bubble of 2007 i used to think then in terms of near certainties this time i felt highly likely but perhaps not nearly certain today i feel it it is just about nearly certain now the hallmark of a bubble is what you have termed crazy behavior what would you point to today right now as further evidence of crazy behavior i think the crazy behavior the peak of crazy behavior is behind us i really do i think um we're now in the by the dip mode which the super bubbles specialize in you don't have two years of buying frenzy dying overnight typically so even in 1929 you had some magnificent rallies and by the dip is the watchword of practically every brokerage house out there and it always is you never almost never have a major brokerage house say the game's over guys duck it doesn't happen the commercial imperative is it's overwhelming to stay bullish it's how you make money if you're right and stocks are in a multi-sigma deviation from the statistical trend tell me what happens the s p 500 peaked at almost 4 800 points where does it bottom the trend line being slightly generous is 2500 and most of the great bubbles the super bubbles go below trend and stay there for quite a while in the greenspan era that tendency stopped in 2000 yes the nasdaq came down 82 which was fairly brutal amazon came down 92 but the federal reserve raced to the rescue so loudly and strongly that they stopped the decline in the s p a trend line it only declined 50 percent 50 is a hell of a big decline but it was only enough to get it back then to trent this time trend is at most 2500 and i would expect even if the federal reserve tries to do the same it will be hard to prevent the market from declining to that level so we're talking about a decline of certainly from the peak of almost 50 percent and of course it declined very quickly 50 in 1929 it declined 50 in three years in 2000 and the housing market which was another great american super bubble went all the way back to trend in three years jeremy it's one thing to predict a collapse in stock prices it's another altogether to tell investors they should sell should they as i said a year ago i think i think they'll do pretty well by selling i'm sympathetic to how difficult it it is to get out entirely out of equities and i would point out as i did last year that there are less overpriced parts of the equity market around the world in fact everywhere is less overpriced than the us the u.s is the peak of this bubble as it was in 2000 and what it meant then is what it will mean today and that is the us will decline a whole lot more than the rest it's also true that the value end of the spectrum as opposed to the growth end is about as cheap as it gets so if you can combine those by buying value stocks outside the us i would say particularly emerging markets but there's quite a few countries japan the uk where the markets are if they're overpriced they're only moderately overpriced the u.s is not moderately overpriced it is shockingly overpriced you and i have talked about the perils of shorting single name stocks it's dangerous business but given where things are and your level of certainty would you short an index would you short text stocks would you short the s p 500 personally as opposed to gmo and the foundation we have for the protection of the environment we are indeed a short a decent amount of russell 2000s so we haven't been hurt in the last year which is amazing we're also sure to about half as much again as in the nasdaq which did hurt us but not sensationally and the point there is a lot of our money is in venture capital that's very growthy and we need some hedging and if we weren't exposed to a large amount of growth stocks i suspect we would skip the hedging we would skip going short in any case i would never short an individual name i would only short a broad index and the indices i would short if i was up for that would be the russell 2000 because they have a high density of flaky companies that aren't making any money and and and the nasdaq which also has a high high percentage of companies not making any earnings at all what makes the nasdaq more complicated is that it has these remarkable fang stocks in it and that that makes life complicated jeremy grantham is doing his duty by warning the world of an incoming crash made by our super bubble whether you believe him or not the market signs are worth paying attention to by staying in tune with the market you can make the correct moves and protect your wealth thanks for tuning back into profit protection if you enjoyed this video leave us a like and subscribe the channel so we can continue producing high quality content for you if you want to learn how to profit from an upcoming market crash check out our recent video on peter lynch's advice on doing just that see you next time
Comments 0