저자: RayDalio—인터뷰영상채널ProfitProtection · 외국인
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Ray Dalio는 현재 미국 경제가 스태그플레이션(경기침체와 고물가의 공존)에 빠져 있다고 진단하며, 정부의 대규모 재정지출과 연준의 유동성 공급이 과잉 통화 팽창을 낳았다고 설명한다. 코로나 이후 통화 팽창: 2020년 초부터 2021년 말까지 기존 미국 달러의 80% 이상이 새로 발행되었고, 이로 인해 달러 가치가 점진적으로 훼손되었다. 금리 인상의 딜레마: 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 금리를 충분히 올리면 시장과 경제에 과도한 부담이 되어, 물가와 성장 사이에서 더 어려운 트레이드오프에 직면한다. 시장에 반영되지 않은 긴축은 금리를 약 2% 수준까지 올릴 수 있으나, 실제 인플레이션은 5% 수준일 수 있어 공급·수요 불균형 문제가 지속된다. 개인 대응 방안: 자산이 인플레이션에 덜 취약한 저자본 필요 기업(예: 소프트웨어 기업)에 투자하고, 암호화폐 같은 디지털 자산을 고려하며, 저금리 예금에 장기간 자금을 묶어두지 말고 더 높은 금리 상품을 찾으라고 권고한다. 영상은 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시하며, 비트코인이 4개월 전 67,000달러를 찍었다가 43,000달러 이하로 떨어진 변동성을 언급한다. 직접적인 종목별 목표가·방향 예측은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
stagflation is an economic nightmare stagflation happens when the economy is experiencing both economic stagnation stalling or falling output and high inflation additionally a stroking economy will drive up unemployment russia's invasion of ukraine is imposing a severe stake inflationary shock raising prices as energy supplies threatens and squeezing households and corporate incomes as essential commodities become more expensive ray dalio recently was featured in politico's new 15 conversation ray dalio is the manager of the largest hedge fund in the world one of the most important subjects they covered was the problem of rising inflation ray dalio explained why he thinks we are stuck in a period of stagflation stick around until the end of this video because we are going to cover what our government officials might do to get inflation under control as well as what you can do personally to protect yourself during this extended period of monetary inflation welcome back to profit protection we're bringing you the biggest ideas from the thought leaders in crypto digital asset and financial markets your support helps us continue to bring you high quality content so please throw us a like and subscribe to the channel this political interview was great both ray dalio and former secretary of the treasury larry summers got plenty of time to explain their ideas rey in particular had a lot to say especially on the topic of inflation let's jump right into it with larry who started off the conversation so ray let's start on that question of inflation my sense is that we've had a set of developments that you've studied over a long time period but that we very dramatically about a year ago ramped up the level of fiscal spending ramped up the amount of liquidity that the fed was providing we did it at a time when because of covid there were limits on how much consumers could spend so they built up a big overhang and that the economy almost had to over overheat uh that to mix the metaphor the bathtub almost certainly had to overflow larry certainly summed up the situation during the cover 19 pandemic and the year that followed the government printed money to bail out companies and the american population while it's true that both businesses and consumers were in a tough financial spot the economic repercussions have been serious combined with supply chain issues and a looming idea of war the dollar simply hasn't recovered the government is now attempting to rein back this liquidity the value of the us currency has been squeezed out slowly as the amount of dollars in circulation continues to expand this is a phenomenon that isn't unheard of in societies throughout history the difference is that the process is usually slow from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 over 80 percent of all existing us dollars were printed it goes without saying that this might create a few kinks in the financial system so how did we get to this point in monetary inflation what does dalio think rey has been putting in extensive research on the topic of monetary systems and their influence on the performance of countries so i think it's a very very difficult probably as challenging a moment for monetary policy as we've had in decades what's your sense there's cyclical inflation there's monetary inflation and i think that people are not looking and the fed is not adequately looking at the fact that when there's a lot of debt and you create a lot of debt and money which of course is a great stimulant also one man's debts are another man's financial assets and so what we've seen is that as throughout history we can go back literally thousands of years um as the debts rise and there's somebody's financial assets they there's a balancing act that becomes increasingly difficult essentially ray dalio is describing the equilibrium or lack thereof that is inherently part of the monetary system the government printed money to support an economy that couldn't support itself the cyclical inflation that he talks about is a normal part of modern economies the rampant monetary inflation that we now see is problematic and so we're in a cycle where there was a lot of money and credit i mean it the the from a investor's point of view uh think about how bad that debt is i'm holding cash last year i lost seven percent to cash one would have lost seven percent of buying power and now if you have a five percent inflation and so on the things are changing and so because they're changing in that way inflation psychology is going to change rey does a great job of explaining this from a simplified perspective inflation is devaluing people's savings the government has gone into an even more serious debt despite selling bonds and promising a better economic situation down the line ramping up interest rates is a very direct way of bringing down inflation higher interest rates discourage riskier purchases these are often large purchases that require loans or other ways of borrowing money this is great at decreasing inflation but has the unfortunate side effects of discouraging consumer buying habits this weakens the economy ray goes on to say when you're stuck with two trade-offs too much inflation or you're stuck with too much economic weakness then you navigate through the middle and that means something like stagflation and so i think we're entering a period of stagflation and um and i think uh the political and the wealth gap issues and so on create a set of circumstances that it's not easy to get out of because uh everybody needs more money that's the word of the hour folks stagflation we are at an interesting point in the monetary system of our society there are issues that can't be solved without somebody taking a hit so the damage control can only go so far instead of the inflation getting better or worse we might have to deal with some sticky stagflation if stagflation is going to stick around what options do we have as a nation higher than expected inflation is a complex problem even the tools for fixing it like raising interest rates are indirect and difficult to depend on the fact of the matter is that people have built their personal and family lives upon this monetary system likewise organizations states and nations have done the same we can't switch up the system with drastic measures the alternative which is fixing the system from inside out will be a painful process for everyone involved that includes you and us the fed has to implement unfavorable policies like interest rate hikes to get things back under control dalio described what that might look like the trade-off it appears to me that a high enough interest rate to adequately contain inflation of what we might think is adequate is too high of an interest rate for the markets and the economy so that the trade-off that the fed is going to face will be an even greater more difficult trade-off between inflation growth think about it the tightening that would not be priced into the market might take it to two percent maybe give or take a bit two percent interest rate when you have something that could be a five percent inflation rate and you have the supply demand imbalance is something that is really a problem as you can see we're certainly stuck between a rock and a hard place what the officials in charge of policies decide is outside of your control in this case what can you do personally to handle stagflation when inflation is on the rise it hits everyone that being said there are a few things you can do to be proactive and protect your finances a little better everyone is on the lookout for the best place to store their wealth there are a lot of options for what to do with your money so let's look at a few basic ones invest in companies that are less affected by inflation one type of business that falls under this category is what warren buffett calls a business with low capital needs basically this means that the amount of revenue that the company needs to set aside just to finance its own operations is not a major source of spending a good way to frame this is to compare the amounts of money a software company needs to run itself versus the amounts of money a factory needs to run itself one needs office space and computers the other needs property protection and equipment by investing in companies with lower expenses you can have your wealth tied up in a stock that rises with the tide of inflation now there are many other factors that should be considered when investing in the stock market but this is one box that you should have checked consider digital assets like cryptocurrencies as issues with money printing become more and more apparent it becomes obvious that a better alternative is needed cryptocurrencies were built to solve issues with the traditional monetary system as currencies and stocks become more volatile the masses are beginning to take crypto more seriously that being said bitcoin hit over 67 000 just four months ago and it now sits at below 43 000 the volatility is not avoided by picking up cryptocurrencies but the system is built on different fundamentals if you want to learn a little more about this check out our video on raw paul and how crypto can level the playing field for younger generations the reality of our financial system is that older generations were able to scoop up the majority of assets at prices unlikely to be seen again for new adults it can seem pretty bleak they have all-time record real estate prices equity prices and more according to paul the way he explained it crypto essentially acts as an early stage venture capital opportunity that anyone can get in on it's liquid and individuals can dip their toes in a bit or dive in fully this open access is a new concept and brings with it new opportunities don't lock in your savings and settle for a low interest rate like we spoke about earlier in this video the federal reserve is tasked with raising interest rates fast enough to sow inflation yet slow enough to keep the economy stable interest rates are currently very low everywhere from government bonds to your local bank before you lock up your savings into a low interest rate account it might be smart to wait around for something higher right now it might seem counterintuitive to let your money sit in a savings account while it loses value because of this it might be a good idea to keep an eye out for a higher interest rate savings account and invest it intelligently in the meantime everyone we really appreciate you tuning back into profit protection remember this channel isn't financial advice rather we want to bring you the most important ideas from the smartest people in the room the crypto digital asset and financial market spaces are full of bright minds that can educate us profit protection wants to keep it informative and entertaining if you enjoyed this video please like and subscribe it helps us to continue producing high quality content for you guys thanks for watching and see you next time
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